This Championship clash between Millwall and Norwich is finely balanced, with the home side coming off a win against Bristol City and the away team looking to bounce back from two consecutive defeats. Millwall has a 37% chance of winning, Norwich 33%, and a 30% chance of a draw. The model picks a home win as the most likely outcome.
The expected total goals is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%. Millwall has averaged 1.58 goals at home against similar opponents, conceding 1.25 goals. Norwich has averaged 1.85 goals away against similar opponents, conceding 1.0 goal.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 with 76.5% probability, Over 1.5 with 71.8% probability, and Home or Away with 70.8% probability. Millwall's home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Millwall secured a 3-0 win, extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was Home win at 41 %, and the model’s call was correct. The final score of 3-0 matched the actual result, confirming a home victory. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.5 %, Under 6.5 at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.1 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.9 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 95.8 %. All picks were settled and hit, underscoring the model’s comprehensive accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Millwall win✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied 39.3% · @ 2.39
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.53
Betano
2.50
Dafabet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
Betfair
2.45
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.33
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.48
Dafabet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Betano
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Norwich win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.90
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.15
888Sport
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Dafabet
2.90
William Hil
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Millwall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.93
1.54
0.92
1.35
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.43
0.93
1.54
0.92
1.35
0.94
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.00
1.71
1.00
1.77
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.52
1.04
1.29
1.07
1.77
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.67
3.67
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
@ 1.30+1.2%
Under 1.5
26.7%
@ 3.35-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.63
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.6%
@ 1.95-1.8%
Under 2.5
53.4%
@ 1.83+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.00
SBO
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
SBO
1.84
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
@ 3.31-3.2%
Under 3.5
74.9%
@ 1.31+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
@ 1.72-1.5%
No
47.4%
@ 2.03+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
888Sport
1.73
No
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.01+6.4%
1-0
9.6%@ 7.62+3.7%
0-0
9.2%@ 9.16+4.2%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.49+3.4%
0-1
7.9%@ 8.78+2.7%
2-0
7.5%@ 10.85+3.4%
1-2
7.3%@ 9.79+2.7%
0-2
5.3%@ 14.14+2.1%
Millwall goals ↓
Norwich goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
7.9%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.6%
14%
7.3%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.5%
8.7%
5.0%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.5%
4.0%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Millwall goals (down), columns = Norwich goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Millwall is 0.34 points better than Norwich in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Millwall is 0.04 goals worse than Norwich in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Millwall is 0.15 goals better than Norwich in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Millwall is 6.1 percentage points worse than Norwich in terms of average possession (48% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Millwall
For 5.8 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 8.2 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Norwich
For 7.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Millwall
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.2
10.5
3.4
3.1
3.8
20.6
19.8
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.8
11.2
10.5
3.4
3.1
3.8
20.6
19.8
21.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
58%
50%
46%
33%
58%
30%
21%
38%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
54%
67%
42%
70%
79%
62%
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.7
3.8
3.7
3.9
21.3
21.5
21.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
10.4
10.2
10.5
3.9
3.9
3.9
21.6
21.8
21.4
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
10.0
13.0
2.2
1.7
4.0
18.2
18.7
17.0
% over line
62%
63%
61%
56%
56%
57%
46%
52%
39%
% under line
38%
37%
39%
44%
44%
43%
54%
48%
61%
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
63.6%
@ 1.55+3.8%
Under 9.5
36.4%
@ 2.30-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Under
Unibet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.7%
@ 1.74-5.6%
Under 3.5
52.3%
@ 1.99+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
44.3%
Under 21.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Millwall or Draw✓ Hit
64.0%
Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.38
Edge
-4.1%
41%
29%
30%
covers Millwall + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Millwall or Norwich✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.30
Edge
-1.6%
41%
29%
30%
covers Millwall + Norwich
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw or Norwich✗ Miss
65.2%
Avg Implied 59.5% · @ 1.58
Edge
+5.7%
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Norwich
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
SBO
1.65
Unibet
1.58
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Millwall over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.7%
@ 1.25-2.5%
Under
28.3%
@ 3.60+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Under
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.68
Millwall over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.9%
@ 2.28-5.0%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.58+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
BetVictor
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Under
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Millwall over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.4%
@ 5.05-5.1%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.14+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Millwall over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 11.15-4.5%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Norwich over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.4%
@ 1.33+2.5%
Under
27.6%
@ 3.08-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.31
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.08
Norwich over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.9%
@ 2.64+1.5%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.44-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Norwich over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 6.33-0.7%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
Norwich over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 17.38-1.4%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Millwall, so a minus line means Millwall give that many goals of a start and Norwich receive them. At -1, Millwall must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Millwall win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Millwall)Actual: Millwall
Millwall -2
5.3%
@ 9.74-3.8%
Draw -2
10.3%
@ 6.24-3.9%
Norwich +2
84.3%
@ 1.16+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
9.80
10Bet
9.00
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Millwall)Actual: Millwall
Millwall -1
15.7%
@ 4.51-4.1%
Draw -1
19.1%
@ 3.90-3.8%
Norwich +1
65.2%
@ 1.56+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
10Bet
3.75
Away
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.52
Handicap +1 (Millwall)Actual: Millwall
Millwall +1
64.0%
@ 1.38-1.4%
Draw +1
19.5%
@ 4.53-0.4%
Norwich -1
16.5%
@ 6.08+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Unibet
4.40
Away
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Superbet
5.45
Handicap +2 (Millwall)Actual: Millwall
Millwall +2
83.5%
@ 1.08+0.1%
Draw +2
10.8%
@ 8.50+0.2%
Norwich -2
5.7%
@ 15.00-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.09
Bet365
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Millwall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.77
0.08
0.29
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.33
0.77
0.08
0.29
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.71
0.35
0.46
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.48
0.36
0.43
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
2.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.39+0.2%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 2.82-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Superbet
2.90
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.81-1.4%
Under 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.39+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Pinnacle
2.92
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.81
Under
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 7.12-2.2%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.07+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Millwall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.1%
@ 2.02+1.0%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.73-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
Millwall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 6.12-1.7%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.09+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Betano
6.20
Unibet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Millwall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 16.00-2.7%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Norwich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.6%
@ 2.20-3.9%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.62+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Norwich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 6.96-4.3%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.07+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Norwich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 18.25-3.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Millwall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.77
0.85
1.06
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
0.60
0.77
0.85
1.06
0.41
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.57
1.00
0.65
1.31
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.11
0.56
0.93
0.64
1.31
0.46
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.4%
Under 0.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.3%
Under 1.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.9%
Under 2.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Millwall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.6%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.14
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.09
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.5%
1.08
Unibet
1.09
Bet365
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.9%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.9%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.3%
1.30
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.4%
1.33
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.33
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.7%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
71.4%
1.45
Unibet
1.49
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
-
-
+8.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.8%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Millwall
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luke Cundle40%
Tairyk Arconte25%
Josh Coburn20%
Jake Cooper17%
Mark Sykes17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jenson Metcalfe33%
Casper De Norre20%
Lyndon Dykes20%
Josh Coburn20%
Mark Sykes17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Max Crocombe0%
Jake Cooper0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zak Lovelace25%
Jake Cooper17%
Camiel Neghli17%
Jenson Metcalfe17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Josh Coburn0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Coburn20%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Jake Cooper0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Norwich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Touré40%
M. Kvistgaarden40%
Andre Brooks33%
Ben Chrisene20%
Anis Ben Slimane17%
P. Mattsson0%
H. Darling0%
K. McLean0%
S. Field0%
J. Stacey0%
Anthony Musaba0%
José Córdoba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ruairi McConville0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
José Córdoba80%
K. McLean40%
Andre Brooks33%
H. Darling25%
Ruairi McConville25%
J. Stacey20%
P. Mattsson17%
Anis Ben Slimane17%
S. Field0%
Anthony Musaba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
M. Touré0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Stacey40%
Anthony Musaba25%
K. McLean20%
José Córdoba20%
M. Touré20%
Jacob Wright20%
Andre Brooks17%
P. Mattsson0%
H. Darling0%
S. Field0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Anis Ben Slimane0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
Ruairi McConville0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
P. Diallo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Touré40%
K. Fisher33%
H. Darling25%
Anthony Musaba25%
K. McLean20%
O. Schwartau17%
Andre Brooks17%
P. Mattsson0%
S. Field0%
J. Stacey0%
José Córdoba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Anis Ben Slimane0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
Ruairi McConville0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Millwall's squad is €22m less valuable than Norwich's (€85m vs €107m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Millwall's attack is €16m less valuable than Norwich's (€30m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Millwall's midfield is €2m less valuable than Norwich's (€29m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Millwall's defence is €4m less valuable than Norwich's (€25m vs €29m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston