Benfica’s recent three-game winning streak and their strong away form - averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against weaker opposition - make them the clear favourite to win, a view echoed by the model’s 81% away-win probability. The model also predicts a 3-goal total, with the most likely scoreline 0-2 for Benfica, a 13.6% chance. Marítimo’s home form is modest, scoring 1.33 and conceding 0.67 against stronger opponents, while Benfica’s away form is robust. The model’s pick is an away win, and the expected total of 3.3 goals aligns with the 3-goal prediction. The home win probability sits at 5%, the draw at 14%, and the away win at 81%. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away +2 handicap (98.6%), Under 7.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (97.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.7%), and Under 6.5 (95.1%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maritimo win
5.6%
Avg Implied 8.5% · @ 10.95
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
12.50
1xBet
12.10
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
12.00
Betano
11.50
Draw
14.3%
Avg Implied 16.4% · @ 5.69
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.35
Dafabet
6.20
Pinnacle
6.10
Marathonbet
5.90
William Hil
5.80
Benfica win
80.1%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.25
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
Dafabet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maritimo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.97
1.40
1.00
1.80
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
0.80
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.00
1.42
1.08
1.77
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
1.00
2.93
0.93
1.93
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.67
2.00
1.67
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (24)
2.67
0.83
3.17
0.75
2.17
0.92
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.1%
@ 1.16+3.6%
Under 1.5
15.9%
@ 4.80-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Pinnacle
4.81
Betano
4.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.0%
@ 1.54+2.4%
Under 2.5
37.0%
@ 2.36-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.8%
@ 2.36+0.9%
Under 3.5
59.2%
@ 1.56-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Both teams to score
Yes
42.8%
@ 2.01-3.5%
No
57.2%
@ 1.73+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
No
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.6%@ 6.07+6.3%
0-3
12.0%@ 7.33+5.9%
0-1
9.7%@ 7.10+3.4%
1-2
8.2%@ 8.34+2.9%
0-4
7.9%@ 11.48+4.0%
1-3
7.2%@ 9.91+2.8%
1-1
6.8%@ 10.19+2.5%
1-4
4.8%@ 15.08+1.8%
Maritimo goals ↓
Benfica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
9.7%
14%
12%
7.9%
1
1.7%
6.8%
8.2%
7.2%
4.8%
2
0.7%
1.9%
2.5%
2.2%
1.4%
3
0.1%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maritimo goals (down), columns = Benfica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Maritimo is 1.23 points worse than Benfica in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 2.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Maritimo is 1.10 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Maritimo is 0.82 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 0.74).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maritimo
For 3.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 12.6 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
For 7.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.0
8.1
5.2
5.2
5.1
24.6
20.6
28.1
vs Stronger (9)
6.5
-
6.5
5.0
6.3
4.3
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (40)
8.2
8.0
8.4
5.3
5.1
5.6
24.9
20.6
29.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
30%
22%
36%
74%
76%
72%
75%
69%
80%
% under line
70%
78%
64%
26%
24%
28%
25%
31%
20%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.5
10.8
4.7
4.7
4.8
25.6
26.5
24.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
9.2
8.2
10.1
6.1
6.5
5.7
24.6
25.3
24.0
vs Weaker (37)
10.5
10.0
11.0
4.3
4.0
4.5
26.0
27.0
25.1
% over line
57%
55%
58%
66%
70%
63%
74%
77%
71%
% under line
43%
45%
42%
34%
30%
37%
26%
23%
29%
This opponent (Maritimo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.5
Maritimo
8.1
SC Braga
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Sporting CP
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.7
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.8
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.7
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.4%
@ 1.84-9.9%
Under 9.5
59.6%
@ 1.86+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
77.4%
Under 3.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.3%
Under 21.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maritimo or Draw
19.9%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.75
Edge
-5.2%
6%
14%
80%
covers Maritimo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.06
Betano
3.90
Marathonbet
3.88
William Hil
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Maritimo or Benfica
85.7%
Avg Implied 84.4% · @ 1.11
Edge
+1.3%
6%
14%
80%
covers Maritimo + Benfica
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Draw or Benfica
94.4%
Avg Implied 90.4% · @ 1.04
Edge
+4.0%
6%
14%
80%
covers Draw + Benfica
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Unibet
1.04
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maritimo over/under 0.5
Over
45.4%
@ 1.88-3.9%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.82+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Under
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Maritimo over/under 1.5
Over
12.3%
@ 5.40-4.9%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.12+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Maritimo over/under 2.5
Over
2.4%
@ 16.00-3.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Maritimo over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5
Over
92.9%
@ 1.05+3.3%
Under
7.1%
@ 9.10-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Under
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Betano
7.40
Benfica over/under 1.5
Over
74.1%
@ 1.33+4.3%
Under
25.9%
@ 3.08-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.34
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Benfica over/under 2.5
Over
49.2%
@ 2.03+3.4%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.72-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Benfica over/under 3.5
Over
27.3%
@ 3.61+1.6%
Under
72.7%
@ 1.25-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maritimo, so a minus line means Maritimo give that many goals of a start and Benfica receive them. At -1, Maritimo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maritimo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maritimo)
Maritimo -2
0.2%
Draw -2
1.2%
Benfica +2
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maritimo)
Maritimo -1
1.4%
@ 28.00-1.9%
Draw -1
4.2%
@ 11.50-3.9%
Benfica +1
94.4%
@ 1.04+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
21.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Handicap +1 (Maritimo)
Maritimo +1
19.9%
@ 3.79-3.8%
Draw +1
20.4%
@ 3.75-3.6%
Benfica -1
59.7%
@ 1.71+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.55
Away
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +2 (Maritimo)
Maritimo +2
40.3%
@ 2.00-4.6%
Draw +2
22.4%
@ 3.85-0.9%
Benfica -2
37.3%
@ 2.81+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.85
Unibet
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.62
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.33
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.48
0.67
0.50
0.85
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.30
1.40
0.40
1.07
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (24)
1.38
0.21
1.58
0.25
1.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
@ 1.26+0.4%
Under 0.5
25.7%
@ 3.54-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 2.24-2.8%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.59+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.1%
@ 5.02-4.5%
Under 2.5
85.9%
@ 1.14+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Betano
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.5%
@ 3.50+13.0%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.26-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.88
1xBet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.7%
@ 10.75-1.0%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.03+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.5%
@ 1.39-10.1%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.79+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.39
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
1xBet
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Unibet
2.70
Betano
2.60
Benfica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.4%
@ 2.96-12.8%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.34+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.96
10Bet
2.85
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Benfica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.2%
@ 7.30-8.6%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.07+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.52
0.75
0.58
0.92
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.53
0.53
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.00
1.33
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (24)
1.29
0.62
1.58
0.50
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.9%
@ 1.15-0.7%
Under 0.5
20.1%
@ 4.80+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.90
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.8%
@ 1.77-6.7%
Under 1.5
54.2%
@ 1.96+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Unibet
1.76
Under
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.92
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.2%
@ 3.33-8.7%
Under 2.5
80.8%
@ 1.29+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Under
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.7%
@ 2.77+10.2%
Under
56.3%
@ 1.39-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.9%
@ 9.75+2.2%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.05-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.5%
@ 1.26-8.0%
Under
34.5%
@ 3.50+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Under
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Benfica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.5%
@ 2.20-14.5%
Under
72.5%
@ 1.60+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Under
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Benfica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.0%
@ 4.82-10.2%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.15+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.07
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+8.6%
Under 6.5
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+1.3%
Draw or Away
94.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+4.0%
Away +1 handicap
94.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+5.8%
Over 19.5 fouls
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.9%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+3.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+10.2%
Over 2.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.05
+1.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.2%
Home under 1.5 goals
87.7%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+4.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+4.5%
Home or Away
85.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.12
+1.3%
Over 21.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.1%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
1.34
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
+12.8%
Under 11.5 corners
81.0%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Unibet
1.26
-
+10.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.29
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+8.7%
Away win
80.1%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Dafabet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+5.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-0.7%
Over 3.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.2%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-0.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.26
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+0.4%
Away over 1.5 goals
74.1%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+4.3%
Over 23.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
72.7%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-1.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.5%
1.60
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
-
+14.5%
Under 10.5 corners
71.4%
1.51
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Unibet
1.43
-
+10.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maritimo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simo Bouzaidi33%
Paulo Henrique25%
Raphael Guzzo25%
Adrián Butzke25%
Maurice Boakye25%
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Guzzo75%
Igor Julião50%
Adrián Butzke25%
Paulo Henrique0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Martín Tejón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Paulo Henrique0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paulo Henrique50%
Martín Tejón50%
Igor Julião0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Benfica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis100%
Gianluca Prestianni67%
Clément Lenglet33%
Rafa Silva33%
Jhon Durán33%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tomás Araújo33%
Georgiy Sudakov33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Vangelis Pavlidis0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Gianluca Prestianni0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Bah33%
Leandro Barreiro33%
Vangelis Pavlidis33%
Enzo Barrenechea33%
Tomás Araújo33%
Gianluca Prestianni33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Prestianni100%
Vangelis Pavlidis67%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Maritimo's squad is €341m less valuable than Benfica's (€16m vs €357m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Maritimo's attack is €165m less valuable than Benfica's (€7m vs €172m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Maritimo's midfield is €74m less valuable than Benfica's (€3m vs €77m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Maritimo's defence is €102m less valuable than Benfica's (€6m vs €108m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia