The model sees Lincoln Red Imps FC as the clear favourite, rating an 64 % chance of victory against Mons Calpe, who sit at only 15 % and a 21 % draw probability. The prediction of an away win is driven by the Imps’ strong away form - they average 2.89 goals scored and only 0.44 conceded when facing weaker opponents - versus Mons Calpe’s struggle at home, where they concede 2.67 goals on average against stronger teams. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely scoreline 1-2 for the away side, a 9.9 % chance. Home side statistics show 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded, while the away side’s figures are 2.89 scored and 0.44 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0 %), Under 6.5 (95.4 %), Away +2 handicap (94.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (91.8 %), Under 5.5 (89.3 %), Away over 0.5 goals (89.0 %) and Draw or Away (84.8 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mons Calpe win
13.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC win
65.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.50
1.79
1.43
2.50
1.56
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.29
1.33
2.67
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.73
2.00
1.43
2.12
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
3.12
0.38
1.75
0.50
4.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.87
2.31
0.81
2.14
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.20
1.25
1.12
2.14
1.29
vs Weaker (14)
2.93
0.50
3.71
0.43
2.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.0%
Under 2.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.7%
Under 3.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.6%
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
0-1
8.6%
0-3
7.9%
1-3
7.3%
0-0
5.2%
2-2
4.6%
Mons Calpe goals ↓
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
8.6%
11%
7.9%
4.4%
1
3.1%
9.7%
9.8%
7.3%
4.0%
2
1.8%
4.1%
4.6%
3.4%
1.9%
3
0.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.0%
0.6%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mons Calpe goals (down), columns = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Mons Calpe is 0.70 points worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Mons Calpe is 0.96 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 3.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Mons Calpe is 0.67 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mons Calpe or Draw
34.1%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Mons Calpe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe or Lincoln Red Imps FC
79.4%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Mons Calpe + Lincoln Red Imps FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lincoln Red Imps FC
86.5%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Draw + Lincoln Red Imps FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5
Over
89.2%
Under
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 3.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mons Calpe, so a minus line means Mons Calpe give that many goals of a start and Lincoln Red Imps FC receive them. At -1, Mons Calpe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mons Calpe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe -2
1.2%
Draw -2
3.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC +2
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe -1
4.6%
Draw -1
8.8%
Lincoln Red Imps FC +1
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe +1
34.1%
Draw +1
22.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC -1
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe +2
56.6%
Draw +2
20.0%
Lincoln Red Imps FC -2
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.79
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.71
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.12
0.50
0.00
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.06
0.50
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.47
0.50
0.62
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.36
1.86
0.29
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.5%
Under 1.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mons Calpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.00
0.79
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
0.67
1.33
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.93
1.00
0.71
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.25
0.31
1.43
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.73
0.75
0.50
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.14
1.86
0.14
1.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.4%
Under 0.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.5%
Under 1.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.8%
Under 2.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
73.4%
Under
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 HT goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 2H goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kike Gómez33%
Christian Rutjens25%
Nicholas Pozo20%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayman El Ghobashy67%
Mandi60%
Graeme Torrilla50%
Jaylan Hankins40%
Joe33%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo33%
Tjay De Barr17%
Kike Gómez17%
Toni Kolega0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe33%
Toni Kolega17%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Juanje Argüez17%
Mandi0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Toni0%
Kike Gómez0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nano20%
Kike Gómez17%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Mons Calpe's squad is €1m less valuable than Lincoln Red Imps FC's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point