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Magpies vs Europa Point Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/10/2026
Time: 19:00
Magpies
Magpies
Vs
55%
23%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Europa Point
Europa Point
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Magpies, fresh from a 2-0 win over Lynx, are set to host Europa Point in a match that the model predicts will be high-scoring, with an expected 3.4 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1% chance. The model favours a home win, with a 55% probability, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of an away victory. At home, the Magpies average one goal scored and 0.75 conceded against weaker opposition, while Europa Point, playing away against stronger teams, averages one goal scored but 3.78 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (94.4%), Home +2 handicap (90.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.6%), Under 5.5 (87.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.2%) and Over 1.5 (85.9%). All selections carry their stated probabilities, with no other outcomes described.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Magpies win
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa Point win
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MagpiesMagpies

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L04L31W30W11D00D30W12L11D20WA·EUR13/12A·ST 20/12H·GLA10/01A·HOU17/01H·LIO24/01H·LYN06/02A·EUR20/02H·LIN05/03A·LIO22/08H·LYN29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.631.001.351.232.00
vs Stronger (8)0.503.120.752.250.254.00
vs Similar (14)1.141.501.111.221.202.00
vs Weaker (8)1.620.381.000.752.250.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Europa PointEuropa Point

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-713L03L12L43W10W12L03L07L22D02LA·LYN13/12H·EUR21/12H·LIN10/01A·COL16/01H·MAN24/01A·MON09/02H·MAG20/02H·ST 03/03A·LYN23/08H·EUR30/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.302.971.002.731.603.20
vs Stronger (19)0.953.470.903.201.003.78
vs Similar (9)1.562.221.501.501.602.80
vs Weaker (2)3.501.500.003.007.000.00
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%318%412%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.4%
Under 2.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
6.7%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.3%
Magpies goals ↓
Europa Point goals →
01234
04.4%3.5%2.8%1.2%0.4%
16.3%10%5.9%2.5%0.8%
27.5%9.6%6.1%2.6%0.8%
35.3%6.7%4.3%1.8%0.6%
42.7%3.5%2.2%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Magpies goals (down), columns = Europa Point goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Magpies is 0.27 points better than Europa Point in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Magpies is 0.27 goals worse than Europa Point in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.41).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Magpies is 1.32 goals better than Europa Point in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 2.77).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Magpies or Draw
78.0%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers Magpies + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Magpies or Europa Point
77.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers Magpies + Europa Point
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Europa Point
44.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
23%
22%
covers Draw + Europa Point
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Magpies over/under 0.5
Over
87.6%
Under
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 3.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Magpies, so a minus line means Magpies give that many goals of a start and Europa Point receive them. At -1, Magpies must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Magpies win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Magpies)
Magpies -2
17.0%
Draw -2
16.9%
Europa Point +2
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Magpies)
Magpies -1
33.9%
Draw -1
21.3%
Europa Point +1
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Magpies)
Magpies +1
78.0%
Draw +1
12.6%
Europa Point -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Magpies)
Magpies +2
90.6%
Draw +2
6.3%
Europa Point -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MagpiesMagpies

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W10W03L10W30W01L00D11D10WH·MAN29/11H·MON06/12A·EUR13/12A·ST 20/12H·GLA10/01A·HOU17/01H·LIO24/01H·LYN06/02H·LIN05/03H·LYN29/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.720.610.670.92
vs Stronger (8)0.251.620.501.250.002.00
vs Similar (15)0.800.600.900.600.600.60
vs Weaker (7)1.000.000.500.001.670.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Europa PointEuropa Point

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D00D11D11D10W01L01L01L00DH·LIO07/12A·LYN13/12H·EUR21/12H·LIN10/01A·COL16/01H·MAN24/01A·MON09/02H·ST 03/03A·LYN23/08H·EUR30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.130.500.860.501.38
vs Stronger (19)0.471.260.561.000.401.50
vs Similar (9)0.441.000.500.500.401.40
vs Weaker (2)1.000.500.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MagpiesMagpies

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L01L21W00D10W00D01L10WH·MAN29/11H·MON06/12A·EUR13/12A·ST 20/12H·GLA10/01A·HOU17/01H·LIO24/01H·LYN06/02H·LIN05/03H·LYN29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.440.720.501.25
vs Stronger (8)0.251.500.251.000.252.00
vs Similar (15)0.600.870.500.600.801.40
vs Weaker (7)0.430.430.500.750.330.00
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Europa PointEuropa Point

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W02L03L01L32W00D11D06L21W02LH·LIO07/12A·LYN13/12H·EUR21/12H·LIN10/01A·COL16/01H·MAN24/01A·MON09/02H·ST 03/03A·LYN23/08H·EUR30/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.830.571.861.001.81
vs Stronger (19)0.472.210.442.220.502.20
vs Similar (9)1.111.221.001.001.201.40
vs Weaker (2)2.501.000.002.005.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.9%-------
Under 6.594.4%-------
Home +2 handicap90.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.6%-------
Under 5.587.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals86.2%-------
Over 1.585.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals84.0%-------
Home or Draw78.0%-------
Home +1 handicap78.0%-------
Home or Away77.2%-------
Under 4.575.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals72.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Magpies and Europa Point have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Magpies and Europa Point have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Magpies and Europa Point have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Magpies and Europa Point have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
MAG wins
2
Draws
1
EP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Magpies vs Europa Point · H/A from MAG
DateH/AGameScore
20/02/26AEuropa Point Vs MAG0-3
02/11/25HMAG Vs Europa Point0-1
23/11/24AEuropa Point Vs MAG0-7
19/10/24HMAG Vs Europa Point3-2
19/04/24AEuropa Point Vs MAG0-0
12/04/24HMAG Vs Europa Point2-2
16/12/23AEuropa Point Vs MAG0-1
29/10/22HMAG Vs Europa Point7-0

MagpiesMagpies

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMAG Vs Lynx2-0
22/08/26ALions Gibraltar Vs MAG1-1
05/03/26HMAG Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC1-2
20/02/26AEuropa Point Vs MAG0-3
06/02/26HMAG Vs Lynx0-0
24/01/26HMAG Vs Lions Gibraltar1-1
17/01/26AHound Dogs Vs MAG0-3
10/01/26HMAG Vs Glacis United3-1
20/12/25ASt Joseph S Fc Vs MAG4-0
13/12/25AEuropa Vs MAG2-1

Europa PointEuropa Point

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HEP Vs Europa0-2
23/08/26ALynx Vs EP2-2
03/03/26HEP Vs St Joseph S Fc0-7
20/02/26HEP Vs Magpies0-3
09/02/26AMons Calpe Vs EP2-1
24/01/26HEP Vs Manchester 621-0
16/01/26ACollege 1975 Vs EP3-4
10/01/26HEP Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC1-2
21/12/25HEP Vs Europa0-3
13/12/25ALynx Vs EP3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Magpies
Magpies
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDW1.32
HomeWDDLW1.31
AwayLLWWD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%42%
AVG goals3.162.813.54
Over 1.5 %82%77%88%
Over 2.5 %62%54%71%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.621.351.92
Conceded1.541.461.62
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet30%23%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Europa Point
Europa Point
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL0.70
HomeLWLLL0.67
AwayWLWLD0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%17%19%
AVG goals4.003.834.15
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %80%75%85%
Over 3.5 %58%50%65%
Scored1.080.751.38
Conceded2.923.082.77
BTTS48%42%54%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1EuropaEuropa24
50%
2.0
42+2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1002.01.0
-
2MagpiesMagpies24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.50.5
-
3Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.0
-
4Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC13
100%
3.0
20+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.00.0
-
5St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc13
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0012.01.0
-
6Hound DogsHound Dogs11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
7College 1975College 197521
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.5
-
8LynxLynx21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.0
-
9Glacis UnitedGlacis United21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.0
-
10Europa PointEuropa Point21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.0
-
11Mons CalpeMons Calpe10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.0
-
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →

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