Mons Calpe's recent form is a storyline to follow, having come off a defeat but also having scored 2.17 goals on average when playing against similar opponents away from home. This is in contrast to Lynx, who have struggled at home, conceding 1.67 goals on average against similar opponents. The model projects a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.6 goals. The most likely score is 1-2, with a probability of 9.4%.
The model's selection is the away win, with a probability of 56%. The model's selection for the match result is the away win. The model's selection for the total goals is Over 1.5, with a probability of 88%.
The most likely score is 1-2, with a probability of 9.4%. Lynx have scored 0.67 goals on average at home against similar opponents, while Mons Calpe have conceded 1.5 goals on average away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection for the match result is the away win, with a probability of 56%. The model's selection for the total goals is Over 1.5, with a probability of 88%. The model's selection for the home win percentage is 22%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 56%.
Results analysis
The Lynx's winless streak extended to six matches after a 2-3 defeat at home to Mons Calpe. The away team's victory marked the end of their three-match losing run. The model correctly predicted the away win, with Mons Calpe being the pre-match favourite at 56%. The model's selection, an away win, was the correct call. The model also suggested an Over 1.5 goals selection, which hit, with a probability of 88%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lynx win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe win✓ Hit
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lynx
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.87
1.15
2.54
1.53
1.35
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
2.85
0.50
4.50
1.29
1.43
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.62
1.00
2.00
1.33
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.67
2.00
0.40
2.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.57
1.53
1.53
2.53
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.00
0.33
2.33
1.50
1.75
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.67
2.00
1.57
2.20
1.80
vs Weaker (11)
2.64
1.18
1.60
1.00
3.50
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.2%
Under 2.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.9%
Under 3.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.0%
No
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%
1-1
9.3%
1-3
6.9%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
6.4%
2-1
5.7%
0-1
5.4%
0-3
5.1%
Lynx goals ↓
Mons Calpe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
5.4%
6.9%
5.1%
2.8%
1
3.0%
9.3%
9.4%
6.9%
3.8%
2
2.6%
5.7%
6.4%
4.7%
2.6%
3
1.2%
2.6%
2.9%
2.1%
1.2%
4
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lynx goals (down), columns = Mons Calpe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lynx is 0.70 points worse than Mons Calpe in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lynx is 0.93 goals worse than Mons Calpe in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Lynx is 0.37 goals worse than Mons Calpe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lynx
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.62
1.00
0.88
0.59
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.92
0.50
1.33
0.71
0.57
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.33
0.60
0.20
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.67
0.60
1.13
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.33
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.83
1.00
0.71
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.45
0.40
0.20
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lynx over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Europa
Lions Gibraltar
Magpies
Europa Point
Manchester 62
College 1975
Glacis United
Hound Dogs