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Magpies vs Hound Dogs Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/09/2026
Time: 19:00
Magpies
Magpies
Vs
71%
19%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hound Dogs
Hound Dogs
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Magpies are the clear favourite, their 71% win probability and a 1-0 home win in their last match giving the model a strong edge. The model picks a home win as the most likely outcome, with a 19% chance of a draw and only 10% for a Hound Dogs victory. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 11.7% probability. At home, the Magpies average 1.0 goal scored and 0.75 conceded against weaker opposition, while the Hound Dogs, playing away against a stronger side, average only 0.67 scored and 3.22 conceded. Suggested picks include an away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, an away under 3.5 goals at 99.1%, an away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7%, an overall under 7.5 goals at 98.5%, a home +2 handicap at 96.7%, an under 6.5 at 95.8%, an away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.5%, and an away under 2.5 goals at 95.1%. These selections reflect the Magpies’ dominance at home and the Hound Dogs’ defensive frailty on the road.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Magpies win
70.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs win
10.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MagpiesMagpies

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L04L31W30W11D00D30W12L11D20WA·EUR13/12A·ST 20/12H·GLA10/01A·HOU17/01H·LIO24/01H·LYN06/02A·EUR20/02H·LIN05/03A·LIO22/08H·LYN29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.631.001.351.232.00
vs Stronger (8)0.503.120.752.250.254.00
vs Similar (14)1.141.501.111.221.202.00
vs Weaker (8)1.620.381.000.752.250.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hound DogsHound Dogs

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L13L11D03L06L11D06L03L15L11DH·COL14/12H·MAN19/12A·MON11/01H·MAG17/01A·ST 25/01H·GLA08/02A·EUR22/02H·LIN26/02A·LIO08/03H·COL21/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.482.910.333.080.642.73
vs Stronger (18)0.443.440.223.670.673.22
vs Similar (5)0.601.000.671.330.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %9% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.2%
3-0
9.2%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
5.4%
0-0
5.1%
Magpies goals ↓
Hound Dogs goals →
01234
05.1%2.7%1.4%0.4%0.1%
19.2%8.9%3.3%0.9%0.2%
212%9.5%3.9%1.0%0.2%
39.2%7.4%3.0%0.8%0.2%
45.4%4.3%1.8%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Magpies goals (down), columns = Hound Dogs goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Magpies is 0.91 points better than Hound Dogs in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Magpies is 0.68 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.45).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Magpies is 1.55 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 3.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Magpies or Draw
89.6%
Avg Implied -
71%
19%
10%
covers Magpies + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Magpies or Hound Dogs
81.2%
Avg Implied -
71%
19%
10%
covers Magpies + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hound Dogs
29.2%
Avg Implied -
71%
19%
10%
covers Draw + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Magpies over/under 0.5
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 3.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Magpies, so a minus line means Magpies give that many goals of a start and Hound Dogs receive them. At -1, Magpies must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Magpies win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Magpies)
Magpies -2
27.4%
Draw -2
21.1%
Hound Dogs +2
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Magpies)
Magpies -1
48.5%
Draw -1
22.2%
Hound Dogs +1
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Magpies)
Magpies +1
89.6%
Draw +1
7.2%
Hound Dogs -1
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Magpies)
Magpies +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.5%
Hound Dogs -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MagpiesMagpies

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W10W03L10W30W01L00D11D10WH·MAN29/11H·MON06/12A·EUR13/12A·ST 20/12H·GLA10/01A·HOU17/01H·LIO24/01H·LYN06/02H·LIN05/03H·LYN29/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.720.610.670.92
vs Stronger (8)0.251.620.501.250.002.00
vs Similar (15)0.800.600.900.600.600.60
vs Weaker (7)1.000.000.500.001.670.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hound DogsHound Dogs

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L00D03L01L01L04L02L13L00DH·COL14/12H·MAN19/12A·MON11/01H·MAG17/01A·ST 25/01H·GLA08/02A·EUR22/02H·LIN26/02A·LIO08/03H·COL21/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.221.570.081.750.361.36
vs Stronger (18)0.221.780.112.000.331.56
vs Similar (5)0.200.800.001.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.4%
Under 1.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.9%
Under 2.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HT
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HT
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MagpiesMagpies

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L01L21W00D10W00D01L10WH·MAN29/11H·MON06/12A·EUR13/12A·ST 20/12H·GLA10/01A·HOU17/01H·LIO24/01H·LYN06/02H·LIN05/03H·LYN29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.440.720.501.25
vs Stronger (8)0.251.500.251.000.252.00
vs Similar (15)0.600.870.500.600.801.40
vs Weaker (7)0.430.430.500.750.330.00
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hound DogsHound Dogs

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D12L11D00D05L10W02L01L02L11DH·COL14/12H·MAN19/12A·MON11/01H·MAG17/01A·ST 25/01H·GLA08/02A·EUR22/02H·LIN26/02A·LIO08/03H·COL21/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.261.350.251.330.271.36
vs Stronger (18)0.221.670.111.670.331.67
vs Similar (5)0.400.200.670.330.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.4%
Under 0.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.2%
Under 1.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.2%
Under 2.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2H
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals99.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals99.1%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals98.7%-------
Under 7.598.5%-------
Home +2 handicap96.7%-------
Under 6.595.8%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals95.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals95.1%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals92.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals90.4%-------
Under 5.590.0%-------
Home or Draw89.6%-------
Home +1 handicap89.6%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals85.9%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals85.4%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals83.4%-------
Over 1.583.0%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals82.1%-------
Home or Away81.2%-------
Away under 1.5 goals80.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals79.1%-------
Under 4.579.0%-------
Away under 0.5 HT goals75.1%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals74.8%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals74.0%-------
Home over 0.5 2H goals72.2%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals72.1%-------
Home win70.8%-------
Home over 0.5 HT goals70.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Magpies and Hound Dogs have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Magpies and Hound Dogs have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Magpies and Hound Dogs have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Magpies and Hound Dogs have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
MAG wins
0
Draws
0
HD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Magpies vs Hound Dogs · H/A from MAG
DateH/AGameScore
17/01/26AHound Dogs Vs MAG0-3
04/10/25HMAG Vs Hound Dogs1-0

MagpiesMagpies

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMAG Vs Lynx2-0
22/08/26ALions Gibraltar Vs MAG1-1
05/03/26HMAG Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC1-2
20/02/26AEuropa Point Vs MAG0-3
06/02/26HMAG Vs Lynx0-0
24/01/26HMAG Vs Lions Gibraltar1-1
17/01/26AHound Dogs Vs MAG0-3
10/01/26HMAG Vs Glacis United3-1
20/12/25ASt Joseph S Fc Vs MAG4-0
13/12/25AEuropa Vs MAG2-1

Hound DogsHound Dogs

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/26HHD Vs College 19751-1
08/03/26ALions Gibraltar Vs HD5-1
26/02/26HHD Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC0-3
22/02/26AEuropa Vs HD6-0
08/02/26HHD Vs Glacis United1-1
25/01/26ASt Joseph S Fc Vs HD6-0
17/01/26HHD Vs Magpies0-3
11/01/26AMons Calpe Vs HD1-1
19/12/25HHD Vs Manchester 621-3
14/12/25HHD Vs College 19750-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Magpies
Magpies
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDW1.32
HomeWDDLW1.31
AwayLLWWD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%42%
AVG goals3.162.813.54
Over 1.5 %82%77%88%
Over 2.5 %62%54%71%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.621.351.92
Conceded1.541.461.62
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet30%23%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Hound Dogs
Hound Dogs
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLD0.39
HomeLLDLD0.25
AwayLDLLL0.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %4%0%9%
AVG goals3.393.423.36
Over 1.5 %91%100%82%
Over 2.5 %61%67%55%
Over 3.5 %43%42%45%
Scored0.480.330.64
Conceded2.913.082.73
BTTS35%33%36%
Clean Sheet9%0%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1EuropaEuropa24
50%
2.0
42+2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1002.01.0
-
2MagpiesMagpies24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.50.5
-
3Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.0
-
4Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC13
100%
3.0
20+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.00.0
-
5St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc13
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0012.01.0
-
6Hound DogsHound Dogs11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
7College 1975College 197521
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.5
-
8LynxLynx21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.0
-
9Glacis UnitedGlacis United21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.0
-
10Europa PointEuropa Point21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.0
-
11Mons CalpeMons Calpe10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.0
-
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →

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