Mons Calpe are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 67% chance of a home win, 19% for a draw and 15% for a Glacis United victory. The prediction favours a 2-1 scoreline, which carries a 9.2% probability, and the average total goals is 3.7, with the most likely total of three goals at 21%. Mons Calpe’s home form shows they average 1.75 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Glacis United, playing away against stronger opponents, averages 1.25 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Under 7.5 at 96.3%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.2%, Home +2 handicap at 94.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 92.3%, and Under 6.5 at 91.5%. Mons Calpe’s recent form of LLWWL, following two straight defeats, and Glacis United’s LDLLD after a loss to Lincoln Red Imps, underline the home side’s advantage and the model’s confidence in a 2-1 victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mons Calpe win
66.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glacis United win
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.50
1.79
1.43
2.50
1.56
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.29
1.33
2.67
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.73
2.00
1.43
2.12
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
3.12
0.38
1.75
0.50
4.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glacis United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.57
0.80
2.47
1.27
2.67
vs Stronger (22)
0.82
3.09
0.30
3.20
1.25
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.12
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.0%
Under 2.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.3%
Under 3.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
7.9%
2-0
7.9%
3-0
6.7%
1-0
5.4%
2-2
5.4%
4-1
5.0%
Mons Calpe goals ↓
Glacis United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
2.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
1
5.4%
7.9%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
2
7.9%
9.2%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.7%
7.9%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
4
4.3%
5.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mons Calpe goals (down), columns = Glacis United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Mons Calpe is 1.42 points better than Glacis United in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 0.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Mons Calpe is 1.52 goals better than Glacis United in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Mons Calpe is 1.29 goals better than Glacis United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 2.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mons Calpe or Draw
85.3%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
15%
covers Mons Calpe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe or Glacis United
81.5%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
15%
covers Mons Calpe + Glacis United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Glacis United
33.2%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
15%
covers Draw + Glacis United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5
Over
92.3%
Under
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 3.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mons Calpe, so a minus line means Mons Calpe give that many goals of a start and Glacis United receive them. At -1, Mons Calpe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mons Calpe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe -2
26.9%
Draw -2
19.3%
Glacis United +2
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe -1
46.2%
Draw -1
20.5%
Glacis United +1
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe +1
85.3%
Draw +1
9.0%
Glacis United -1
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe +2
94.3%
Draw +2
4.0%
Glacis United -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.79
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.71
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.12
0.50
0.00
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glacis United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
1.45
0.20
1.60
0.42
1.33
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.25
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.2%
Under 1.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
Under 2.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mons Calpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.00
0.79
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
0.67
1.33
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.93
1.00
0.71
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Glacis United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glacis United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.43
0.27
1.33
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (22)
0.50
1.64
0.10
1.60
0.83
1.67
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.60
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.0%
Under 0.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.2%
Under 1.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.8%
Under 2.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
43.5%
Under
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.0%
Under
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glacis United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Glacis United have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Glacis United have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Glacis United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Glacis United have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Europa Point