The encounter between Minsk II and Smorgon is a tight one, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. Home and away win probabilities sit at 34% and 36%, respectively, while a draw is 30%. The expected total goals hover around 2.5, with the most probable total being two goals at a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability, and that is the only scoreline to mention. Minsk II, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and 0.91 conceded, whereas Smorgon, on the road, averages 0.89 scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 5.5 (96.1%), Under 4.5 (89.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.8%), and Away under 2.5 goals (86.8%). The recent form shows Minsk II coming off a defeat and Smorgon after two straight losses, adding to the uncertainty of the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minsk II win
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smorgon win
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.57
0.86
1.81
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.00
1.00
0.91
1.82
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
2.71
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smorgon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.27
0.88
0.88
1.00
1.77
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.12
0.60
1.40
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.45
0.91
0.73
0.89
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.9%
0-1
9.4%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
Minsk II goals ↓
Smorgon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
9.4%
6.7%
2.8%
0.9%
1
9.1%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.3%
7.8%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Minsk II goals (down), columns = Smorgon goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Minsk II is 0.57 points better than Smorgon in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Minsk II is 0.57 goals better than Smorgon in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Minsk II is 0.29 goals better than Smorgon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Minsk II or Draw
64.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Minsk II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minsk II or Smorgon
70.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Minsk II + Smorgon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Smorgon
65.8%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Draw + Smorgon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Minsk II over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Minsk II, so a minus line means Minsk II give that many goals of a start and Smorgon receive them. At -1, Minsk II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Minsk II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Minsk II)
Minsk II -2
5.0%
Draw -2
10.1%
Smorgon +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Minsk II)
Minsk II -1
15.1%
Draw -1
19.1%
Smorgon +1
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Minsk II)
Minsk II +1
64.1%
Draw +1
19.7%
Smorgon -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Minsk II)
Minsk II +2
83.8%
Draw +2
10.7%
Smorgon -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.71
0.36
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.36
0.45
0.27
0.91
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.86
2.50
1.00
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smorgon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.31
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.75
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.70
0.55
0.45
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.14
2.50
0.00
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smorgon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.41
0.35
0.69
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.20
0.60
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.75
0.36
0.27
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Minsk II and Smorgon have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Minsk II and Smorgon have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Minsk II and Smorgon have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Minsk II and Smorgon have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II