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Maidenhead vs Tamworth Result & Analysis

Date: 05/04/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
M
Maidenhead
Vs
31%
28%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tamworth
Tamworth
England: National League
Referee: R Watkins

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maidenhead win✓ Hit
30.8%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.12
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.31
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tamworth win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied 42.4% · @ 2.18
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

M
Maidenhead

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L13L02L33D01L20W01L11D01LA·OLD18/02H·YEO22/02H·YOR25/02A·FOR01/03H·BRA04/03H·SUT08/03A·GAT15/03H·ALD18/03H·ROC22/03A·DAG29/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.771.381.690.791.86
vs Stronger (2)2.000.503.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (6)1.331.332.331.330.331.33
vs Weaker (22)0.952.001.001.920.902.10
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TamworthTamworth

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L11D11D32W41W11D31W20W20WA·WOK15/02A·YEO18/02H·SOU22/02H·ROC25/02A·EBB01/03H·WEA04/03H·OLD08/03A·DAG15/03A·GAT22/03H·EAS29/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.271.381.001.211.57
vs Stronger (10)1.101.400.831.171.501.75
vs Similar (20)1.401.201.700.901.101.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.89+0.5%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.85-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
8.8%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
1-0
7.2%
0-2
7.2%
2-2
5.4%
Maidenhead goals ↓
Tamworth goals →
01234
08.1%8.8%7.2%3.5%1.3%
17.2%13%8.9%4.3%1.5%
25.2%7.5%5.4%2.6%0.9%
32.1%3.1%2.2%1.1%0.4%
40.7%0.9%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maidenhead goals (down), columns = Tamworth goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barnet
2.22
York
2.09
Forest Green
1.80
Rochdale
1.61
Oldham
1.59
Halifax
1.52
Southend
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Tamworth
1.39
Altrincham
1.39
Sutton
1.30
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Solihull
1.26
Woking
1.26
Aldershot
1.24
Braintree Town
1.22
Yeovil
1.22
Boston Utd
1.20
Wealdstone
1.15
Dag and Red
1.13
Maidenhead
1.13
Fylde
0.87
Ebbsfleet
0.48
Maidenhead is 0.26 points worse than Tamworth in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Barnet
2.11
York
2.07
Gateshead
1.65
Forest Green
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Altrincham
1.48
Tamworth
1.41
Oldham
1.39
Dag and Red
1.33
Solihull
1.33
Sutton
1.28
Southend
1.28
Hartlepool
1.28
Eastleigh
1.26
Maidenhead
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Boston Utd
1.17
Woking
1.13
Braintree Town
1.11
Yeovil
1.11
Halifax
1.09
Fylde
1.09
Ebbsfleet
0.83
Maidenhead is 0.17 goals worse than Tamworth in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.41).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Barnet
0.83
Forest Green
0.91
York
0.91
Rochdale
0.96
Halifax
1.00
Oldham
1.04
Southend
1.04
Braintree Town
1.28
Woking
1.28
Yeovil
1.30
Eastleigh
1.33
Dag and Red
1.35
Altrincham
1.35
Hartlepool
1.35
Sutton
1.39
Boston Utd
1.46
Solihull
1.46
Gateshead
1.48
Tamworth
1.57
Maidenhead
1.63
Wealdstone
1.65
Aldershot
1.80
Fylde
1.85
Ebbsfleet
2.13
Maidenhead is 0.07 goals worse than Tamworth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
York
63%
Barnet
62%
Gateshead
60%
Rochdale
55%
Southend
53%
Altrincham
51%
Oldham
51%
Aldershot
51%
Woking
50%
Forest Green
50%
Solihull
50%
Yeovil
49%
Sutton
49%
Wealdstone
49%
Halifax
49%
Fylde
46%
Eastleigh
46%
Hartlepool
45%
Braintree Town
45%
Ebbsfleet
44%
Maidenhead
41%
Tamworth
40%
Maidenhead is 0.8 percentage points better than Tamworth in terms of average possession (41% vs 40%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

M
Maidenhead

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L01L12L01L10W00D01L00DA·OLD18/02H·YEO22/02H·YOR25/02A·FOR01/03H·BRA04/03H·SUT08/03A·GAT15/03H·ALD18/03H·ROC22/03A·DAG29/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.500.690.501.00
vs Stronger (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (6)0.670.331.330.330.000.33
vs Weaker (22)0.411.050.250.830.601.30
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TamworthTamworth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W10W31W00D11D11D00D00DA·WOK15/02A·YEO18/02H·SOU22/02H·ROC25/02A·EBB01/03H·WEA04/03H·OLD08/03A·DAG15/03A·GAT22/03H·EAS29/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.500.440.500.71
vs Stronger (10)0.600.900.330.671.001.25
vs Similar (20)0.450.400.600.300.300.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maidenhead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

M
Maidenhead

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L12L01L21W00D10W01L10W01LA·OLD18/02H·YEO22/02H·YOR25/02A·FOR01/03H·BRA04/03H·SUT08/03A·GAT15/03H·ALD18/03H·ROC22/03A·DAG29/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.930.881.000.290.86
vs Stronger (2)1.000.502.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (6)0.671.001.001.000.331.00
vs Weaker (22)0.550.950.751.080.300.80
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamworth) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TamworthTamworth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L01L01L01L41W00D20W20W20WA·WOK15/02A·YEO18/02H·SOU22/02H·ROC25/02A·EBB01/03H·WEA04/03H·OLD08/03A·DAG15/03A·GAT22/03H·EAS29/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.700.880.560.710.86
vs Stronger (10)0.500.500.500.500.500.50
vs Similar (20)0.950.801.100.600.801.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maidenhead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamworth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards78.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards75.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.575.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MAI wins
0
Draws
1
TAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maidenhead vs Tamworth · H/A from MAI
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/24ATamworth Vs MAI3-1

M
Maidenhead

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25ADag and Red Vs MAI1-0
22/03/25HMAI Vs Rochdale1-1
18/03/25HMAI Vs Aldershot0-1
15/03/25AGateshead Vs MAI0-2
08/03/25HMAI Vs Sutton0-1
04/03/25HMAI Vs Braintree Town3-3
01/03/25AForest Green Vs MAI2-0
25/02/25HMAI Vs York1-3
22/02/25HMAI Vs Yeovil0-2
18/02/25AOldham Vs MAI0-1

TamworthTamworth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25HTAM Vs Eastleigh2-0
22/03/25AGateshead Vs TAM0-2
15/03/25ADag and Red Vs TAM1-3
08/03/25HTAM Vs Oldham1-1
04/03/25HTAM Vs Wealdstone4-1
01/03/25AEbbsfleet Vs TAM2-3
25/02/25HTAM Vs Rochdale1-1
22/02/25HTAM Vs Southend1-1
18/02/25AYeovil Vs TAM2-1
15/02/25AWoking Vs TAM1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

M
Maidenhead
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.12
HomeLDLLD1.35
AwayDWLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%25%
AVG goals2.962.962.96
Over 1.5 %76%81%71%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored1.301.501.08
Conceded1.661.461.88
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet16%12%21%
Corners---
Cards3.453.962.91
Tamworth
Tamworth
England: National League
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.45
HomeDDWDW1.65
AwayDLWWW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%43%33%
AVG goals2.772.702.86
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %27%22%33%
Scored1.341.571.10
Conceded1.431.131.76
BTTS59%70%48%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards4.834.954.70

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BarnetBarnet46102
67%
2.2
9738+59
2.9
78%
61%
35%
-
0%
4.0
61%
-
0%
4
0132.10.8
62%
2YorkYork4696
63%
2.1
9542+53
3.0
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
1
0012.10.9
63%
3Forest GreenForest Green4683
48%
1.8
6942+27
2.4
76%
43%
20%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
1
0001.50.9
50%
4RochdaleRochdale4674
46%
1.6
6944+25
2.5
67%
48%
26%
-
0%
2.8
30%
-
0%
2
1111.51.0
55%
5OldhamOldham4673
41%
1.6
6448+16
2.4
74%
43%
26%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
3
1111.41.0
51%
6HalifaxHalifax4670
41%
1.5
5046+4
2.1
59%
35%
17%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
49%
7SouthendSouthend4668
37%
1.5
5948+11
2.3
74%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
46%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
53%
8GatesheadGateshead4667
41%
1.5
7668+8
3.1
80%
57%
46%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
60%
9AltrinchamAltrincham4664
37%
1.4
6862+6
2.8
78%
63%
26%
-
0%
4.3
70%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
51%
10TamworthTamworth4664
37%
1.4
6572-7
3.0
87%
54%
30%
-
0%
4.8
65%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
40%
11HartlepoolHartlepool4660
30%
1.3
5962-3
2.6
70%
41%
24%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
45%
12SuttonSutton4660
33%
1.3
5964-5
2.7
74%
52%
24%
-
0%
4.6
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
49%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
30%
1.3
5861-3
2.6
78%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.5
65%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
46%
14SolihullSolihull4658
35%
1.3
6167-6
2.8
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
50%
15WokingWoking4658
28%
1.3
5259-7
2.4
74%
46%
24%
-
0%
4.5
70%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
50%
16AldershotAldershot4657
30%
1.2
6983-14
3.3
85%
63%
43%
-
0%
4.3
63%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
51%
17Braintree TownBraintree Town4656
33%
1.2
5159-8
2.4
63%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
45%
18YeovilYeovil4656
33%
1.2
5160-9
2.4
65%
50%
24%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
49%
19Boston UtdBoston Utd4655
33%
1.2
5467-13
2.6
76%
59%
28%
-
0%
4.1
54%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
20WealdstoneWealdstone4653
28%
1.2
5676-20
2.9
80%
52%
33%
-
0%
3.9
61%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
49%
21
DA
Dag and Red
4652
26%
1.1
6162-1
2.7
76%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
22
M
Maidenhead
4652
30%
1.1
5775-18
2.9
76%
50%
39%
-
0%
3.3
43%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
41%
23
F
Fylde
4640
24%
0.9
5085-35
2.9
83%
57%
26%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
46%
24
E
Ebbsfleet
4622
7%
0.5
3898-60
3.0
76%
54%
43%
-
0%
3.8
52%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
44%
England: National League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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