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Minija vs BFA Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 1-1
Minija
Minija
Vs
28%
29%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minija win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MinijaMinija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D14L12L11D01L10W12L31W01L03LA·JON13/06H·ŽAL17/06A·TRA22/06A·BE127/06H·BAB22/07A·NEP27/07H·TAU02/08A·NEV08/08H·ATM16/08A·EKR22/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.470.851.460.881.47
vs Stronger (13)1.231.230.830.831.571.57
vs Similar (11)0.451.730.752.500.291.29
vs Weaker (6)0.831.501.001.330.671.67
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L22D01L10W10W00D21W10W22D51WA·NEP13/06H·TAU18/06A·NEV21/06H·ATM28/06H·EKR23/07H·JON26/07A·KAU02/08H·HEG09/08A·PAN16/08H·FA 23/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.171.670.931.471.40
vs Stronger (13)1.231.381.571.290.831.50
vs Similar (10)2.201.202.500.752.001.50
vs Weaker (7)1.290.711.000.501.671.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.7%
0-1
9.9%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
9.0%
0-2
8.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
5.0%
Minija goals ↓
BFA goals →
01234
09.0%9.9%8.1%3.9%1.4%
17.3%14%9.0%4.4%1.6%
24.8%6.9%5.0%2.4%0.9%
31.8%2.6%1.9%0.9%0.3%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Minija is 0.63 points worse than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Minija is 0.67 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.57).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Minija is 0.33 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MinijaMinija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L11D00D10W01L11D00D01LA·JON13/06H·ŽAL17/06A·TRA22/06A·BE127/06H·BAB22/07A·NEP27/07H·TAU02/08A·NEV08/08H·ATM16/08A·EKR22/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.600.230.620.470.59
vs Stronger (13)0.460.540.170.330.710.71
vs Similar (11)0.360.820.501.500.290.43
vs Weaker (6)0.170.330.000.000.330.67
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W01L00D10W00D10W10W11D10WA·NEP13/06H·TAU18/06A·NEV21/06H·ATM28/06H·EKR23/07H·JON26/07A·KAU02/08H·HEG09/08A·PAN16/08H·FA 23/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.370.600.270.800.47
vs Stronger (13)0.540.460.570.430.500.50
vs Similar (10)1.100.300.750.001.330.50
vs Weaker (7)0.430.290.500.250.330.33
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MinijaMinija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L11D00D01L00D11D20W01L02LA·JON13/06H·ŽAL17/06A·TRA22/06A·BE127/06H·BAB22/07A·NEP27/07H·TAU02/08A·NEV08/08H·ATM16/08A·EKR22/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.870.620.850.410.88
vs Stronger (13)0.770.690.670.500.860.86
vs Similar (11)0.090.910.251.000.000.86
vs Weaker (6)0.671.171.001.330.331.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L00D10W00D00D11D00D11D41WA·NEP13/06H·TAU18/06A·NEV21/06H·ATM28/06H·EKR23/07H·JON26/07A·KAU02/08H·HEG09/08A·PAN16/08H·FA 23/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.801.070.670.670.93
vs Stronger (13)0.690.921.000.860.331.00
vs Similar (10)1.100.901.750.750.671.00
vs Weaker (7)0.860.430.500.251.330.67
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Minija and BFA have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and BFA have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and BFA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Minija and BFA have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
MIN wins
2
Draws
3
BFA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Minija vs BFA · H/A from MIN
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25ABFA Vs MIN1-0
17/08/24ABFA Vs MIN1-1
23/03/24HMIN Vs BFA0-1
28/10/23ABFA Vs MIN2-0
10/06/23HMIN Vs BFA1-1
30/09/22ABFA Vs MIN2-3
10/08/22HMIN Vs BFA3-1

MinijaMinija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/25AEkranas Vs MIN3-0
16/08/25HMIN Vs Atmosfera0-1
08/08/25ANevėžis Vs MIN1-3
02/08/25HMIN Vs Tauras1-2
27/07/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs MIN0-1
22/07/25HMIN Vs Babrungas0-1
27/06/25ABe1 NFA Vs MIN1-1
22/06/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs MIN2-1
17/06/25HMIN Vs Žalgiris II1-4
13/06/25AJonava Vs MIN0-0

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25HBFA Vs FA Šiauliai II5-1
16/08/25APanevėžys II Vs BFA2-2
09/08/25HBFA Vs Hegelmann II1-0
02/08/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BFA1-2
26/07/25HBFA Vs Jonava0-0
23/07/25HBFA Vs Ekranas1-0
28/06/25HBFA Vs Atmosfera1-0
21/06/25ANevėžis Vs BFA1-0
18/06/25HBFA Vs Tauras2-2
13/06/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BFA2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.16
HomeWLLLL1.09
AwayLDWWL1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%27%32%
AVG goals2.462.412.50
Over 1.5 %70%68%71%
Over 2.5 %46%41%50%
Over 3.5 %28%32%25%
Scored1.040.951.11
Conceded1.421.451.39
BTTS44%45%43%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Corners---
Cards---
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.46
HomeWWDWW1.75
AwayLLLWD1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%31%
AVG goals3.083.083.08
Over 1.5 %80%71%88%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %44%42%46%
Scored1.601.881.35
Conceded1.481.211.73
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet26%38%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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