Minsk II and FC Slutsk are set for a closely contested match in the Belarus 1. Division. FC Slutsk's recent form has been underwhelming, with two consecutive defeats, but they have a chance to bounce back against Minsk II. Minsk II, on the other hand, are coming off a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Ostrovets FC.
The model predicts a 40% chance of an away win, with FC Slutsk's model pick selection holding a 40% probability. The model suggests a 32% chance of a home win and a 29% chance of a draw. The expected total goals are 2.6, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability.
Minsk II have been scoring an average of 3.25 goals at home, but conceding only 1.0. Meanwhile, FC Slutsk have been scoring an average of 0.71 goals away, but conceding 2.14. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 74.5% probability, and Under 3.5 with a 73.6% probability. Minsk II have a 32% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 40% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC Slutsk, did not come through, as the game finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction. The model had picked an away win with a 38 % probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-0 matched the model’s most likely total of 2 goals, yet the match produced none. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3 %) and Under 5.5 (95.2 %). Both Minsk II and FC Slutsk entered the match coming off draws, with Minsk II’s recent form noted as “coming off a draw” after a 0-0 result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minsk II win✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk win✗ Miss
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.10
1.71
1.07
1.88
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.17
1.18
1.18
1.83
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.67
0.77
1.46
0.82
1.82
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.58
0.60
1.60
0.86
1.57
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.82
1.00
1.57
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
8.8%
0-0 ✓
8.8%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
Minsk II goals ↓
FC Slutsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
8.8%
6.7%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.2%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.9%
7.8%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.4%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minsk II goals (down), columns = FC Slutsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Minsk II is 0.34 points better than FC Slutsk in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Minsk II is 0.30 goals better than FC Slutsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Minsk II is 0.38 goals worse than FC Slutsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Minsk II or Draw✓ Hit
62.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
38%
covers Minsk II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minsk II or FC Slutsk✗ Miss
71.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
38%
covers Minsk II + FC Slutsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Slutsk✓ Hit
66.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
29%
38%
covers Draw + FC Slutsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Minsk II over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Minsk II, so a minus line means Minsk II give that many goals of a start and FC Slutsk receive them. At -1, Minsk II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Minsk II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Minsk II)Actual: FC Slutsk
Minsk II -2
5.0%
Draw -2
9.9%
FC Slutsk +2
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Minsk II)Actual: FC Slutsk
Minsk II -1
14.9%
Draw -1
18.5%
FC Slutsk +1
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Minsk II)Actual: Minsk II
Minsk II +1
62.4%
Draw +1
19.9%
FC Slutsk -1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Minsk II)Actual: Minsk II
Minsk II +2
82.4%
Draw +2
11.3%
FC Slutsk -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.71
0.43
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.48
0.45
0.36
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.83
2.50
1.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.31
0.69
0.47
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.75
0.40
0.40
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.94
0.29
1.00
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.3%
Under 0.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.9%
Under 1.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.7%
Under 2.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.64
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.70
0.73
0.82
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.50
0.00
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.46
0.77
0.35
0.88
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.20
1.20
0.71
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.88
0.71
0.57
0.10
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.4%
Under 1.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.9%
Under 2.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Minsk II and FC Slutsk have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Minsk II and FC Slutsk have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Minsk II and FC Slutsk have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Minsk II and FC Slutsk have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →