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Minsk II vs Ostrovets FC Result & Analysis

Date: 10/08/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 1-2
Minsk II
Minsk II
Vs
43%
27%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Minsk II are favourites to win against Ostrovets FC, with a 43% chance of victory, 27% chance of a draw, and 30% chance of an away win. The model's selection is a home win, with an expected total of 2.8 goals and the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.8%.

Minsk II have been on a 5-game winning run, scoring 1.12 goals on average at home and conceding 0.88 goals. Ostrovets FC, on the other hand, scored 1.09 goals on average away from home but conceded 1.27 goals. The model suggests Over 1.5 as its selection, with a probability of 78.8%. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 30%.

Results analysis

In a surprise turn of events, Ostrovets FC stunned Minsk II with a 1-2 away win, extending their two-game winning streak. This result was a major upset, as Minsk II were the pre-match favourite, with a 43% chance of winning according to the model's predictions. Unfortunately for the model, its selection, a Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection, a Home win, had a 43% probability of occurring. The model's selection, a Home win, was the favourite. The model's selection, a Home win, was the favourite. The model's selection, a Home win, had a 43% probability of occurring. The model's selection, a Home win, was the favourite. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 78.8%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minsk II win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC win✓ Hit
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Minsk IIMinsk II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-722D32W32W12L21W70W32W21W10W32WA·NIV12/10H·OSI17/10A·UNI25/10H·ABF31/10A·BAR07/11H·GOM15/11A·VOL22/11H·UNI26/07A·BAT02/08A·SLO06/08
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.131.641.141.691.12
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (22)1.361.231.091.271.641.18
vs Weaker (7)2.711.005.001.001.801.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-553W01L01L02L32W21W31W02L13L20WH·UNI18/10H·DIN22/10A·ABF27/10H·BAR02/11A·GOM08/11H·VOL15/11A·ORS22/11A·NIV25/07H·LID01/08H·OSI05/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.431.801.531.401.33
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (23)1.481.571.731.821.251.33
vs Weaker (6)2.170.832.000.752.501.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.0%
Under 2.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.0%
1-2 ✓
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
0-0
7.0%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.8%
Minsk II goals ↓
Ostrovets FC goals →
01234
07.0%6.2%4.7%2.0%0.6%
18.0%13%7.4%3.1%1.0%
27.2%9.1%5.8%2.5%0.8%
33.8%4.8%3.0%1.3%0.4%
41.5%1.9%1.2%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minsk II goals (down), columns = Ostrovets FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Minsk II is 0.14 points better than Ostrovets FC in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.71).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Minsk II is 0.43 goals better than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Minsk II is 0.43 goals better than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Minsk IIMinsk II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D22D00D11D21W30W21W00D10W21WA·NIV12/10H·OSI17/10A·UNI25/10H·ABF31/10A·BAR07/11H·GOM15/11A·VOL22/11H·UNI26/07A·BAT02/08A·SLO06/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.710.500.750.62
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (22)0.640.500.450.450.820.55
vs Weaker (7)1.140.862.501.000.600.80
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D00D11D11D10W00D01L10WH·UNI18/10H·DIN22/10A·ABF27/10H·BAR02/11A·GOM08/11H·VOL15/11A·ORS22/11A·NIV25/07H·LID01/08H·OSI05/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.630.670.670.330.60
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.430.700.550.820.330.58
vs Weaker (6)0.830.331.000.250.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Minsk IIMinsk II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W32W01L00D40W11D21W00D11DA·NIV12/10H·OSI17/10A·UNI25/10H·ABF31/10A·BAR07/11H·GOM15/11A·VOL22/11H·UNI26/07A·BAT02/08A·SLO06/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.570.930.640.940.50
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (22)0.730.730.640.820.820.64
vs Weaker (7)1.570.142.500.001.200.20
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D01L01L02L21W10W21W02L12L10WH·UNI18/10H·DIN22/10A·ABF27/10H·BAR02/11A·GOM08/11H·VOL15/11A·ORS22/11A·NIV25/07H·LID01/08H·OSI05/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.801.130.871.070.73
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (23)1.040.871.181.000.920.75
vs Weaker (6)1.330.501.000.502.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Minsk II and Ostrovets FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Minsk II and Ostrovets FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Minsk II and Ostrovets FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Minsk II and Ostrovets FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
MI wins
0
Draws
1
OF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Minsk II vs Ostrovets FC · H/A from MI
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/25HMI Vs Ostrovets FC1-0
30/03/25AOstrovets FC Vs MI4-1

Minsk IIMinsk II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/26ASlonim Vs MI2-3
02/08/26ABATE II Vs MI0-1
26/07/26HMI Vs Uni Minsk2-1
22/11/25AVolna Vs MI2-3
15/11/25HMI Vs Gomel II7-0
07/11/25ABaranovichi Vs MI1-2
31/10/25HMI Vs ABFF U191-2
25/10/25AUni Minsk Vs MI2-3
17/10/25HMI Vs Osipovichy3-2
12/10/25ANiva Vs MI2-2

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/26HOF Vs Osipovichy2-0
01/08/26HOF Vs Lida1-3
25/07/26ANiva Vs OF2-0
22/11/25AOrsha Vs OF1-3
15/11/25HOF Vs Volna2-1
08/11/25AGomel II Vs OF2-3
02/11/25HOF Vs Baranovichi0-2
27/10/25AABFF U19 Vs OF1-0
22/10/25HOF Vs Dinamo Minsk II0-1
18/10/25HOF Vs Uni Minsk5-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Minsk II
Minsk II
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.62
HomeWWLWW1.33
AwayWWWWW1.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %49%39%58%
AVG goals2.842.673.00
Over 1.5 %68%67%68%
Over 2.5 %51%44%58%
Over 3.5 %32%22%42%
Scored1.491.391.58
Conceded1.351.281.42
BTTS57%50%63%
Clean Sheet27%22%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.28
HomeLLWLW1.23
AwayWLWWL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%42%
AVG goals3.023.152.88
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %62%69%54%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.441.461.42
Conceded1.581.691.46
BTTS58%54%62%
Clean Sheet18%19%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4719
86%
2.7
173+14
2.9
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.40.4
-
2NivaNiva718
86%
2.6
228+14
4.3
100%
86%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.1
-
3LidaLida715
71%
2.1
1512+3
3.9
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0102.11.7
-
4Minsk IIMinsk II713
57%
1.9
127+5
2.7
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.0
-
5OsipovichyOsipovichy713
57%
1.9
810-2
2.6
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.4
-
6Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC712
57%
1.7
910-1
2.7
86%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.4
-
7BumpromBumprom811
38%
1.4
1213-1
3.1
88%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.6
-
8OrshaOrsha810
38%
1.2
1015-5
3.1
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.9
-
9FC SlutskFC Slutsk79
29%
1.3
117+4
2.6
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.0
-
10Uni MinskUni Minsk79
29%
1.3
84+4
1.7
57%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.10.6
-
11SlonimSlonim79
43%
1.3
1211+1
3.3
100%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
12SmorgonSmorgon79
43%
1.3
89-1
2.4
86%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.11.3
-
13VolnaVolna88
25%
1.0
1418-4
4.0
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.82.2
-
14BATE IIBATE II77
29%
1.0
1114-3
3.6
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.0
-
15Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II87
25%
0.9
1115-4
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.41.9
-
16FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk77
29%
1.0
610-4
2.3
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
17Shakhter SoligorskShakhter Soligorsk87
25%
0.9
1322-9
4.4
88%
88%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.8
-
18Gomel IIGomel II85
12%
0.6
819-11
3.4
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.4
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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