Defensive solidity dominates this Cup clash, with Minija’s home form showing 2.0 goals conceded per match and Kauno Žalgiris’ away form boasting a mere 0.25 goals allowed. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance, a draw at 35%, and an away win at 29%. The expected total goals sits at 1.9, and the most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 16.8% probability.
Minija’s recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-2 victory over Dainava, contrasts with Kauno Žalgiris’ mixed five-game run, which ended with a win against Šiauliai. Against stronger opposition, Minija averages 1.17 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Kauno Žalgiris, facing weaker teams, averages 1.62 scored and 0.25 conceded.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 5.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 4.5 (95.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.2%), and Home under 2.5 goals (92.0%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minija win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Minija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
1.07
1.79
2.31
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.55
1.64
1.17
2.00
2.00
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.20
1.14
1.71
2.50
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
0.00
1.00
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.87
2.07
0.80
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.71
0.79
2.22
0.78
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.42
2.25
0.75
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.0%
Under 1.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.7%
Under 2.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.0%
Under 3.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.0%
No
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.8%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.1%
0-1
12.1%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
6.7%
0-2
5.8%
1-2
5.8%
Minija goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
12%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
7.7%
6.7%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.6%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minija goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
3.00
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Babrungas
2.25
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
Šiauliai
2.00
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
1.75
Vilnius FA
1.50
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Utenis Utena
1.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
Atmosfera
1.50
Banga
1.50
Ekranas
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Nevėžis
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.00
OG Kaišiadorys
1.00
FK Sumskas
1.00
FK Ketera
1.00
Radviliškis
1.00
Svyturys
1.00
Vilniaus Vytis
1.00
FK Inter Nemencine
1.00
Nadruvis
1.00
Granitas
1.00
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.00
Kaunas City FA
1.00
Sendvaris
0.00
Viltis Vilnius
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
FK Trakai
0.00
Dainava
0.00
BFA
0.00
Minija is 0.67 points better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ekranas
9.00
Tauras
6.33
Panevėžys
4.60
Atmosfera
4.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4.00
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.00
VGTU Vilkai
3.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
3.00
Babrungas
3.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.50
Sveikata
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.33
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Utenis Utena
2.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
2.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.75
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.65
OG Kaišiadorys
1.65
FK Sumskas
1.65
FK Ketera
1.65
Radviliškis
1.65
Svyturys
1.65
Vilniaus Vytis
1.65
FK Inter Nemencine
1.65
Nadruvis
1.65
Granitas
1.65
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.65
Kaunas City FA
1.65
Be1 NFA
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
1.00
Venta
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
FK Trakai
1.00
Banga
1.00
BFA
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.50
Garliava
0.50
Sendvaris
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Minija is 1.00 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.50
Banga
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Babrungas
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Minija
0.67
Suduva Marijampole
0.75
Šilutė
1.00
Nemunas
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Šiauliai
1.33
Tauras
1.33
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Jonava
1.75
Vilnius FA
2.00
Utenos Utena
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.67
Viltis Vilnius
3.00
Širvėna Biržai
3.00
Utenis Utena
3.00
Ataka Vilnius
3.00
BFA
3.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
3.02
OG Kaišiadorys
3.02
FK Sumskas
3.02
FK Ketera
3.02
Radviliškis
3.02
Svyturys
3.02
Vilniaus Vytis
3.02
FK Inter Nemencine
3.02
Nadruvis
3.02
Granitas
3.02
FK Jurbarko Imsre
3.02
Kaunas City FA
3.02
VGTU Vilkai
3.50
Pempininkai Gargždai
4.00
FKS Ukmergė
4.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Venta
6.00
Saned Joniškis
6.00
Dainava
6.00
Tera
8.00
Sendvaris
13.00
Trivartis Vilnius
13.00
Minija is 0.67 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Minija or Draw
70.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
35%
29%
covers Minija + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minija or Kauno Žalgiris
65.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
35%
29%
covers Minija + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
63.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
35%
29%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Minija over/under 0.5
Over
63.2%
Under
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Minija, so a minus line means Minija give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris receive them. At -1, Minija must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Minija win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Minija)
Minija -2
4.1%
Draw -2
10.2%
Kauno Žalgiris +2
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Minija)
Minija -1
14.3%
Draw -1
21.9%
Kauno Žalgiris +1
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Minija)
Minija +1
70.9%
Draw +1
18.8%
Kauno Žalgiris -1
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Minija)
Minija +2
89.7%
Draw +2
7.7%
Kauno Žalgiris -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Minija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.36
0.71
1.12
0.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.67
0.29
1.00
1.38
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.21
1.00
0.11
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.08
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Minija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
0.71
1.07
1.19
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.09
0.67
1.50
1.20
0.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.53
0.86
0.71
1.12
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.22
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
MIN (3)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Minija's squad is €9m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€0m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Minija's attack is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€0m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Minija's midfield is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Minija's defence is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€0m vs €4m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →