Minsk II’s recent draw and Niva’s four-game winning streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting an average of 3.3 goals. The most likely outcome is an away win, with a 46 % chance of victory for Niva, 29 % for Minsk II and 25 % for a draw. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1 % probability. Minsk II averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Niva, playing away, nets 2.0 goals and concedes 2.4 against similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.2 %), Under 6.5 (95.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3 %), Under 5.5 (88.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (88.6 %), Away +2 handicap (86.4 %), Over 1.5 (84.6 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (84.0 %). These picks reflect the expected attacking output and the likelihood of Niva’s offensive advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minsk II win
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Niva win
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.57
0.86
1.81
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.00
1.00
0.91
1.82
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
2.71
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.67
2.13
1.60
2.20
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.96
1.83
1.75
1.82
2.18
vs Weaker (7)
3.29
0.71
3.33
1.00
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.2%
Under 2.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.4%
0-1
6.0%
1-3
5.6%
0-0
4.9%
Minsk II goals ↓
Niva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
6.0%
6.4%
3.9%
1.8%
1
4.5%
11%
9.2%
5.6%
2.6%
2
3.9%
7.2%
6.6%
4.0%
1.8%
3
1.9%
3.4%
3.1%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minsk II goals (down), columns = Niva goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Minsk II is 0.71 points worse than Niva in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 2.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Minsk II is 1.43 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 3.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Minsk II is 0.14 goals better than Niva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Minsk II or Draw
53.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
46%
covers Minsk II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minsk II or Niva
75.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
46%
covers Minsk II + Niva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Niva
70.8%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
46%
covers Draw + Niva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Minsk II over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5
Over
83.9%
Under
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 3.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Minsk II, so a minus line means Minsk II give that many goals of a start and Niva receive them. At -1, Minsk II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Minsk II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Minsk II)
Minsk II -2
4.9%
Draw -2
8.7%
Niva +2
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Minsk II)
Minsk II -1
13.6%
Draw -1
15.6%
Niva +1
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Minsk II)
Minsk II +1
53.9%
Draw +1
20.2%
Niva -1
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Minsk II)
Minsk II +2
74.1%
Draw +2
14.2%
Niva -2
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.71
0.36
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.36
0.45
0.27
0.91
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.86
2.50
1.00
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
0.93
0.67
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.09
0.83
0.75
0.91
1.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.3%
Under 0.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.9%
Under 1.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.14
2.50
0.00
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.20
0.93
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.87
1.00
1.00
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.43
2.00
0.67
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.8%
Under 0.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.6%
Under 1.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.7%
Under 2.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Minsk II and Niva have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Minsk II and Niva have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Minsk II and Niva have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Minsk II and Niva have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Lida
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II