Defensive solidity will shape this tight, low-scoring encounter. The model projects a 61% chance of a home win, 27% for a draw and 13% for an away win, with the home side the clear favourite. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a modest tally, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 16.7% probability. Minija, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Kauno Žalgiris II, on the road to a stronger side, manages only 0.44 goals scored and concedes 1.67. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 with an 81.9% chance. The home win percentage is 61%, the draw 27% and the away win 13%. The suggested pick Under 3.5 carries an 81.9% probability. This match is set for a cautious, defensive battle with a slim edge toward a narrow home victory.
Results analysis
Minija’s five-game winning streak continued as they secured a 3-0 victory over Kauno Žalgiris II, extending their run of triumphs. The model had picked a home win with a 61% probability, and the result matched that prediction. The most likely total of 2 goals fell short, but the model’s single selection, Under 3.5, hit with an 81.9% chance. The final score of 3-0 confirmed a home win, and the model’s call was correct. Each suggested pick was settled: Under 3.5 was a hit, and no other selections were listed. The outcome matched the forecast, underscoring the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minija win✓ Hit
60.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II win✗ Miss
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Minija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.10
1.62
0.62
1.14
1.64
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.88
vs Similar (11)
1.64
0.45
1.71
0.29
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.40
1.67
0.67
1.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.71
1.64
1.82
0.50
1.60
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
1.72
1.56
1.78
0.44
1.67
vs Similar (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
24% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.7%
Under 1.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.1%
No
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.7%
2-0
14.2%
0-0
12.1%
1-1
11.7%
2-1
8.5%
3-0 ✓
7.6%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
4.5%
Minija goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
5.6%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
1
17%
12%
3.2%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
8.5%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
7.6%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
4
3.0%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Minija is 0.59 points better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Minija is 0.11 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Minija is 0.36 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Minija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.62
0.25
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.64
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.88
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.09
0.71
0.14
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
0.76
0.82
0.55
0.10
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.78
0.89
0.56
0.11
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Minija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
1.00
0.38
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.86
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
1.00
0.14
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.95
0.82
1.27
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.94
0.67
1.22
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
52% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
Minija and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Minija and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Minija and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →