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Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala Result & Analysis

Date: 15/02/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 2-2
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Vs
46%
25%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mingəçevir win✗ Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala win✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D03L03L04L10W23L02L03L12LA·KAP05/10H·SUM11/10A·ZIR19/10H·TUR25/10A·FK 02/11H·ARA08/11A·MOI01/12H·QAR10/12A·SƏB17/12A·NEF08/02
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.201.142.141.252.25
vs Stronger (14)1.212.211.142.141.292.29
vs Similar (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D13L40W12L31W21W11D14L21W22DH·QAR12/10A·IMI18/10H·KEŞ26/10A·KAP01/11H·SUM09/11A·ZIR30/11H·TUR05/12A·FK 11/12H·ARA17/12H·MOI08/02
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.732.002.501.380.862.71
vs Stronger (14)1.712.072.571.430.862.71
vs Similar (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.2%
2-2 ✓
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
3-1
5.6%
0-0
5.0%
Mingəçevir goals ↓
Zaqatala goals →
01234
05.0%4.6%4.0%1.9%0.7%
16.2%11%7.2%3.4%1.2%
26.5%9.2%6.5%3.1%1.1%
33.9%5.6%3.9%1.9%0.7%
41.8%2.5%1.8%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mingəçevir goals (down), columns = Zaqatala goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
Mingəçevir is 0.96 points worse than Zaqatala in terms of average points per game (0.61 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
Mingəçevir is 0.82 goals worse than Zaqatala in terms of goals scored per game (0.93 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
Mingəçevir is 0.21 goals worse than Zaqatala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D01L02L01L10W13L00D02L10WA·KAP05/10H·SUM11/10A·ZIR19/10H·TUR25/10A·FK 02/11H·ARA08/11A·MOI01/12H·QAR10/12A·SƏB17/12A·NEF08/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.930.710.710.881.12
vs Stronger (14)0.790.930.710.710.861.14
vs Similar (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L10W01L11D10W10W11D01L01LH·QAR12/10A·IMI18/10H·KEŞ26/10A·KAP01/11H·SUM09/11A·ZIR30/11H·TUR05/12A·FK 11/12H·ARA17/12H·MOI08/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.000.880.880.291.14
vs Stronger (14)0.571.000.860.860.291.14
vs Similar (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L01L03L00D10W02L01L02LA·KAP05/10H·SUM11/10A·ZIR19/10H·TUR25/10A·FK 02/11H·ARA08/11A·MOI01/12H·QAR10/12A·SƏB17/12A·NEF08/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.270.431.430.381.12
vs Stronger (14)0.431.290.431.430.431.14
vs Similar (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L30W11D20W11D01L03L20W21WH·QAR12/10A·IMI18/10H·KEŞ26/10A·KAP01/11H·SUM09/11A·ZIR30/11H·TUR05/12A·FK 11/12H·ARA17/12H·MOI08/02
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.001.620.500.571.57
vs Stronger (14)1.141.071.710.570.571.57
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Zaqatala have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Zaqatala have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Mingəçevir and Zaqatala have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MIN wins
0
Draws
1
ZAQ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mingəçevir vs Zaqatala · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/22AZaqatala Vs MIN2-1

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/23ANeftçi II Vs MIN2-1
17/12/22ASəbail II Vs MIN3-0
10/12/22HMIN Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-2
01/12/22AMOIK Vs MIN3-2
08/11/22HMIN Vs Araz1-0
02/11/22AFK Qəbələ II Vs MIN4-0
25/10/22HMIN Vs Turan II0-3
19/10/22AZira II Vs MIN3-0
11/10/22HMIN Vs Sumqayıt II1-1
05/10/22AKapaz II Vs MIN1-0

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/23HZAQ Vs MOIK2-2
17/12/22HZAQ Vs Araz2-1
11/12/22AFK Qəbələ II Vs ZAQ4-1
05/12/22HZAQ Vs Turan II1-1
30/11/22AZira II Vs ZAQ1-2
09/11/22HZAQ Vs Sumqayıt II3-1
01/11/22AKapaz II Vs ZAQ2-1
26/10/22HZAQ Vs Keşlə II4-0
18/10/22AImisli FK Vs ZAQ3-1
12/10/22HZAQ Vs Qarabağ II1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.67
HomeLDLWL1.00
AwayLLLLL0.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%29%12%
AVG goals3.403.293.50
Over 1.5 %87%86%88%
Over 2.5 %73%57%88%
Over 3.5 %40%43%38%
Scored1.201.141.25
Conceded2.202.142.25
BTTS40%43%38%
Clean Sheet13%14%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.40
HomeWWDWD2.25
AwayLLLWL0.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%62%14%
AVG goals3.733.883.57
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %73%75%71%
Over 3.5 %47%50%43%
Scored1.732.500.86
Conceded2.001.382.71
BTTS80%88%71%
Clean Sheet7%12%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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