Defensive solidity will shape the outcome as both sides have similar scoring and conceding averages: Milsami Orhei averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Petrocub, on the road, scores 1.0 and concedes 0.8 against comparable opposition. The model favours an away win, with a 38% chance, a draw at 35%, and a home win at 27%. The expected total is 1.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 for Petrocub, with a 14.6% chance. Recent form hints at a tight contest: Milsami came off a 0-0 draw, while Petrocub entered with a 3-0 victory. The suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 87.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.7%, Under 2.5 goals at 71.1% (hit), and Under 11.5 corners at 71.0%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and no other figures are repeated.
Results analysis
The match finished 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite, Petrocub, disappointed. The model had tipped an away win with a 38% probability, but that call was wrong. The game was a tight affair, with both sides scoring once, matching the 1-1 scoreline the model had listed as the most likely. The model’s other selections proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with 87.9% confidence, and Under 2.5 goals also hit at 71.1%. Milsami Orhei, coming off a draw, and Petrocub, riding a win, both struggled to break the deadlock, leaving the prediction of a decisive result unfulfilled.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrocub win✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.27
1.08
0.85
0.94
1.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (15)
0.87
1.13
0.83
1.00
0.89
1.22
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
1.10
1.40
0.60
1.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.70
1.56
0.75
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.92
1.38
1.00
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.27
2.00
0.29
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.2%
Under 1.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.9%
Under 2.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.1%
Under 3.5
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.9%
No
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.7%
1-1 ✓
14.7%
0-1
14.6%
1-0
11.5%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
5.4%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
Petrocub goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
15%
8.2%
2.8%
0.7%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
5.4%
5.6%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
3
1.5%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = Petrocub goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Victoria Bardar
2.38
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.17
Petrocub
2.17
Olimp Comrat
2.00
Zimbru
1.75
Milsami Orhei
1.58
Saxan
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Floreşti
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.25
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.17
Dacia-Buiucani
0.67
Spartanii Selemet
0.60
Speranța Drochia
0.09
Făleşti
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.58 points worse than Petrocub in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petrocub
2.46
Victoria Bardar
2.15
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.12
FCM Ungheni
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.92
Floreşti
1.62
Olimp Comrat
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Saxan
1.38
Zimbru
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.29
Iskra
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.96
Dacia-Buiucani
0.83
Speranța Drochia
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 1.17 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 2.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Petrocub
0.50
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.67
Victoria Bardar
0.92
Zimbru
0.96
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Saxan
1.15
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.58
Floreşti
1.62
CSF Bălți
1.83
Dacia-Buiucani
2.42
Iskra
2.50
Speranis Nisporeni
2.50
Spartanii Selemet
2.52
Speranța Drochia
2.82
Făleşti
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.58 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.54
0.23
0.29
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.11
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.30
0.60
0.00
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.27
0.75
0.19
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.46
0.62
0.38
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.07
1.00
0.00
0.62
0.12
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.54
0.62
0.65
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.93
0.33
0.67
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.60
1.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.81
0.56
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.75
0.62
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.29
1.00
0.12
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €2m less valuable than Petrocub's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's attack is €1m less valuable than Petrocub's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Petrocub have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Petrocub have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →