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Magpies vs Lincoln Red Imps FC Result & Analysis

Date: 05/05/2024
Time: 17:30
Final 0-3
Magpies
Magpies
Vs
15%
17%
68%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Magpies win✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC win✓ Hit
67.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MagpiesMagpies

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-703L31W34L72W22D21W21W22D00D02LA·LIN28/01H·LIO04/02A·EUR11/02H·COL17/02A·ST 24/02H·LYN01/03A·GLA30/03H·EUR12/04A·EUR19/04A·ST 28/04
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.302.211.072.001.50
vs Stronger (7)0.712.140.671.670.752.50
vs Similar (14)2.431.212.000.862.861.57
vs Weaker (9)2.670.783.751.001.800.60
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1082W10W70W21W20W21W60W101W40W51WA·GLA04/02H·EUR10/02A·MAN17/02H·MON23/02A·LIO08/03H·EUR31/03A·COL13/04A·MAN21/04H·EUR27/04H·MON30/04
Avg total
5.3
Avg scored
4.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.100.902.731.003.470.80
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.002.000.004.00
vs Similar (11)3.091.182.001.604.000.83
vs Weaker (17)3.410.473.330.563.500.38
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.9%
Under 1.5
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.2%
Under 2.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.6%
No
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.5%
1-3
7.9%
1-1
6.8%
0-2
6.6%
0-3 ✓
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
1-4
5.5%
2-3
5.1%
Magpies goals ↓
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals →
01234
02.3%4.1%6.6%6.1%4.2%
11.6%6.8%8.5%7.9%5.5%
21.4%4.0%5.5%5.1%3.5%
30.6%1.7%2.4%2.2%1.5%
40.2%0.6%0.8%0.7%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Magpies goals (down), columns = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.60
St Joseph S Fc
2.52
Magpies
1.84
Europa Point
1.40
Lynx
1.35
Mons Calpe
1.32
Manchester 62
1.16
Europa
1.00
Glacis United
0.80
Lions Gibraltar
0.65
College 1975
0.55
Magpies is 0.76 points worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of average points per game (1.84 vs 2.60).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.44
St Joseph S Fc
2.48
Magpies
2.20
Manchester 62
1.76
Mons Calpe
1.48
Lynx
1.45
Europa Point
1.28
Europa
1.25
Glacis United
1.05
College 1975
1.05
Lions Gibraltar
0.80
Magpies is 1.24 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 3.44).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.60
St Joseph S Fc
0.64
Europa Point
1.24
Magpies
1.44
Lynx
1.55
Mons Calpe
1.56
Europa
1.70
Glacis United
2.35
Lions Gibraltar
2.50
Manchester 62
2.56
College 1975
3.25
Magpies is 0.84 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 0.60).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MagpiesMagpies

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L20W11D51W01L10W10W11D00D01LA·LIN28/01H·LIO04/02A·EUR11/02H·COL17/02A·ST 24/02H·LYN01/03A·GLA30/03H·EUR12/04A·EUR19/04A·ST 28/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.501.500.570.940.44
vs Stronger (7)0.430.860.671.000.250.75
vs Similar (14)1.210.501.000.431.430.57
vs Weaker (9)1.780.223.000.500.800.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W00D40W10W10W01L30W40W10W30WA·GLA04/02H·EUR10/02A·MAN17/02H·MON23/02A·LIO08/03H·EUR31/03A·COL13/04A·MAN21/04H·EUR27/04H·MON30/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.231.200.201.800.27
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (11)1.180.360.400.601.830.17
vs Weaker (17)1.820.061.670.002.000.12
Clean sheet %80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MagpiesMagpies

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D23L21W21W11D11D11D00D01LA·LIN28/01H·LIO04/02A·EUR11/02H·COL17/02A·ST 24/02H·LYN01/03A·GLA30/03H·EUR12/04A·EUR19/04A·ST 28/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.800.710.501.061.06
vs Stronger (7)0.291.290.000.670.501.75
vs Similar (14)1.210.711.000.431.431.00
vs Weaker (9)0.890.560.750.501.000.60
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W10W30W11D10W20W30W61W30W21WA·GLA04/02H·EUR10/02A·MAN17/02H·MON23/02A·LIO08/03H·EUR31/03A·COL13/04A·MAN21/04H·EUR27/04H·MON30/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.671.530.801.670.53
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (11)1.910.821.601.002.170.67
vs Weaker (17)1.590.411.670.561.500.25
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.577.2%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kike GÃģmez33%
Christian Rutjens25%
Nicholas Pozo20%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael MuÃąoz0%
Juanje ArgÞez0%
Toni0%
Victor VillacaÃąas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayman El Ghobashy67%
Mandi60%
Graeme Torrilla50%
Jaylan Hankins40%
Joe33%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo33%
Tjay De Barr17%
Kike GÃģmez17%
Toni Kolega0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael MuÃąoz0%
Juanje ArgÞez0%
Toni0%
Victor VillacaÃąas Morales0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe33%
Toni Kolega17%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Juanje ArgÞez17%
Mandi0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael MuÃąoz0%
Toni0%
Kike GÃģmez0%
Victor VillacaÃąas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nano20%
Kike GÃģmez17%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael MuÃąoz0%
Juanje ArgÞez0%
Toni0%
Victor VillacaÃąas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
Magpies's squad is €1m less valuable than Lincoln Red Imps FC's (€1m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Magpies and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
Magpies and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
Magpies and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
MAG wins
1
Draws
3
LRI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Magpies vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · H/A from MAG
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/24ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs MAG3-0
25/10/23HMAG Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC0-0
25/02/23ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs MAG3-1
08/01/23HMAG Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC1-5
18/12/22ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs MAG1-3

MagpiesMagpies

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24ASt Joseph S Fc Vs MAG2-0
19/04/24AEuropa Point Vs MAG0-0
12/04/24HMAG Vs Europa Point2-2
30/03/24AGlacis United Vs MAG1-2
01/03/24HMAG Vs Lynx2-1
24/02/24ASt Joseph S Fc Vs MAG2-2
17/02/24HMAG Vs College 19757-2
11/02/24AEuropa Vs MAG4-3
04/02/24HMAG Vs Lions Gibraltar3-1
28/01/24ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs MAG3-0

Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/04/24HLRI Vs Mons Calpe5-1
27/04/24HLRI Vs Europa Point4-0
21/04/24AManchester 62 Vs LRI1-10
13/04/24ACollege 1975 Vs LRI0-6
31/03/24HLRI Vs Europa2-1
08/03/24ALions Gibraltar Vs LRI0-2
23/02/24HLRI Vs Mons Calpe2-1
17/02/24AManchester 62 Vs LRI0-7
10/02/24HLRI Vs Europa Point1-0
04/02/24AGlacis United Vs LRI2-8

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Magpies
Magpies
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.83
HomeWWWWD1.95
AwayLDWDL1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%59%50%
AVG goals3.263.183.33
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %63%59%67%
Over 3.5 %43%36%50%
Scored2.072.142.00
Conceded1.201.051.33
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet35%41%29%
Corners8.008.008.00
Cards5.756.505.00
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.32
HomeWWWWW2.33
AwayWWWWW2.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%78%74%
AVG goals3.923.854.00
Over 1.5 %88%89%87%
Over 2.5 %74%81%65%
Over 3.5 %50%52%48%
Scored3.083.003.17
Conceded0.840.850.83
BTTS44%52%35%
Clean Sheet46%44%48%
Corners8.837.2512.00
Cards3.504.002.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC2565
84%
2.6
8615+71
4.0
88%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.40.6
-
2St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc2563
80%
2.5
6216+46
3.1
84%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0012.50.6
-
3MagpiesMagpies2546
56%
1.8
5536+19
3.6
84%
68%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.4
-
4Europa PointEuropa Point2535
40%
1.4
3231+1
2.5
64%
48%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.2
-
5Mons CalpeMons Calpe2533
36%
1.3
3739-2
3.0
88%
60%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.6
-
6Manchester 62Manchester 622529
36%
1.2
4464-20
4.3
92%
76%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.6
-
7LynxLynx2027
40%
1.4
2931-2
3.0
85%
60%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
8EuropaEuropa2020
30%
1.0
2534-9
3.0
65%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1001.21.7
-
9Glacis UnitedGlacis United2016
25%
0.8
2147-26
3.4
80%
65%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.12.4
-
10Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar2013
15%
0.7
1650-34
3.3
85%
65%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.82.5
-
11College 1975College 19752011
15%
0.6
2165-44
4.3
90%
75%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.13.2
-
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →

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