Magpies are the clear favourite, their 71% win probability and a 1-0home win in their last match giving the model a strong edge. The model picks a home win as the most likely outcome, with a 19% chance of a draw and only 10% for a Hound Dogs victory. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 11.7% probability. At home, the Magpies average 1.0 goal scored and 0.75 conceded against weaker opposition, while the Hound Dogs, playing away against a stronger side, average only 0.67 scored and 3.22 conceded. Suggested picks include an away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, an away under 3.5 goals at 99.1%, an away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7%, an overall under 7.5 goals at 98.5%, a home +2 handicap at 96.7%, an under 6.5 at 95.8%, an away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.5%, and an away under 2.5 goals at 95.1%. These selections reflect the Magpies’ dominance at home and the Hound Dogs’ defensive frailty on the road.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Magpies win
70.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs win
10.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Magpies
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.63
1.00
1.35
1.23
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.12
0.75
2.25
0.25
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.50
1.11
1.22
1.20
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.38
1.00
0.75
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
2.91
0.33
3.08
0.64
2.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
3.44
0.22
3.67
0.67
3.22
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.2%
3-0
9.2%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
5.4%
0-0
5.1%
Magpies goals ↓
Hound Dogs goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
2.7%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
1
9.2%
8.9%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
9.5%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.2%
7.4%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
5.4%
4.3%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Magpies goals (down), columns = Hound Dogs goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Magpies is 0.91 points better than Hound Dogs in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Magpies is 0.68 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Magpies is 1.55 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Magpies or Draw
89.6%
Avg Implied -
71%
19%
10%
covers Magpies + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Magpies or Hound Dogs
81.2%
Avg Implied -
71%
19%
10%
covers Magpies + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hound Dogs
29.2%
Avg Implied -
71%
19%
10%
covers Draw + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Magpies over/under 0.5
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 3.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Magpies, so a minus line means Magpies give that many goals of a start and Hound Dogs receive them. At -1, Magpies must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Magpies win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Magpies)
Magpies -2
27.4%
Draw -2
21.1%
Hound Dogs +2
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Magpies)
Magpies -1
48.5%
Draw -1
22.2%
Hound Dogs +1
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Magpies)
Magpies +1
89.6%
Draw +1
7.2%
Hound Dogs -1
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Magpies)
Magpies +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.5%
Hound Dogs -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Magpies
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.72
0.61
0.67
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.62
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.60
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
1.57
0.08
1.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.78
0.11
2.00
0.33
1.56
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.4%
Under 1.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.9%
Under 2.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HT
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HT
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Magpies
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.44
0.72
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.50
0.60
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.26
1.35
0.25
1.33
0.27
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.67
0.11
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.4%
Under 0.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.2%
Under 1.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.2%
Under 2.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2H
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Magpies and Hound Dogs have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Magpies and Hound Dogs have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Magpies and Hound Dogs have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Magpies and Hound Dogs have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →