Pythia gives Lynx a 31% win probability against Lions Gibraltar in the Gibraltar: Premier Division on 2026-04-19, with 24% for the draw and 45% for Lions Gibraltar. The model estimates around 3.4 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (86%).
Results analysis
Lynx finished 0-1 against Lions Gibraltar (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 31% home win, 24% draw and 45% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (86%).
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Lynx winâ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar winâ Hit
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Lynx
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.87
1.21
2.57
1.62
1.25
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
2.85
0.50
4.50
1.29
1.43
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.62
1.33
2.33
1.60
1.20
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.67
2.00
0.40
2.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.90
1.93
1.80
1.47
2.00
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
2.57
1.57
2.00
1.00
3.14
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.62
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.25
vs Weaker (8)
2.88
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.9%
No
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
5.5%
0-1 â
5.4%
0-0
4.4%
Lynx goals ↓
Lions Gibraltar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
5.4%
5.9%
3.6%
1.7%
1
4.2%
11%
8.9%
5.5%
2.6%
2
4.0%
7.3%
6.8%
4.2%
2.0%
3
2.0%
3.7%
3.5%
2.1%
1.0%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lynx goals (down), columns = Lions Gibraltar goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lynx is 0.33 points worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.59).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lynx is 0.56 goals worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.96).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Lynx is 0.04 goals worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.63).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lynx
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.54
0.92
0.88
0.59
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.83
0.40
1.20
0.71
0.57
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.00
0.67
1.67
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.33
0.60
0.20
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.00
1.13
0.87
0.93
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.50
0.86
1.14
0.71
1.86
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.50
2.25
0.75
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lynx over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →