Defensive numbers hint at a tight, low-scoring affair. Milsami Orhei, at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 3.0, while Sheriff Tiraspol, on the road to a weaker side, nets 2.0 and concedes none. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 47% chance of Sheriff taking the victory, 31% for a draw and 22% for Milsami. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14.5% chance. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 84%, Under 3.5 goals at 83.6% (hit) and Over 8.5 corners at 70.8%. The recent form shows Milsami coming off a draw, Sheriff off a defeat, but the statistics and probabilities point to Sheriff winning the match.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Sheriff Tiraspol, failed to deliver, as Milsami Orhei snatched a 2-0 victory. The model had tipped an away win with a 47% probability, but the result proved wrong. The final score of 2-0 gave the home side a win, extending their recent form after a draw. The model’s other suggestion, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark, with an 83.6% chance, matching the 2-goal total. Sheriff’s away form had been strong, scoring 2.0 goals per game and conceding none, yet they could not convert that advantage. The prediction of a 2-goal outcome was the most likely score, but the actual outcome contradicted the favourite call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milsami Orhei win✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol win✗ Miss
47.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.33
0.93
1.21
0.94
1.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.80
0.50
3.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.25
1.00
1.29
0.89
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.67
1.00
0.40
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.73
1.69
0.44
1.29
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.80
0.00
1.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.64
1.50
0.17
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
2.18
0.36
2.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.7%
Under 1.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.4%
Under 2.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.4%
Under 3.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.6%
No
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.5%
1-1
14.0%
0-0
13.4%
0-2
10.3%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
5.1%
0-3
4.5%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
Sheriff Tiraspol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
15%
10%
4.5%
1.5%
1
8.5%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
3.9%
5.1%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
3
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Victoria Bardar
2.38
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.17
Petrocub
2.17
Olimp Comrat
2.00
Zimbru
1.75
Milsami Orhei
1.58
Saxan
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Floreşti
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.25
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.17
Dacia-Buiucani
0.67
Spartanii Selemet
0.60
Speranța Drochia
0.09
Făleşti
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.58 points worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petrocub
2.46
Victoria Bardar
2.15
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.12
FCM Ungheni
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.92
Floreşti
1.62
Olimp Comrat
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Saxan
1.38
Zimbru
1.38
CSF Bălți
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.29
Iskra
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.96
Dacia-Buiucani
0.83
Speranța Drochia
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.83 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 2.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Petrocub
0.50
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.67
Victoria Bardar
0.92
Zimbru
0.96
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Saxan
1.15
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.58
Floreşti
1.62
CSF Bălți
1.83
Dacia-Buiucani
2.42
Iskra
2.50
Speranis Nisporeni
2.50
Spartanii Selemet
2.52
Speranța Drochia
2.82
Făleşti
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.42 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.64
0.36
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.25
0.86
0.43
0.33
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.22
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
1.00
0.19
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.29
0.83
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.09
1.38
0.12
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.29
0.86
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
1.00
0.14
0.86
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.44
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.69
0.25
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.36
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.27
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €3m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's attack is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Petrocub
Zimbru
Floreşti
Victoria Bardar
CSF Bălți
Saxan
Dacia-Buiucani
Spartanii Selemet
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Olimp Comrat
Speranis Nisporeni
Iskra
Speranța Drochia
FCM Ungheni
Făleşti