Monaco are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory with a 43% chance, followed by a 26% draw and a 31% chance for Marseille. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a lively match, but the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.9% chance, which aligns with the balanced attacking and defensive figures: Monaco averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Marseille averages 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.0%) and Under 5.5 (90.5%). All picks carry the edge percentages shown. Both sides have been on three-game winning runs, adding extra confidence to this encounter.
Results analysis
The win extends Monaco’s four-game winning run, while Marseille return to the field after a defeat. The final score was 2-0, a home win that matched the model’s favourite and its 43% probability. The Pythia model’s pick was correct. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.1%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.1%, and Under 5.5 at 90.5%. The match confirmed the model’s confidence across all its selections.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Monaco win✓ Hit
42.9%
Avg Implied 42.8% · @ 2.22
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
SBO
2.24
Dafabet
2.24
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.60
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.72
Bet365
3.70
Superbet
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Marseille win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.08
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Monaco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.57
1.85
1.15
1.76
1.88
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.42
1.33
0.83
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
1.29
2.33
1.17
1.75
1.38
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marseille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.47
1.94
1.25
2.00
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (16)
1.81
1.44
2.09
1.18
1.20
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
1.23
1.60
1.40
2.75
1.12
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
@ 1.17+3.1%
Under 1.5
16.7%
@ 4.74-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Unibet
5.30
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
Betano
4.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.60+1.5%
Under 2.5
39.0%
@ 2.35-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Under
Unibet
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.37
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.7%
@ 2.45-0.1%
Under 3.5
61.3%
@ 1.55+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.6%
@ 1.48+0.6%
No
36.4%
@ 2.52-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
No
Unibet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 6.67+4.8%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.40+3.6%
1-2
7.6%@ 9.99+3.1%
2-2
6.5%@ 10.31+2.1%
1-0
6.2%@ 9.99+1.7%
2-0 ✓
6.2%@ 12.18+2.5%
0-0
5.3%@ 13.69+2.0%
3-1
5.1%@ 14.21+1.9%
Monaco goals ↓
Marseille goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.1%
4.5%
2.1%
0.8%
1
6.2%
12%
7.6%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.2%
9.0%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.5%
5.1%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
4
1.5%
2.2%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Monaco goals (down), columns = Marseille goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Monaco is 0.15 points worse than Marseille in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Monaco is 0.09 goals worse than Marseille in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Monaco is 0.26 goals worse than Marseille in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Monaco is 3.1 percentage points worse than Marseille in terms of average possession (54% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Monaco
For 5.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Marseille
For 5.9 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monaco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.8
10.1
4.3
3.8
4.6
23.5
23.6
23.5
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
9.0
12.7
4.5
4.7
4.3
19.7
20.0
19.3
vs Similar (20)
9.2
8.9
9.5
3.8
3.8
3.8
24.4
25.8
22.9
vs Weaker (24)
9.5
8.7
10.0
4.6
3.6
5.3
23.8
22.5
24.8
% over line
48%
30%
63%
64%
57%
70%
64%
70%
59%
% under line
52%
70%
37%
36%
43%
30%
36%
30%
41%
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marseille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
8.9
4.3
4.4
4.2
23.3
23.4
23.2
vs Stronger (4)
8.0
8.0
8.0
5.2
4.0
5.7
25.5
23.0
26.3
vs Similar (26)
9.5
9.2
10.0
4.6
4.6
4.5
22.6
23.1
21.8
vs Weaker (20)
8.4
8.9
8.1
3.9
4.2
3.5
23.9
24.0
23.8
% over line
42%
48%
36%
72%
72%
72%
52%
48%
56%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
28%
28%
28%
48%
52%
44%
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.4
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.5
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Le Mans
9.1
Marseille
9.0
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.6
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Lille
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.6
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.0%
@ 1.90-8.5%
Under 9.5
59.0%
@ 1.85+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.8%
@ 1.67-0.2%
Under 3.5
44.2%
@ 2.12+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Unibet
2.17
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
64.7%
@ 1.41-0.2%
Under 21.5
35.3%
@ 2.60+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Under
1xBet
2.60
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Monaco or Draw✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied 69.0% · @ 1.37
Edge
+6.1%
43%
26%
32%
covers Monaco + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Monaco or Marseille✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.1%
43%
26%
32%
covers Monaco + Marseille
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Draw or Marseille✗ Miss
49.7%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.66
Edge
-7.3%
43%
26%
32%
covers Draw + Marseille
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Monaco over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.3%
@ 1.16+4.1%
Under
15.7%
@ 4.72-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Pinnacle
4.61
Monaco over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.2%
@ 1.85+4.7%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.89-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Monaco over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.3%
@ 3.66+2.8%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.25-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.83
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Under
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Monaco over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 8.11+0.2%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.05-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Marseille over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.5%
@ 1.24-3.5%
Under
28.5%
@ 3.72+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.87
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
Marseille over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.7%
@ 2.23-6.3%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.61+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
Marseille over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 4.94-5.6%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.15+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marseille over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 11.50-4.3%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.50
1xBet
12.50
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Monaco, so a minus line means Monaco give that many goals of a start and Marseille receive them. At -1, Monaco must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Monaco win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Monaco)Actual: Draw
Monaco -2
13.3%
@ 8.15+2.2%
Draw -2
15.6%
@ 6.23+1.2%
Marseille +2
71.1%
@ 1.21-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Away
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Monaco)Actual: Monaco
Monaco -1
28.9%
@ 3.88+5.6%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 4.11-0.6%
Marseille +1
49.7%
@ 1.65-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.84
Unibet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Betfair
1.62
Handicap +1 (Monaco)Actual: Monaco
Monaco +1
75.1%
@ 1.37+8.9%
Draw +1
14.2%
@ 4.88-4.4%
Marseille -1
10.7%
@ 5.97-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Draw
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Away
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Unibet
5.75
Handicap +2 (Monaco)Actual: Monaco
Monaco +2
89.3%
@ 1.10+8.0%
Draw +2
7.2%
@ 7.79-4.3%
Marseille -2
3.5%
@ 12.30-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Monaco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.77
0.46
0.71
0.59
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.42
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marseille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.56
0.38
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
0.64
0.27
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.54
0.40
0.60
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.4%
@ 1.29-3.4%
Under 0.5
30.6%
@ 3.46+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.2%
@ 2.32-4.3%
Under 1.5
63.8%
@ 1.58+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.40
William Hil
2.38
1xBet
2.38
SBO
2.38
Under
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 5.32-3.4%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.14+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Monaco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.4%
@ 1.76-1.4%
Under
48.6%
@ 1.98+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Monaco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 4.73-4.3%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.15+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Monaco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 12.12-4.2%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Marseille over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.3%
@ 2.00-2.3%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.75+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Unibet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Marseille over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 5.98-3.2%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.09+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.20
Betano
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Unibet
5.80
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marseille over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 15.50-4.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Monaco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
1.08
0.69
1.06
1.29
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.79
1.33
0.67
0.88
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Marseille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marseille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.93
1.38
0.88
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.00
1.45
0.91
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.69
1.20
0.80
1.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.3%
@ 1.16+2.2%
Under 0.5
16.7%
@ 4.96-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Unibet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Superbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.4%
@ 1.78-2.4%
Under 1.5
49.6%
@ 1.99+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Unibet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.3%
@ 3.40-8.3%
Under 2.5
80.7%
@ 1.30+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
1xBet
3.44
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Monaco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.6%
@ 1.53+1.8%
Under
37.4%
@ 2.37-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Under
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.30
Monaco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 3.45-5.4%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.26+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Monaco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 8.87-4.6%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.30
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marseille over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.5%
@ 1.69-6.5%
Under
51.5%
@ 2.07+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Marseille over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 4.33-5.8%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.18+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Marseille over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 11.25-5.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.5%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.3%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.09
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.3%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.5%
1.30
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
79.7%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.36
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.26
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.5%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.2%
1.27
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.1%
1.37
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.1%
1.37
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.7%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
-3.5%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
71.1%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
-3.4%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.8%
1.51
Unibet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.48
+9.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Monaco
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paris Brunner75%
Mika Biereth50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Eric Dier25%
Lamine Camara25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Lukáš Hrádecký25%
Denis Zakaria25%
Vanderson25%
Nazinho25%
Lamine Camara25%
Anis Soubeir25%
Eric Dier0%
Mika Biereth0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Paris Brunner0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazinho50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Eric Dier25%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Lamine Camara0%
Paris Brunner0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paris Brunner50%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Aleksandr Golovin0%
Eric Dier0%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Lamine Camara0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Marseille · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mason Greenwood41%
Neal Maupay33%
Amine Gouiri33%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang28%
Igor Paixão27%
Angel Gomes20%
Ethan Nwaneri18%
Hamed Junior Traorè17%
Tadjidine Mmadi17%
Robinio Vaz16%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg12%
Amir Murillo8%
Tim Weah8%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley6%
Nayef Aguerd5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Bilal Nadir4%
Leonardo Balerdi3%
Benjamin Pavard3%
Geoffrey Kondogbia0%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Emerson Palmieri0%
Facundo Medina0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Arthur Vermeeren0%
Tochukwu Nnadi0%
Darryl Bakola0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Medina32%
Quinten Timber31%
Nayef Aguerd27%
Geoffrey Kondogbia25%
Benjamin Pavard22%
Himad Abdelli22%
Amir Murillo21%
Leonardo Balerdi20%
Angel Gomes20%
Ethan Nwaneri18%
Bilal Nadir18%
Ulisses Garcia17%
Tim Weah15%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg14%
Mason Greenwood14%
Matt O'Riley12%
Tochukwu Nnadi12%
Emerson Palmieri11%
Darryl Bakola10%
Gerónimo Rulli8%
Arthur Vermeeren8%
Amine Gouiri7%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley6%
Hamed Junior Traorè6%
Robinio Vaz5%
Igor Paixão5%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang2%
Neal Maupay0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Tadjidine Mmadi0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matt O'Riley21%
Amine Gouiri19%
Mason Greenwood18%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang18%
Tadjidine Mmadi17%
Igor Paixão15%
Bilal Nadir14%
Tochukwu Nnadi12%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg12%
Hamed Junior Traorè11%
Robinio Vaz11%
Tim Weah10%
Darryl Bakola10%
Ethan Nwaneri9%
Benjamin Pavard8%
Amir Murillo8%
Arthur Vermeeren8%
Geoffrey Kondogbia6%
Emerson Palmieri6%
Angel Gomes5%
Facundo Medina4%
Leonardo Balerdi3%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Neal Maupay0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Nayef Aguerd0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mason Greenwood48%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang22%
Igor Paixão22%
Amine Gouiri19%
Leonardo Balerdi6%
Hamed Junior Traorè6%
Tim Weah5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg2%
Angel Gomes0%
Geoffrey Kondogbia0%
Ulisses Garcia0%
Emerson Palmieri0%
Benjamin Pavard0%
Amir Murillo0%
Facundo Medina0%
Neal Maupay0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Nayef Aguerd0%
Pol Lirola0%
Jeffrey De Lange0%
Quinten Timber0%
Gerónimo Rulli0%
Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley0%
Bilal Nadir0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Arthur Vermeeren0%
Tochukwu Nnadi0%
Robinio Vaz0%
Darryl Bakola0%
Tadjidine Mmadi0%
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri0%
Nouhoum Kamissoko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Monaco's squad is €101m more valuable than Marseille's (€326m vs €225m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Monaco's attack is €57m more valuable than Marseille's (€148m vs €91m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Monaco's midfield is €17m more valuable than Marseille's (€84m vs €68m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Monaco's defence is €27m more valuable than Marseille's (€93m vs €66m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre