Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting a home win and assigning it a 62% probability. The model's confidence stems from the home side's advantage at their venue, where they have a strong record against stronger opponents, scoring an average of 0.83 goals and conceding 1.67.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely outcome being a draw, 1-1, with a 10.9% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10.9% probability.
The home side's recent form is impressive, with a 2-game winning streak, including a 3-0 win against Gomel II. In contrast, Shakhter Soligorsk have struggled away from home, scoring an average of 0.4 goals against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, and the suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 79.6% probability. The home win percentage is 62%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 15%.
Results analysis
The home side’s recent three-game winning run proved decisive as Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 secured a 4-1 victory over Shakhter Soligorsk, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win at 60 % probability. The model’s favourite call was correct, and the final score matched the expected outcome. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99 % probability, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5 %, Under 6.5 at 97.1 %, Home +2 handicap at 94.3 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.5 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 93.1 %, and Under 5.5 at 92.6 %. The match delivered a high-scoring, home-dominated performance that aligned with every model selection.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win✓ Hit
60.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk win✗ Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.67
1.00
1.44
0.86
1.93
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.14
1.25
2.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.67
0.73
1.36
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.67
0.79
1.86
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.50
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.8%
3-0
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.7%
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals ↓
Shakhter Soligorsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.1%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.8%
11%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.0%
6.5%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.4%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals (down), columns = Shakhter Soligorsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 is 1.84 points better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of average points per game (2.71 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 is 0.80 goals better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of goals scored per game (2.43 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 is 2.32 goals better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 2.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or Draw✓ Hit
83.7%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
16%
covers Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or Shakhter Soligorsk✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
16%
covers Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 + Shakhter Soligorsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk✗ Miss
39.7%
Avg Implied -
60%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Shakhter Soligorsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.0%
Under
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.4%
Under
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Molodechno-DYuSSh 4, so a minus line means Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 give that many goals of a start and Shakhter Soligorsk receive them. At -1, Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.29
0.79
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.0%
Under 0.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.4%
Under 1.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.1%
Under 2.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.69
0.81
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.86
0.36
0.73
0.30
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.07
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
M4 wins
0
Draws
0
SS wins
Head-to-head
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs Shakhter Soligorsk · H/A from M4
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Gomel II