PythiaFootballBETA
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's recent form is noteworthy, having won their last two matches, including a 1-0 victory over Veres Rivne, which sets the stage for this encounter. However, Veres Rivne has been struggling, with five consecutive defeats.
Defensively, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv has been solid at home, conceding no goals on average, while Veres Rivne has conceded 1.55 goals per match when playing away against stronger opponents. In contrast, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv has scored 2.33 goals per match at home against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with a 55% chance of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv winning, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 15% chance of Veres Rivne winning. The expected total number of goals is 2.0, and the most likely score is 1-0, with a probability of 17.5%.
The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, which has a high probability of 85.2%. Another suggested pick is Over 9.5 corners, with a probability of 71.4%. The home win percentage is 55%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 15%.
The win extends Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's 2-game winning run, with the home side now having secured 3 consecutive victories over Veres Rivne, including the most recent 1-0 triumph. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 55%. The final score of 1-0 indeed reflected the model's most likely outcome, a 1-0 scoreline, which held a 17.5% probability. Among the model's suggested picks, "Under 3.5" goals hit, with a probability of 85.2% and a correct outcome.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 0.60 | 1.27 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.90 | 0.20 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Veres Rivne| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 0.85 | 1.75 | 0.60 | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.90 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Veres Rivne goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 14% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 17% | 13% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Metalist 1925 KharkivVeres RivneMetalist 1925 Kharkiv| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.3 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 22.1 | 22.4 | 21.9 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 9.4 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 21.8 |
| vs Similar (20) | 12.0 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 12.2 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 22.0 |
| % over line | 65% | 86% | 50% | 14% | 15% | 12% | 53% | 57% | 50% |
| % under line | 35% | 14% | 50% | 86% | 85% | 88% | 47% | 43% | 50% |
Veres Rivne| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 22.0 | 26.3 | 19.9 |
| vs Stronger (31) | 10.7 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 19.8 | 25.2 | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.9 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 25.1 | 27.7 | 23.8 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 62% | 43% | 71% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 52% | 86% | 36% |
| % under line | 38% | 57% | 29% | 84% | 83% | 85% | 48% | 14% | 64% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 15/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 25/05/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/11/23 | A | 4-3 | |
| 14/05/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 1-4 |
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-0 |
Veres Rivne| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Karpaty | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 4 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 48% |
| 5 |  Kryvbas KR | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 6 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 7 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 62% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 9 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 10 |  Livyi Bereh | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 11 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 42% |
| 12 |  Bukovyna | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 13 |  Kudrivka | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 14 | Veres Rivne | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1.3 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 15 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 16 |  Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | - |