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Merani Martvili vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi Result & Analysis

Date: 20/10/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 2-2
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
Vs
31%
28%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Merani Martvili win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L05L14L02L04L30W02L24L00D37LH·SPA08/08A·LOK13/08H·GAR18/08A·WIT23/08H·KOL29/08A·MER02/09H·SIO16/09A·DIN22/09A·KOL29/09A·SPA06/10
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.970.801.671.002.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.901.970.801.671.002.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D50W02L21W01L11D20W13L10W31WA·DIN08/08H·MER13/08A·SPA18/08H·KOL23/08A·WIT02/09H·KOL15/09A·MER22/09H·GAR27/09A·SIO02/10H·DIN06/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.801.801.331.072.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.431.801.801.331.072.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.8%
0-0
8.3%
2-1
7.6%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
2-2 ✓
5.4%
Merani Martvili goals ↓
Lokomotivi Tbilisi goals →
01234
08.3%8.8%7.1%3.4%1.2%
17.4%14%8.8%4.2%1.5%
25.4%7.6%5.4%2.6%0.9%
32.2%3.1%2.2%1.1%0.4%
40.7%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Merani Martvili goals (down), columns = Lokomotivi Tbilisi goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kolkheti Poti
2.14
Gareji
2.11
Spaeri
1.83
Sioni
1.64
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.44
WIT Georgia
1.33
Kolkheti Khobi
1.28
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.11
Merani Martvili
0.72
Merani Tbilisi
0.39
Merani Martvili is 0.39 points worse than Lokomotivi Tbilisi in terms of average points per game (0.72 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Gareji
2.44
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.97
Kolkheti Poti
1.94
Sioni
1.89
Spaeri
1.89
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.53
WIT Georgia
1.44
Kolkheti Khobi
1.22
Merani Martvili
0.94
Merani Tbilisi
0.81
Merani Martvili is 0.58 goals worse than Lokomotivi Tbilisi in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.53).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kolkheti Poti
0.78
Gareji
1.06
Sioni
1.28
Spaeri
1.33
Kolkheti Khobi
1.44
WIT Georgia
1.58
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.61
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.61
Merani Martvili
2.33
Merani Tbilisi
3.06
Merani Martvili is 0.72 goals worse than Lokomotivi Tbilisi in terms of goals conceded per game (2.33 vs 1.61).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D03L02L02L02L20W00D22D00D14LH·SPA08/08A·LOK13/08H·GAR18/08A·WIT23/08H·KOL29/08A·MER02/09H·SIO16/09A·DIN22/09A·KOL29/09A·SPA06/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.030.330.730.401.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.371.030.330.730.401.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W01L01L01L11D20W02L00D20WA·DIN08/08H·MER13/08A·SPA18/08H·KOL23/08A·WIT02/09H·KOL15/09A·MER22/09H·GAR27/09A·SIO02/10H·DIN06/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.900.930.730.531.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.730.900.930.730.531.07
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L12L00D02L10W02L02L00D23LH·SPA08/08A·LOK13/08H·GAR18/08A·WIT23/08H·KOL29/08A·MER02/09H·SIO16/09A·DIN22/09A·KOL29/09A·SPA06/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.470.930.600.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.930.470.930.600.93
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W01L20W00D00D00D11D10W11DA·DIN08/08H·MER13/08A·SPA18/08H·KOL23/08A·WIT02/09H·KOL15/09A·MER22/09H·GAR27/09A·SIO02/10H·DIN06/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.870.600.531.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.700.900.870.600.531.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (20)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (8)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (4)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPA (8)
€1m
KP (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
MM wins
0
Draws
2
LT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Merani Martvili vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · H/A from MM
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/23ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs MM5-0
10/05/23HMM Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi1-0
11/03/23ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs MM1-0

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/23ASpaeri Vs MM7-3
29/09/23AKolkheti Khobi Vs MM0-0
22/09/23ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs MM4-2
16/09/23HMM Vs Sioni0-2
02/09/23AMerani Tbilisi Vs MM0-3
29/08/23HMM Vs Kolkheti Poti0-4
23/08/23AWIT Georgia Vs MM2-0
18/08/23HMM Vs Gareji1-4
13/08/23ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs MM5-0
08/08/23HMM Vs Spaeri1-2

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/23HLT Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II3-1
02/10/23ASioni Vs LT0-1
27/09/23HLT Vs Gareji1-3
22/09/23AMerani Tbilisi Vs LT0-2
15/09/23HLT Vs Kolkheti Poti1-1
02/09/23AWIT Georgia Vs LT1-0
23/08/23HLT Vs Kolkheti Khobi2-1
18/08/23ASpaeri Vs LT2-0
13/08/23HLT Vs Merani Martvili5-0
08/08/23ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs LT1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.00
HomeLLLLL1.00
AwayLWLDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals3.203.123.27
Over 1.5 %76%79%73%
Over 2.5 %60%67%54%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored1.241.211.27
Conceded1.961.922.00
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW0.74
HomeWWDLW1.16
AwayDLLWW0.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%32%8%
AVG goals3.242.883.60
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %60%56%64%
Over 3.5 %44%32%56%
Scored1.161.400.92
Conceded2.081.482.68
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti3677
64%
2.1
7028+42
2.7
81%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.8
-
2GarejiGareji3676
64%
2.1
8838+50
3.5
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3SpaeriSpaeri3666
56%
1.8
6848+20
3.2
75%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.3
-
4SioniSioni3659
50%
1.6
6846+22
3.2
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
5Dinamo Tbilisi IIDinamo Tbilisi II3652
44%
1.4
7158+13
3.6
86%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
6WIT GeorgiaWIT Georgia3648
36%
1.3
5257-5
3.0
81%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
7Kolkheti KhobiKolkheti Khobi3646
33%
1.3
4452-8
2.7
81%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi3640
33%
1.1
5558-3
3.1
86%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
9Merani MartviliMerani Martvili3626
17%
0.7
3484-50
3.3
75%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.3
-
10Merani TbilisiMerani Tbilisi3614
3%
0.4
29110-81
3.9
92%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.1
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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