This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.27
0.93
1.13
1.33
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.42
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.35
1.24
1.22
0.89
1.50
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.2%
@ 2.37-0.5%
Under 2.5
60.8%
@ 1.56+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
11.8%
1-0
10.9%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
7.7%
1-2 ✓
7.3%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.3%
Modena goals ↓
Brescia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.3%
2.3%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.1%
7.7%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.7%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Modena goals (down), columns = Brescia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Modena is 0.10 points worse than Brescia in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Modena is 0.10 goals worse than Brescia in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Modena is 0.16 goals worse than Brescia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Modena is 1.8 percentage points better than Brescia in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Modena
For 5.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 16.2 · Total 32.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brescia
For 3.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Modena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
11.0
9.2
2.1
2.0
2.2
29.0
28.2
29.7
vs Stronger (6)
12.0
-
12.0
2.0
0.0
3.0
25.5
-
25.5
vs Similar (36)
9.3
10.4
8.0
1.9
2.2
1.7
31.0
29.6
32.7
vs Weaker (8)
11.5
13.0
10.0
3.0
2.2
3.8
24.2
23.5
25.0
% over line
58%
78%
40%
32%
33%
31%
89%
89%
90%
% under line
42%
22%
60%
68%
67%
69%
11%
11%
10%
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.3
2.2
2.3
2.0
29.0
29.8
28.1
vs Stronger (21)
9.4
9.8
9.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
25.5
25.0
26.0
vs Similar (28)
8.7
9.2
8.0
2.2
2.6
1.9
31.0
33.0
28.0
vs Weaker (1)
16.0
-
16.0
5.0
-
5.0
37.0
-
37.0
% over line
37%
40%
33%
36%
38%
33%
84%
90%
78%
% under line
63%
60%
67%
64%
62%
67%
16%
10%
22%
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Parma
10.9
Brescia
10.7
Pisa
10.4
Venezia
10.3
Bari
10.2
Modena
10.1
Ternana
10.0
Palermo
9.8
Cremonese
9.8
Ascoli
9.8
Como
9.7
Spezia
9.6
Reggiana
9.3
Cittadella
9.0
Sampdoria
9.0
Lecco
8.9
Cosenza
8.9
Catanzaro
8.8
FeralpiSalo
8.6
Sudtirol
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pisa
6.1
Cosenza
6.0
Cittadella
6.0
Lecco
6.0
Sudtirol
5.9
Ascoli
5.9
Parma
5.8
Spezia
5.6
Modena
5.6
Reggiana
5.5
Palermo
5.4
Sampdoria
5.4
FeralpiSalo
5.3
Catanzaro
5.3
Bari
5.3
Como
5.2
Cremonese
5.1
Brescia
5.1
Ternana
5.1
Venezia
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.9
Ascoli
31.2
Reggiana
31.1
Palermo
30.9
Pisa
30.1
Como
29.9
Bari
29.7
Sudtirol
29.4
Modena
29.0
Sampdoria
28.9
Catanzaro
28.6
Parma
28.4
Cosenza
28.3
Cremonese
28.2
Spezia
27.8
Brescia
27.8
Lecco
27.7
Ternana
27.6
FeralpiSalo
27.0
Venezia
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.6%
Under 9.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.7%
Under 3.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.5%
Under 21.5
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Modena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.27
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.57
0.55
0.27
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.33
0.47
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.08
0.00
0.83
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.41
0.56
0.22
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Modena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Modena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.86
0.45
0.73
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.83
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.82
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Modena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Modena
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fabio Abiuso22%
Luca Strizzolo19%
Antonio Palumbo17%
Kleis Bozhanaj14%
Luca Tremolada12%
Diego Falcinelli12%
Edoardo Duca11%
Jacopo Manconi10%
Nicholas Bonfanti10%
Thomas Battistella9%
Giovanni Zaro8%
Ettore Gliozzi6%
Fabio Gerli4%
Fabio Ponsi4%
Luca Magnino3%
Andrea Seculin0%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Simone Santoro0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Mario Gargiulo0%
Matteo Cotali0%
Shady Oukhadda0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Alessandro Pio Riccio0%
Romeo Giovannini0%
Lorenzo Di Stefano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Battistella41%
Simone Santoro33%
Antonio Pergreffi33%
Mario Gargiulo33%
Edoardo Duca32%
Fabio Ponsi31%
Abdoul Guiebre30%
Antonio Palumbo25%
Cristian Cauz25%
Matteo Cotali23%
Fabio Abiuso22%
Alessandro Pio Riccio21%
Luca Strizzolo19%
Kleis Bozhanaj19%
Giovanni Zaro19%
Diego Falcinelli18%
Jacopo Manconi17%
Fabio Gerli17%
Shady Oukhadda16%
Andrea Seculin12%
Luca Magnino11%
Luca Tremolada8%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Ettore Gliozzi0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Nicholas Bonfanti0%
Romeo Giovannini0%
Lorenzo Di Stefano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thomas Battistella14%
Fabio Gerli12%
Diego Falcinelli12%
Fabio Ponsi12%
Antonio Palumbo8%
Luca Tremolada8%
Jacopo Manconi7%
Andrea Seculin6%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Luca Magnino5%
Matteo Cotali3%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Strizzolo0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Mario Gargiulo0%
Ettore Gliozzi0%
Giovanni Zaro0%
Shady Oukhadda0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Edoardo Duca0%
Nicholas Bonfanti0%
Alessandro Pio Riccio0%
Kleis Bozhanaj0%
Romeo Giovannini0%
Fabio Abiuso0%
Lorenzo Di Stefano0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Tremolada24%
Fabio Abiuso22%
Simone Santoro13%
Luca Strizzolo12%
Ettore Gliozzi11%
Jacopo Manconi10%
Diego Falcinelli6%
Antonio Palumbo6%
Luca Magnino5%
Edoardo Duca5%
Kleis Bozhanaj5%
Thomas Battistella5%
Shady Oukhadda4%
Andrea Seculin0%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Mario Gargiulo0%
Fabio Gerli0%
Giovanni Zaro0%
Matteo Cotali0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Nicholas Bonfanti0%
Alessandro Pio Riccio0%
Fabio Ponsi0%
Romeo Giovannini0%
Lorenzo Di Stefano0%
Brescia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gennaro Borrelli29%
Gabriele Moncini26%
Birkir Bjarnason13%
Flavio Bianchi10%
Dimitri Bisoli9%
Nicolas Galazzi9%
Alexander Jallow8%
Davide Adorni4%
Fabrizio Paghera4%
Massimo Bertagnoli4%
Andrea Papetti3%
Lorenzo Dickmann3%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Massimiliano Mangraviti0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Giacomo Olzer0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Matteo Ferro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrea Cistana39%
Fabrizio Paghera36%
Mohamed Fares31%
Lorenzo Dickmann22%
Giacomo Olzer21%
Dimitri Bisoli21%
Tom Van De Looi19%
Massimo Bertagnoli18%
Nicolas Galazzi18%
Davide Adorni16%
Alexander Jallow16%
Matthieu Huard16%
Gennaro Borrelli14%
Michele Besaggio14%
Lorenzo Andrenacci11%
Matteo Ferro10%
Andrea Papetti9%
Gabriele Moncini9%
Birkir Bjarnason8%
Riccardo Fogliata8%
Luca Lezzerini4%
Massimiliano Mangraviti4%
Flavio Bianchi3%
Michele Avella0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Galazzi15%
Dimitri Bisoli12%
Lorenzo Dickmann8%
Riccardo Fogliata8%
Gennaro Borrelli7%
Andrea Papetti6%
Gabriele Moncini6%
Andrea Cistana4%
Fabrizio Paghera4%
Alexander Jallow4%
Massimiliano Mangraviti4%
Flavio Bianchi3%
Birkir Bjarnason0%
Davide Adorni0%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Massimo Bertagnoli0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Giacomo Olzer0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Matteo Ferro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gabriele Moncini23%
Flavio Bianchi13%
Gennaro Borrelli11%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Lorenzo Dickmann5%
Birkir Bjarnason5%
Dimitri Bisoli3%
Davide Adorni0%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Massimiliano Mangraviti0%
Massimo Bertagnoli0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Nicolas Galazzi0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Matteo Ferro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Reggiana
Pisa
Cittadella
Bari
Ternana
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco