Lyon’s recent 1-2 loss to Fenerbahçe has left the club looking to regain confidence, but the Pythia model still rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 63% chance to the result. The model’s confidence stems from Lyon’s strong home form against weaker opponents, averaging 1.8 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded, while Le Havre struggles on the road, conceding 2.17 goals and scoring just 0.67 against stronger teams. The expected total goals sit at 3.1, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 23%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 10.4% probability. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 63%, 22% and 15% respectively. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Under 7.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.6% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3% with a 1% edge), Under 6.5 (97.1% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.1% with a 5% edge), Home +2 handicap (93.7%) and Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.4% with a 2% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Lyon, was expected to win with a 63% probability, but the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call incorrect. Lyon had been coming off a draw, their recent form noted as “coming off a draw,” while Le Havre mirrored that with a similar note. The model’s selection of “Away under 2.5 HT goals” hit at 99.4%, as did “Under 7.5” at 99.0%. “Away under 2.5 2H goals” reached 98.6%, “Away under 3.5 goals” 98.3%, “Under 6.5” 97.1%, “Home under 2.5 HT goals” 95.1%, “Home +2 handicap” 93.7%, and “Away under 1.5 HT goals” 93.4%. All selections were settled and hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lyon win✗ Miss
62.9%
Avg Implied 64.6% · @ 1.47
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Draw✓ Hit
22.0%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.47
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.72
Dafabet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Pinnacle
4.64
Betano
4.60
Le Havre win✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied 14.2% · @ 6.69
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
7.40
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.96
Marathonbet
6.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.23
1.87
1.33
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.76
1.53
1.90
1.50
1.57
1.57
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
0.83
1.80
1.00
1.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Le Havre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.30
0.94
1.06
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.43
0.50
0.88
0.67
2.17
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.13
1.57
1.14
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.5%
@ 1.22+4.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
@ 4.09-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Unibet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
@ 1.74+3.7%
Under 2.5
41.6%
@ 2.10-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.74
Under
1xBet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.13
SBO
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
@ 2.79+2.4%
Under 3.5
64.0%
@ 1.42-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
@ 1.87+4.6%
No
45.6%
@ 1.86-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
No
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.5%@ 6.55+3.7%
1-1 ✓
10.4%@ 7.83+4.7%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.49+4.0%
1-0
9.1%@ 6.57+2.3%
3-0
7.4%@ 9.70+2.8%
3-1
6.9%@ 10.86+2.8%
0-0
5.8%@ 11.90+2.0%
2-2
4.7%@ 16.42+2.0%
Lyon goals ↓
Le Havre goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
3.6%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.1%
10%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
3
7.4%
6.9%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.8%
3.6%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lyon goals (down), columns = Le Havre goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lyon is 0.74 points better than Le Havre in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lyon is 0.62 goals better than Le Havre in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lyon is 0.12 goals better than Le Havre in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Lyon is 7.8 percentage points better than Le Havre in terms of average possession (55% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lyon
For 7.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 13.6 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Le Havre
For 3.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 14.7 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.5
4.7
4.2
5.2
25.3
25.4
25.2
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
10.0
18.0
7.5
9.0
6.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
vs Similar (25)
9.3
10.6
8.2
4.6
3.9
5.3
26.3
26.6
26.0
vs Weaker (23)
10.1
9.9
10.4
4.5
4.1
5.0
24.9
24.8
25.0
% over line
42%
48%
36%
66%
64%
68%
76%
80%
72%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
34%
36%
32%
24%
20%
28%
This opponent (Le Havre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Le Havre
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.5
9.8
4.0
4.2
3.8
26.9
27.0
26.7
vs Stronger (25)
9.1
8.0
10.1
3.9
4.0
3.8
26.3
27.2
25.5
vs Similar (24)
9.2
8.9
9.5
4.2
4.5
3.7
27.5
26.9
28.1
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
42%
38%
46%
60%
65%
54%
92%
100%
83%
% under line
58%
62%
54%
40%
35%
46%
8%
0%
17%
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.4
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.5
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Havre
9.1
Le Mans
9.1
Angers
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Lorient
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Lille
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Monaco
23.5
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.6
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.7%
@ 1.75+3.5%
Under 9.5
43.3%
@ 1.99-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.06
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.5%
@ 1.55-4.4%
Under 3.5
44.5%
@ 2.33+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.18
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.5%
Under 21.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lyon or Draw✓ Hit
82.6%
Avg Implied 85.1% · @ 1.11
Edge
-2.6%
63%
22%
15%
covers Lyon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Lyon or Le Havre✗ Miss
76.2%
Avg Implied 79.5% · @ 1.19
Edge
-3.3%
63%
22%
15%
covers Lyon + Le Havre
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Draw or Le Havre✓ Hit
41.2%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.67
Edge
+5.8%
63%
22%
15%
covers Draw + Le Havre
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.75
1xBet
2.74
Marathonbet
2.74
10Bet
2.70
Superbet
2.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lyon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.5%
@ 1.09+0.4%
Under
14.5%
@ 6.23-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Under
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Lyon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
57.5%
@ 1.55-2.9%
Under
42.5%
@ 2.36+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.44
Unibet
2.43
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Lyon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.5%
@ 2.74-3.6%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.42+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Lyon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 5.59-3.6%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.12+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Le Havre over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.1%
@ 1.66+6.0%
Under
37.9%
@ 2.12-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Le Havre over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.4%
@ 4.32+3.7%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.20-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.56
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Le Havre over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 12.25-0.2%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.02+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
12.50
Marathonbet
12.50
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Le Havre over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 35.00-1.1%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
40.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lyon, so a minus line means Lyon give that many goals of a start and Le Havre receive them. At -1, Lyon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lyon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lyon)Actual: Le Havre
Lyon -2
17.3%
@ 4.14-4.5%
Draw -2
18.3%
@ 4.25-2.9%
Le Havre +2
64.4%
@ 1.58+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
4.00
Away
Superbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Handicap -1 (Lyon)Actual: Le Havre
Lyon -1
35.6%
@ 2.23-4.8%
Draw -1
23.2%
@ 3.49-2.7%
Le Havre +1
41.2%
@ 2.67+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.74
Unibet
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Superbet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Handicap +1 (Lyon)Actual: Lyon
Lyon +1
82.6%
@ 1.10+1.4%
Draw +1
11.1%
@ 7.28-1.1%
Le Havre -1
6.3%
@ 13.56-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
14.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Handicap +2 (Lyon)Actual: Lyon
Lyon +2
93.7%
@ 1.02+0.3%
Draw +2
4.6%
@ 19.50-0.2%
Le Havre -2
1.7%
@ 56.00-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Draw
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.67
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.71
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.20
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Le Havre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.44
0.75
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.64
0.25
0.62
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.33+3.2%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.19-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.36
Superbet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.53+1.4%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.49-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.57
1xBet
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Under
Superbet
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.7%
@ 6.12-1.6%
Under 2.5
86.3%
@ 1.10+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
60.3%
@ 1.56+0.7%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.31-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.9%
@ 3.72-1.0%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.23+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Betano
3.80
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Under
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 9.42-5.0%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Le Havre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.4%
@ 2.96+4.9%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.36-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.23
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.89
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Le Havre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 11.31-1.8%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Le Havre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 50.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
1.20
0.67
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.94
0.82
1.20
0.60
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.50
1.20
0.80
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Le Havre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.50
0.31
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.79
0.25
0.25
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.40
0.86
0.43
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.2%
@ 1.20+3.0%
Under 0.5
18.8%
@ 4.29-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.6%
@ 1.95-0.7%
Under 1.5
52.4%
@ 1.82+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Betano
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.6%
@ 3.92-3.3%
Under 2.5
79.4%
@ 1.23+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.94
Marathonbet
3.94
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
67.5%
@ 1.39+0.7%
Under
32.5%
@ 2.80-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Under
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.9%
@ 2.77-2.5%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.39+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.85
1xBet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
Betano
2.72
10Bet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.5%
@ 6.73-4.3%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.07+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Le Havre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.3%
@ 2.41+2.7%
Under
58.7%
@ 1.51-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.44
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
Le Havre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 8.28-0.9%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.04+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Le Havre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 23.00-2.8%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.7%
1.02
Betfair
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.6%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.1%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
82.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.6%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.5%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.4%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
-
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.2%
1.19
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
-3.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.1%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.3%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
-
-
-
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
74.6%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.8%
1.33
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
+3.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lyon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Le Havre · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Issa Soumaré20%
Abdoulaye Touré18%
Noam Obougou Jacquet17%
Stephan Zagadou12%
Rassoul Ndiaye12%
Fodé Doucouré12%
Kenny Quetant10%
Mbwana Ally Samatta7%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Yassine Kechta6%
Felix Mambimbi6%
Sofiane Boufal6%
Arouna Sangante3%
Yanis Zouaoui3%
Gautier Lloris3%
Simon Ebonog3%
Loic Négo0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Younes Namli0%
Mory Diaw0%
Reda Khadra0%
Timothee Pembele0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lionel Mpasi Nzau50%
Lucas Gourna-Douath27%
Simon Ebonog26%
Yanis Zouaoui23%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue22%
Ayumu Seko20%
Abdoulaye Touré18%
Thomas Delaine17%
Younes Namli15%
Mbwana Ally Samatta15%
Timothee Pembele14%
Arouna Sangante14%
Enzo Koffi13%
Yassine Kechta13%
Sofiane Boufal12%
Kenny Quetant10%
Loic Négo10%
Fodé Doucouré8%
Felix Mambimbi6%
Rassoul Ndiaye6%
Issa Soumaré6%
Gautier Lloris3%
Mory Diaw3%
Godson Kyeremeh0%
Reda Khadra0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sofiane Boufal24%
Issa Soumaré14%
Rassoul Ndiaye9%
Younes Namli8%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Fodé Doucouré4%
Mbwana Ally Samatta4%
Arouna Sangante3%
Yanis Zouaoui3%
Gautier Lloris3%
Mory Diaw3%
Yassine Kechta3%
Felix Mambimbi0%
Loic Négo0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Abdoulaye Touré0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Reda Khadra0%
Timothee Pembele0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Simon Ebonog0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Kenny Quetant0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Issa Soumaré40%
Mbwana Ally Samatta15%
Timothee Pembele7%
Sofiane Boufal6%
Rassoul Ndiaye6%
Fodé Doucouré4%
Loic Négo3%
Simon Ebonog3%
Felix Mambimbi0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Abdoulaye Touré0%
Godson Kyeremeh0%
Yanis Zouaoui0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Younes Namli0%
Gautier Lloris0%
Mory Diaw0%
Reda Khadra0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Arouna Sangante0%
Yassine Kechta0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Kenny Quetant0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lyon's squad is €239m more valuable than Le Havre's (€293m vs €55m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lyon's attack is €113m more valuable than Le Havre's (€122m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lyon's midfield is €60m more valuable than Le Havre's (€82m vs €23m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lyon's defence is €66m more valuable than Le Havre's (€89m vs €23m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre