Mons Calpe’s recent form, with two straight defeats followed by a win, sets the tone for a confident home outing. The model’s 73% probability of a home win reflects the team’s strong home scoring average of 1.75 goals and only 0.5 conceded, especially against a weaker opponent. In contrast, Hound Dogs, playing away against a stronger side, have struggled, averaging only 0.67 goals scored and conceding 3.22. The most likely outcome is a 2-0 victory for Mons Calpe, with a 9.4% chance, and the expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair. The model favours a home win, with 73% for Mons Calpe, 16% for a draw, and 10% for Hound Dogs. The single most likely total is 3 goals, at 21%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 7.5 (96.6%), Home +2 handicap (96.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (93.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.6%), Under 6.5 (92.1%), Home or Draw (89.7%) and Home +1 handicap (89.7%). Each selection carries its own probability, with edges noted where applicable.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mons Calpe win
73.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs win
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.50
1.79
1.43
2.50
1.56
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.29
1.33
2.67
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.73
2.00
1.43
2.12
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
3.12
0.38
1.75
0.50
4.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
2.91
0.33
3.08
0.64
2.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
3.44
0.22
3.67
0.67
3.22
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.7%
Under 1.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.9%
Under 2.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
8.1%
1-1
7.3%
1-0
6.3%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
5.5%
Mons Calpe goals ↓
Hound Dogs goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
1.8%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
1
6.3%
7.3%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
2
9.4%
9.0%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
8.4%
8.1%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
4
5.7%
5.5%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mons Calpe goals (down), columns = Hound Dogs goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Mons Calpe is 1.60 points better than Hound Dogs in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 0.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Mons Calpe is 1.88 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 0.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Mons Calpe is 1.70 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mons Calpe or Draw
89.7%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
10%
covers Mons Calpe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe or Hound Dogs
83.6%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
10%
covers Mons Calpe + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hound Dogs
26.7%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
10%
covers Draw + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5
Over
93.3%
Under
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 3.5
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mons Calpe, so a minus line means Mons Calpe give that many goals of a start and Hound Dogs receive them. At -1, Mons Calpe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mons Calpe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe -2
32.6%
Draw -2
20.6%
Hound Dogs +2
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe -1
53.2%
Draw -1
20.1%
Hound Dogs +1
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe +1
89.7%
Draw +1
6.8%
Hound Dogs -1
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe +2
96.5%
Draw +2
2.6%
Hound Dogs -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.79
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.71
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.12
0.50
0.00
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
1.57
0.08
1.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.78
0.11
2.00
0.33
1.56
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mons Calpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.00
0.79
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
0.67
1.33
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.93
1.00
0.71
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.26
1.35
0.25
1.33
0.27
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.67
0.11
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Hound Dogs have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Hound Dogs have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Hound Dogs have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Hound Dogs have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point