The model designates an away win as the clear favourite, giving Benfica a 75% chance of triumph. This high probability stems from Benfica’s strong away form, scoring an average of 2.54 goals while conceding only 0.54 against weaker opponents, compared with Marítimo’s modest 1.33 goals scored and conceded at home against stronger teams. The expected total is 3.0 goals, yet the most likely total number of goals is 2, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, occurring with a 14% probability. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 8%, 18% and 75% respectively. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 80.4% and an Away win at 74.6%. Marítimo’s recent form shows a 1-2 loss to Arouca, while Benfica is on a three-game winning streak after a 3-1 victory over Aarhus. The model’s selection of an away win and over 1.5 goals reflects Benfica’s offensive potency and Marítimo’s defensive frailty in this fixture.
Results analysis
The match saw Benfica extend their three-game winning streak, while Marítimo returned from a defeat. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as Benfica triumphed 0-2. The pre-match probability for the favoured outcome was 75 percent, and the model’s selection hit. The suggested picks also performed well: Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.4 percent chance, was hit, and the away win pick, at 74.6 percent, was hit. The most likely scoreline of 0-2, with a 23 percent probability, materialised, confirming the model’s predictions across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maritimo win✗ Miss
7.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Benfica win✓ Hit
74.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maritimo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.87
1.60
1.33
1.20
2.40
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
2.75
1.33
1.33
1.20
3.60
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.68
1.90
1.50
1.33
1.89
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
0.67
2.93
0.80
2.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
2.92
0.54
3.31
0.54
2.54
0.54
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.0%
Under 2.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.4%
No
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2 ✓
14.0%
0-1
11.2%
0-3
10.8%
1-2
8.9%
1-1
8.4%
1-3
6.9%
0-4
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
Maritimo goals ↓
Benfica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
11%
14%
11%
6.3%
1
2.5%
8.4%
8.9%
6.9%
4.0%
2
1.0%
2.4%
2.8%
2.2%
1.3%
3
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maritimo goals (down), columns = Benfica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.59
Sporting CP
2.53
FC Porto
2.15
SC Braga
1.71
Arouca
1.59
Rio Ave
1.47
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
Estoril
1.38
Belenenses
1.21
Guimaraes
1.18
Nacional
1.12
Moreirense
1.06
Maritimo
1.03
Boavista
0.97
Tondela
0.88
Setubal
0.88
Uniao Madeira
0.85
Academica
0.74
Maritimo is 1.56 points worse than Benfica in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 2.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
2.59
Sporting CP
2.32
FC Porto
1.97
SC Braga
1.59
Arouca
1.38
Maritimo
1.32
Guimaraes
1.32
Rio Ave
1.29
Belenenses
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.26
Nacional
1.18
Estoril
1.18
Setubal
1.18
Moreirense
1.12
Tondela
1.00
Academica
0.94
Uniao Madeira
0.79
Boavista
0.71
Maritimo is 1.26 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.62
Benfica
0.65
FC Porto
0.88
SC Braga
1.03
Arouca
1.12
Estoril
1.21
Boavista
1.21
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Rio Ave
1.29
Uniao Madeira
1.47
Guimaraes
1.56
Tondela
1.59
Moreirense
1.59
Nacional
1.65
Academica
1.76
Setubal
1.79
Maritimo
1.85
Belenenses
1.94
Maritimo is 1.21 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 0.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maritimo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Benfica
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Maritimo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.38
1.00
1.00
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.33
1.40
0.47
1.00
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.31
0.23
1.54
0.23
1.08
0.23
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.13
1.07
0.80
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.38
0.33
0.33
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.05
1.11
1.40
1.00
0.67
1.22
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.33
1.53
0.33
1.27
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.62
0.31
1.77
0.31
1.46
0.31
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maritimo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simo Bouzaidi33%
Paulo Henrique25%
Raphael Guzzo25%
Adrián Butzke25%
Maurice Boakye25%
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Guzzo75%
Igor Julião50%
Adrián Butzke25%
Paulo Henrique0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Martín Tejón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Paulo Henrique0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paulo Henrique50%
Martín Tejón50%
Igor Julião0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Benfica · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis37%
Rafa Silva33%
Anísio Cabral33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu25%
Alexander Bah22%
Andreas Schjelderup22%
Franjo Ivanović18%
Richard Ríos17%
Florentino Luís17%
Georgiy Sudakov12%
Leandro Barreiro11%
Sidny Lopes Cabral9%
Fredrik Aursnes9%
João Rêgo8%
Gianluca Prestianni8%
Enzo Barrenechea5%
Nicolás Otamendi4%
Samuel Dahl4%
Tomás Araújo3%
Amar Dedić2%
Anatoliy Trubin2%
Bruma0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Samuel Soares0%
Manu Silva0%
António Silva0%
João Veloso0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
José Neto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Richard Ríos34%
Gianluca Prestianni29%
Enzo Barrenechea25%
Samuel Soares25%
Nicolás Otamendi22%
Alexander Bah22%
António Silva21%
Tomás Araújo17%
Florentino Luís17%
Amar Dedić15%
Dodi Lukebakio14%
Samuel Dahl10%
Sidny Lopes Cabral9%
Georgiy Sudakov9%
Leandro Barreiro9%
João Rêgo8%
Vangelis Pavlidis8%
Andreas Schjelderup7%
Fredrik Aursnes7%
Anatoliy Trubin4%
Franjo Ivanović3%
Rafa Silva0%
Bruma0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Manu Silva0%
João Veloso0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sidny Lopes Cabral18%
Andreas Schjelderup15%
Dodi Lukebakio14%
Leandro Barreiro13%
Georgiy Sudakov12%
Fredrik Aursnes11%
Gianluca Prestianni11%
Amar Dedić10%
Richard Ríos10%
Vangelis Pavlidis8%
Tomás Araújo6%
António Silva5%
Samuel Dahl4%
Franjo Ivanović3%
Rafa Silva0%
Florentino Luís0%
Nicolás Otamendi0%
Anatoliy Trubin0%
Bruma0%
Alexander Bah0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Samuel Soares0%
Manu Silva0%
João Veloso0%
João Rêgo0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vangelis Pavlidis37%
Daniel Banjaqui33%
Dodi Lukebakio23%
Rafa Silva22%
Richard Ríos20%
Gianluca Prestianni13%
Franjo Ivanović13%
Sidny Lopes Cabral9%
Georgiy Sudakov9%
Nicolás Otamendi7%
Andreas Schjelderup5%
António Silva3%
Enzo Barrenechea2%
Fredrik Aursnes2%
Leandro Barreiro2%
Florentino Luís0%
Anatoliy Trubin0%
Bruma0%
Amar Dedić0%
Alexander Bah0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Samuel Soares0%
Manu Silva0%
João Veloso0%
João Rêgo0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
ARO (25)
€28m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
Maritimo's squad is €341m less valuable than Benfica's (€16m vs €357m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
ARO (11)
€11m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
TON (7)
€2m
ACA (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Maritimo's attack is €165m less valuable than Benfica's (€7m vs €172m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
TON (4)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Maritimo's midfield is €74m less valuable than Benfica's (€3m vs €77m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Maritimo's defence is €102m less valuable than Benfica's (€6m vs €108m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP
FC Porto
SC Braga
Arouca
Rio Ave
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril
Belenenses
Guimaraes
Nacional
Moreirense
Boavista
Tondela
Academica