Magpies are tipped to win the Gibraltar Premier Division clash against Lynx, with a 45% chance of victory, 27% for a draw and 28% for an away win. The average goal total sits at 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the encounter.
At home the Magpies average one goal scored and concede 1.38 against similar opposition, while Lynx, on the road, score 1.67 and concede 1.33. Both sides have shown modest offensive output, suggesting a tight match.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.0%) and Under 5.5 (93.5%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Results analysis
The Magpies’ recent win keeps their momentum alive as they faced the Lynx at home. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win, a 45% chance, and it proved correct with a 2-0 victory. The predicted total of 2.8 goals materialised as the match ended 2-0, matching the most likely scoreline of 2-1. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.2%, and Under 5.5 at 93.5%. The model’s selections dominated, confirming the predicted outcome and the low-scoring nature of the game.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Magpies win✓ Hit
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lynx win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Magpies
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.67
0.94
1.44
1.29
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.12
0.75
2.25
0.25
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.57
1.00
1.38
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.38
1.00
0.75
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lynx
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.60
1.29
1.93
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.36
0.50
3.75
1.43
1.57
vs Similar (12)
1.58
1.58
1.50
1.83
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.43
1.75
0.25
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.5%
2-0 ✓
7.7%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.6%
Magpies goals ↓
Lynx goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.1%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
1
8.5%
13%
7.0%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.3%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.1%
5.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.6%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Magpies goals (down), columns = Lynx goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Magpies is 0.01 points better than Lynx in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Magpies is 0.27 goals worse than Lynx in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Magpies is 0.21 goals better than Lynx in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Magpies or Draw✓ Hit
72.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Magpies + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Magpies or Lynx✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Magpies + Lynx
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lynx✗ Miss
54.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Lynx
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Magpies over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Magpies, so a minus line means Magpies give that many goals of a start and Lynx receive them. At -1, Magpies must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Magpies win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Magpies)Actual: Draw
Magpies -2
9.9%
Draw -2
14.1%
Lynx +2
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Magpies)Actual: Magpies
Magpies -1
23.9%
Draw -1
21.4%
Lynx +1
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Magpies)Actual: Magpies
Magpies +1
72.3%
Draw +1
15.8%
Lynx -1
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Magpies)Actual: Magpies
Magpies +2
88.2%
Draw +2
8.0%
Lynx -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Magpies
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.71
0.65
0.69
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.62
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.64
0.89
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lynx
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.50
0.79
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.91
0.25
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.17
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.6%
Under 0.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.8%
Under 1.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Magpies
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.41
0.76
0.77
1.15
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.93
0.44
0.67
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.38
0.50
0.75
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lynx
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.79
1.14
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.45
0.25
2.75
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.58
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.1%
Under 0.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.3%
Under 1.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.0%
Under 2.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.5%
Under
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Magpies and Lynx have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Magpies and Lynx have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Magpies and Lynx have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Magpies and Lynx have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →