Mantova and Empoli enter a tightly contested Serie B clash, each side riding a recent win that keeps the balance razor-thin. The model favours a home victory, with a 38% chance for Mantova, a 28% chance for a draw and a 34% chance for Empoli. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% probability. Mantova, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, while Empoli, on the road, averages 1.15 scored and 1.62 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (98.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (97.4% with no edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 3% edge), Over 21.5 fouls (96.5%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.8% with a 5% edge).
Results analysis
Mantova’s recent form, riding a two-game winning streak, proved decisive as they secured a 3-1 victory over Empoli, extending their run. The model’s favourite, a home win with a 38% probability, was correct, and the final score matched the predicted 3-1 outcome. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.1%) was fulfilled, Over 19.5 fouls (98.6%) occurred, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%) were achieved, Under 6.5 (97.4%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%) both came through, Over 21.5 fouls (96.3%) and Away under 3.5 goals (94.7%) were also correct. The predictions were spot on.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mantova win✓ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 1.99
Edge
-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.10
SBO
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
2.02
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.18
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Empoli win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.90
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.36
Betano
4.15
Betfair
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.04
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mantova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.43
1.53
1.27
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
3.33
2.50
3.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.33
1.22
1.38
0.92
1.29
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Empoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.40
1.00
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.28
1.25
0.92
1.15
1.62
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.20
2.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
@ 1.34+6.6%
Under 1.5
23.6%
@ 3.10-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.16
Superbet
3.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.7%
@ 2.10+5.8%
Under 2.5
49.3%
@ 1.71-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Superbet
2.15
SBO
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
SBO
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.7%
@ 3.69+3.4%
Under 3.5
71.3%
@ 1.25-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.03
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
@ 1.83+5.6%
No
43.9%
@ 1.87-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.90
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
No
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 5.75+5.7%
2-1
8.5%@ 7.91+2.9%
1-0
8.1%@ 6.21+0.9%
1-2
8.0%@ 11.90+4.3%
0-0
7.9%@ 8.12+2.4%
0-1
7.6%@ 9.51+2.9%
2-0
6.5%@ 8.94+1.5%
0-2
5.8%@ 19.18+3.4%
Mantova goals ↓
Empoli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
7.6%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
1
8.1%
13%
8.0%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.5%
8.5%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.0%
3.9%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mantova goals (down), columns = Empoli goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Mantova is 0.13 points better than Empoli in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Mantova is 0.05 goals worse than Empoli in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Mantova is 0.08 goals worse than Empoli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Mantova is 9.4 percentage points better than Empoli in terms of average possession (57% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mantova
For 3.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 15.6 · Total 31.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Empoli
For 4.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.2 · Against 14.4 · Total 31.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mantova
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.6
9.2
5.1
5.5
4.8
33.0
33.1
32.9
vs Stronger (4)
9.2
9.5
9.0
5.2
4.5
6.0
31.8
27.5
36.0
vs Similar (45)
9.4
9.6
9.3
5.2
5.6
4.8
33.1
33.6
32.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
2.0
-
2.0
36.0
-
36.0
% over line
45%
40%
50%
80%
88%
72%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
55%
60%
50%
20%
12%
28%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Empoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.8
4.4
4.6
4.2
29.6
29.9
29.3
vs Stronger (5)
8.2
9.5
7.3
5.4
6.0
5.0
26.0
23.0
28.0
vs Similar (37)
9.2
8.4
10.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
29.5
30.2
28.6
vs Weaker (8)
11.4
12.2
10.5
4.2
5.2
3.2
32.6
32.0
33.2
% over line
50%
42%
58%
70%
77%
62%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
30%
23%
38%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Carrarese
10.6
Vicenza Virtus
10.4
Padova
10.0
Virtus Entella
9.9
Ascoli
9.6
Palermo
9.5
Cesena
9.4
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Sampdoria
9.1
Juve Stabia
9.1
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
8.9
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.4
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.7
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.7
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.6
Ascoli
32.6
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Avellino
30.8
Vicenza Virtus
30.0
Virtus Entella
29.9
Juve Stabia
29.7
Empoli
29.6
Padova
28.7
Modena
28.6
Benevento
28.4
Carrarese
28.4
Palermo
28.4
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.1
Hellas Verona
25.9
Pisa
24.9
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.7%
@ 1.88+2.3%
Under 9.5
48.3%
@ 1.84-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Unibet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.9%
@ 1.37+1.9%
Under 3.5
31.1%
@ 2.79-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betano
2.82
Superbet
2.75
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.2%
Under 21.5
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mantova or Draw✓ Hit
64.7%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.24
Edge
-11.1%
38%
28%
34%
covers Mantova + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Mantova or Empoli✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied 71.0% · @ 1.32
Edge
+1.5%
38%
28%
34%
covers Mantova + Empoli
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Draw or Empoli✗ Miss
62.7%
Avg Implied 53.2% · @ 1.76
Edge
+9.6%
38%
28%
34%
covers Draw + Empoli
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mantova over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.2%
@ 1.21-0.1%
Under
23.8%
@ 3.92+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
Superbet
3.85
Mantova over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.1%
@ 2.12-2.0%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.67+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Mantova over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
17.6%
@ 4.54-2.9%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.17+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Mantova over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 10.28-3.3%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.03+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.60
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Empoli over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.2%
@ 1.49+12.8%
Under
24.8%
@ 2.47-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Betano
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Empoli over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.6%
@ 3.42+13.3%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.28-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.85
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Empoli over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 9.43+6.5%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.04-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
9.70
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Empoli over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 22.83+1.1%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.01-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mantova, so a minus line means Mantova give that many goals of a start and Empoli receive them. At -1, Mantova must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mantova win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mantova)Actual: Draw
Mantova -2
6.8%
@ 8.52-3.7%
Draw -2
11.3%
@ 5.61-4.7%
Empoli +2
81.9%
@ 1.22+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Mantova)Actual: Mantova
Mantova -1
18.1%
@ 3.76-5.7%
Draw -1
19.1%
@ 3.55-6.1%
Empoli +1
62.7%
@ 1.76+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.40
Away
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Handicap +1 (Mantova)Actual: Mantova
Mantova +1
64.7%
@ 1.24-8.0%
Draw +1
18.5%
@ 5.24+1.3%
Empoli -1
16.7%
@ 8.98+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Unibet
4.80
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.90
Superbet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Mantova)Actual: Mantova
Mantova +2
83.3%
@ 1.04-6.7%
Draw +2
10.6%
@ 13.50+3.7%
Empoli -2
6.1%
@ 31.00+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mantova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.52
0.54
0.31
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Empoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.67
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.52
0.33
0.58
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.1%
@ 1.44+3.2%
Under 0.5
31.9%
@ 2.66-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.6%
@ 3.03+0.7%
Under 1.5
68.4%
@ 1.35-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.4%
@ 7.94-0.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
@ 1.06+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.50
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mantova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.1%
@ 1.91-2.4%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.80+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Mantova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 5.59-5.5%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.11+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Mantova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 16.17-3.5%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Empoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.4%
@ 2.59+5.6%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.45-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.61
Superbet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Empoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 9.38+1.5%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.03-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
9.40
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Empoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 40.00-97.7%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mantova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.70
0.85
0.62
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Empoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.33
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.76
0.92
0.33
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.6%
@ 1.27+6.3%
Under 0.5
20.4%
@ 3.49-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Betano
3.65
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.5%
@ 2.24+2.9%
Under 1.5
55.5%
@ 1.60-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.35
William Hil
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.58
William Hil
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.6%
@ 4.97-1.1%
Under 2.5
82.4%
@ 1.15+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mantova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.3%
@ 1.65-2.9%
Under
46.7%
@ 2.12+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Mantova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.8%
@ 4.09-2.8%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.20+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Mantova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
5.4%
@ 11.00-3.1%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Empoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.9%
@ 2.12+12.0%
Under
44.1%
@ 1.65-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Empoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 6.83+0.6%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.07-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.30
Superbet
6.90
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Empoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 19.67-2.3%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.3%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-6.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.4%
1.17
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+1.1%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+8.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.4%
1.34
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.2%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
1.49
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.33
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.9%
1.30
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.3%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-3.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mantova
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
F. Ruocco100%
Ismael Cajazzo33%
F. Benaissa-Yahia25%
R. Ilie25%
S. Trimboli0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Stefano Cella0%
Ettore Gliozzi0%
Lorenzo Ignacchiti0%
B. Tomašević0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Alessio Castellini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Tomašević50%
Francesco Bardi25%
R. Ilie25%
F. Ruocco25%
Alessio Castellini25%
S. Trimboli0%
Stefano Cella0%
Ettore Gliozzi0%
F. Benaissa-Yahia0%
Lorenzo Ignacchiti0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Ismael Cajazzo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alessio Castellini50%
Stefano Cella25%
Ettore Gliozzi25%
R. Ilie25%
S. Trimboli0%
Francesco Bardi0%
F. Benaissa-Yahia0%
F. Ruocco0%
Lorenzo Ignacchiti0%
B. Tomašević0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Ismael Cajazzo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ettore Gliozzi25%
F. Ruocco25%
S. Trimboli0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Stefano Cella0%
F. Benaissa-Yahia0%
R. Ilie0%
Lorenzo Ignacchiti0%
B. Tomašević0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Alessio Castellini0%
Ismael Cajazzo0%
Empoli
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Edoardo Saporiti67%
Stiven Shpendi33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gerard Yepes67%
Marco Curto33%
Luca Magnino33%
Cristian Cauz0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cauz33%
Matteo Egan33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Edoardo Saporiti0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edoardo Saporiti33%
Marco Curto0%
Luca Magnino0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Stiven Shpendi0%
Filippo Distefano0%
Jacopo Seghetti0%
Bogdan Popov0%
Matteo Egan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Mantova's squad is €4m more valuable than Empoli's (€24m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Mantova's attack is €1m more valuable than Empoli's (€12m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Mantova and Empoli have a similar midfield value (both €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Mantova's defence is €3m more valuable than Empoli's (€7m vs €4m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
Cremonese