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Minija vs BFA Result & Analysis

Date: 10/06/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Minija
Minija
Vs
58%
26%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Minija’s 5-game winning streak sets the tone for a favoured home victory, with the model picking a home win at 58%. The expected total of 2.4 goals suggests a compact affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 13.7% chance. Minija averages 2.0 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded at home against similar opposition, while BFA struggles away, netting just 0.6 and conceding 1.8. The draw probability sits at 26%, and the away win chance is 16%. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 at 77.5% and Over 1.5 at 70.6%. These picks reflect the modest scoring expectation and the likelihood of both sides finding the net. The match is set to be a tight contest, with Minija’s recent form giving them a clear edge.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Minija, fell short, as the match ended in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 58% probability, but this call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-0 or 1-1, yet the draw itself was the actual result. Minija’s five-game winning streak continued with a 3-2 win over Dainava, while BFA entered the game after a 2-2 draw against Tauras. The model’s selections Under 3.5 (77.5%) and Over 1.5 (70.6%) both hit, confirming the total goals expectation of 2.4.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minija win✗ Miss
57.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MinijaMinija

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D30W01L10W05L10W11D21W30W11DA·NEP24/03H·JON01/04A·TRA08/04H·TRA16/04A·KAU21/04A·FA 30/04H·GAR13/05A·PAN22/05H·ŽAL27/05H·EKR03/06
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.271.380.751.211.86
vs Stronger (11)1.001.451.001.001.001.83
vs Similar (12)1.751.002.000.331.501.67
vs Weaker (7)1.001.431.001.001.002.50
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W14L02L12L02L01L21W02L11DH·EKR26/03H·KAU01/04A·BAB07/04H·ŠIL15/04A·BE120/04H·NEV30/04A·NEP13/05H·JON21/05A·TRA27/05H·TRA04/06
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.631.941.180.922.23
vs Stronger (15)1.132.001.381.250.862.86
vs Similar (10)1.701.502.801.200.601.80
vs Weaker (5)2.200.802.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.7%
1-1 ✓
12.4%
2-0
12.2%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.1%
Minija goals ↓
BFA goals →
01234
010%5.7%2.6%0.7%0.1%
114%12%4.3%1.1%0.2%
212%9.3%3.5%0.9%0.2%
36.8%5.1%2.0%0.5%0.1%
42.8%2.1%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Minija is 0.39 points better than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Minija is 0.11 goals better than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Minija is 0.09 goals better than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.37).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MinijaMinija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W01L00D03L00D01L21W10W00DA·NEP24/03H·JON01/04A·TRA08/04H·TRA16/04A·KAU21/04A·FA 30/04H·GAR13/05A·PAN22/05H·ŽAL27/05H·EKR03/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.440.380.640.93
vs Stronger (11)0.450.730.200.400.671.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.420.830.170.830.67
vs Weaker (7)0.140.860.200.600.001.50
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L00D01L01L00D10W00D01LH·EKR26/03H·KAU01/04A·BAB07/04H·ŠIL15/04A·BE120/04H·NEV30/04A·NEP13/05H·JON21/05A·TRA27/05H·TRA04/06
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.830.760.590.311.15
vs Stronger (15)0.330.930.500.500.141.43
vs Similar (10)0.800.901.200.800.401.00
vs Weaker (5)0.800.400.750.501.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MinijaMinija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D10W02L10W10W00D20W11DA·NEP24/03H·JON01/04A·TRA08/04H·TRA16/04A·KAU21/04A·FA 30/04H·GAR13/05A·PAN22/05H·ŽAL27/05H·EKR03/06
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.940.380.570.93
vs Stronger (11)0.550.730.800.600.330.83
vs Similar (12)0.920.581.170.170.671.00
vs Weaker (7)0.860.570.800.401.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D12L02L11D01L01L11D02L10WH·EKR26/03H·KAU01/04A·BAB07/04H·ŠIL15/04A·BE120/04H·NEV30/04A·NEP13/05H·JON21/05A·TRA27/05H·TRA04/06
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.801.180.590.621.08
vs Stronger (15)0.801.070.880.750.711.43
vs Similar (10)0.900.601.600.400.200.80
vs Weaker (5)1.400.401.250.502.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
Minija and BFA have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and BFA have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and BFA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Minija and BFA have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
MIN wins
0
Draws
0
BFA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Minija vs BFA · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/22ABFA Vs MIN2-3
10/08/22HMIN Vs BFA3-1

MinijaMinija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/06/23HMIN Vs Ekranas1-1
27/05/23HMIN Vs Žalgiris II3-0
22/05/23APanevėžys II Vs MIN1-2
13/05/23HMIN Vs Garliava1-1
30/04/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs MIN0-1
21/04/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs MIN5-0
16/04/23HMIN Vs Trakai II1-0
08/04/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs MIN1-0
01/04/23HMIN Vs Jonava3-0
24/03/23ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs MIN0-0

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/06/23HBFA Vs Trakai II1-1
27/05/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BFA2-0
21/05/23HBFA Vs Jonava2-1
13/05/23ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BFA1-0
30/04/23HBFA Vs Nevėžis0-2
20/04/23ABe1 NFA Vs BFA2-1
15/04/23HBFA Vs Šilas0-2
07/04/23ABabrungas Vs BFA4-1
01/04/23HBFA Vs Kauno Žalgiris II1-0
26/03/23HBFA Vs Ekranas2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.24
HomeWWDWD1.57
AwayDLLWW0.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%43%24%
AVG goals2.241.812.67
Over 1.5 %67%57%76%
Over 2.5 %40%29%52%
Over 3.5 %17%5%29%
Scored1.001.100.90
Conceded1.240.711.76
BTTS40%33%48%
Clean Sheet31%43%19%
Corners---
Cards---
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.24
HomeWLLWD1.65
AwayDLLLL0.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%21%
AVG goals3.073.093.05
Over 1.5 %86%87%84%
Over 2.5 %62%65%58%
Over 3.5 %36%35%37%
Scored1.551.871.16
Conceded1.521.221.89
BTTS57%61%53%
Clean Sheet21%22%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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