Lynx enter the match after a 0-2 loss to Magpies, their recent five featuring four defeats, while Lions Gibraltar come off a 2-1 win over College 1975 and remain unbeaten in five outings. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.4 goals, centring on a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline at 10.4%. Home form shows Lynx averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.83 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Lions Gibraltar average 1.4 scored and only 1.0 conceded away. The model favours an away win, giving Lynx a 26% chance, a draw 24%, and Lions Gibraltar 51%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 97.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.8%, Under 6.5 at 94.5%, Away +2 handicap at 88.4%, Under 5.5 at 87.5%, Away over 0.5 goals at 86.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 86.1%, and Over 1.5 at 85.8%. These selections reflect the model’s assessment of the match’s likely flow.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lynx win
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar win
49.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lynx
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.67
1.29
1.93
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.36
0.50
3.75
1.43
1.57
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.75
1.50
1.83
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.43
1.75
0.25
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.73
2.00
1.57
1.75
1.88
vs Stronger (12)
1.67
2.58
1.67
1.67
1.67
3.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.75
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
2.78
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.7%
No
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
1-3
6.1%
0-1
5.9%
0-0
4.4%
Lynx goals ↓
Lions Gibraltar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
5.9%
6.7%
4.3%
2.1%
1
3.9%
11%
9.3%
6.1%
3.0%
2
3.4%
6.7%
6.5%
4.3%
2.1%
3
1.6%
3.1%
3.1%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lynx goals (down), columns = Lions Gibraltar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lynx is 0.33 points worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lynx is 0.56 goals worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Lynx is 0.04 goals worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lynx or Draw
50.6%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
49%
covers Lynx + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lynx or Lions Gibraltar
76.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
49%
covers Lynx + Lions Gibraltar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lions Gibraltar
73.3%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
49%
covers Draw + Lions Gibraltar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lynx over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 3.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lynx, so a minus line means Lynx give that many goals of a start and Lions Gibraltar receive them. At -1, Lynx must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lynx win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lynx)
Lynx -2
4.3%
Draw -2
7.9%
Lions Gibraltar +2
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lynx)
Lynx -1
12.2%
Draw -1
14.5%
Lions Gibraltar +1
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lynx)
Lynx +1
50.6%
Draw +1
20.6%
Lions Gibraltar -1
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lynx)
Lynx +2
71.2%
Draw +2
15.2%
Lions Gibraltar -2
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lynx
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.50
0.79
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.91
0.25
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.08
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.93
1.21
0.86
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.54
0.86
1.14
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.44
2.25
0.75
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lynx over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lynx
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.79
1.14
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.45
0.25
2.75
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.15
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lynx over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Lynx and Lions Gibraltar have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Lynx and Lions Gibraltar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Lynx and Lions Gibraltar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Lynx and Lions Gibraltar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe