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Mons Calpe vs Lions Gibraltar Result & Analysis

Date: 22/03/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 3-1
Mons Calpe
Mons Calpe
Vs
40%
26%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lions Gibraltar
Lions Gibraltar
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This highly anticipated match between Mons Calpe and Lions Gibraltar in the Gibraltar Premier Division is finely balanced, with Mons Calpe coming off a defeat to Europa, while Lions Gibraltar drew against St Joseph S Fc. The home win percentage stands at 40%, the draw percentage at 26%, and the away win percentage at 34%.

The model's selection is a home win, with an expected total of 3.1 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.7%. Mons Calpe have a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.71 goals and conceding 2.29, while Lions Gibraltar have a decent away record, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.0 against similar opponents.

The model suggests the Over 1.5 goals selection at 83.2%, and the Under 2.5 goals selection is not present in the suggested picks.

Results analysis

The win extends Mons Calpe's recent form woes, but they managed to bounce back with a 3-1 victory over Lions Gibraltar. The home side's win was the actual result, aligning with the model's pre-match call of a home win, which had a probability of 40%. The model's selection was correct, as the home side's recent form had been underwhelming, with a last five result of LWWLW.

The model's selection of a home win was the favourite, with the other options having probabilities of 26% for a draw and 34% for an away win. The model's suggested picks largely came in, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting, having a probability of 83.2%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mons Calpe win✓ Hit
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar win✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Mons CalpeMons Calpe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W12L13L40W11D30W21W21W03L20WA·EUR29/11A·MAG06/12H·ST 12/12A·GLA20/12H·HOU11/01A·LIO19/01A·LYN25/01H·EUR09/02A·LIN22/02H·COL04/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.631.401.672.531.60
vs Stronger (8)1.002.120.502.501.501.75
vs Similar (11)2.001.731.831.672.201.80
vs Weaker (11)2.641.181.601.003.501.33
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L12L20W70W03L11D04L12L50W51WH·LYN01/12A·EUR07/12A·COL22/12H·MAN12/01H·MON19/01A·MAG24/01H·ST 07/02H·LIN19/02A·GLA23/02H·HOU08/03
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.872.001.791.381.94
vs Stronger (14)1.292.572.002.000.892.89
vs Similar (8)1.121.500.802.001.670.67
vs Weaker (8)2.881.003.501.252.250.75
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.7%
No
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
6.0%
2-0
5.8%
0-1
5.4%
0-0
5.4%
Mons Calpe goals ↓
Lions Gibraltar goals →
01234
05.4%5.4%4.9%2.4%0.9%
16.0%12%8.0%4.0%1.5%
25.8%8.7%6.6%3.3%1.2%
33.2%4.8%3.6%1.8%0.7%
41.3%2.0%1.5%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mons Calpe goals (down), columns = Lions Gibraltar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Mons Calpe is 0.37 points better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 1.59).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Mons Calpe is 0.37 goals better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Mons Calpe is 0.33 goals better than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Mons CalpeMons Calpe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L11D10W00D10W21W10W01L10WA·EUR29/11A·MAG06/12H·ST 12/12A·GLA20/12H·HOU11/01A·LIO19/01A·LYN25/01H·EUR09/02A·LIN22/02H·COL04/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.700.530.671.130.73
vs Stronger (8)0.500.880.251.250.750.50
vs Similar (11)0.820.820.830.670.801.00
vs Weaker (11)1.090.450.400.201.670.67
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D10W40W01L10W03L00D40W31WH·LYN01/12A·EUR07/12A·COL22/12H·MAN12/01H·MON19/01A·MAG24/01H·ST 07/02H·LIN19/02A·GLA23/02H·HOU08/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.871.140.710.881.00
vs Stronger (14)0.791.361.001.000.671.56
vs Similar (8)0.620.380.400.401.000.33
vs Weaker (8)1.750.502.250.751.250.25
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
MAG (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Mons Calpe vs Lions Gibraltar · H/A from MC
DateH/AGameScore
19/01/26ALions Gibraltar Vs MC0-3
05/10/25HMC Vs Lions Gibraltar0-2
21/12/24HMC Vs Lions Gibraltar0-2
21/09/24ALions Gibraltar Vs MC4-2
02/03/24HMC Vs Lions Gibraltar2-2
24/11/23ALions Gibraltar Vs MC0-0
11/04/23HMC Vs Lions Gibraltar0-3
28/01/23ALions Gibraltar Vs MC2-5

Mons CalpeMons Calpe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/03/26HMC Vs College 19752-0
22/02/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs MC3-0
09/02/26HMC Vs Europa Point2-1
25/01/26ALynx Vs MC1-2
19/01/26ALions Gibraltar Vs MC0-3
11/01/26HMC Vs Hound Dogs1-1
20/12/25AGlacis United Vs MC0-4
12/12/25HMC Vs St Joseph S Fc1-3
06/12/25AMagpies Vs MC2-1
29/11/25AEuropa Vs MC1-2

Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/26HLG Vs Hound Dogs5-1
23/02/26AGlacis United Vs LG0-5
19/02/26HLG Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC1-2
07/02/26HLG Vs St Joseph S Fc0-4
24/01/26AMagpies Vs LG1-1
19/01/26HLG Vs Mons Calpe0-3
12/01/26HLG Vs Manchester 627-0
22/12/25ACollege 1975 Vs LG0-2
07/12/25AEuropa Point Vs LG2-1
01/12/25HLG Vs Lynx0-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Mons Calpe
Mons Calpe
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.34
HomeWLDWW1.27
AwayLWWWL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals3.563.044.12
Over 1.5 %92%85%100%
Over 2.5 %76%58%96%
Over 3.5 %46%35%58%
Scored1.701.382.04
Conceded1.861.652.08
BTTS54%42%67%
Clean Sheet24%31%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Lions Gibraltar
Lions Gibraltar
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW1.40
HomeWLLLW1.54
AwayLLWDW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%35%
AVG goals3.483.793.19
Over 1.5 %92%88%96%
Over 2.5 %70%75%65%
Over 3.5 %42%54%31%
Scored1.721.961.50
Conceded1.761.831.69
BTTS64%62%65%
Clean Sheet14%12%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC2772
85%
2.7
8917+72
3.9
93%
81%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.30.6
-
2St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc2763
74%
2.3
9617+79
4.2
81%
74%
70%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0013.60.6
-
3EuropaEuropa2756
67%
2.1
5321+32
2.7
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Mons CalpeMons Calpe2753
63%
2.0
6335+28
3.6
93%
78%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
5Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar2743
48%
1.6
5344+9
3.6
89%
70%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
6LynxLynx2734
37%
1.3
3845-7
3.1
70%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7MagpiesMagpies2228
36%
1.3
2532-7
2.6
68%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
8Europa PointEuropa Point2222
32%
1.0
3161-30
4.2
86%
82%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.8
-
9Manchester 62Manchester 622217
23%
0.8
2879-51
4.9
86%
82%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.6
-
10College 1975College 19752214
14%
0.6
1545-30
2.7
68%
36%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
11Glacis UnitedGlacis United2212
14%
0.5
1857-39
3.4
86%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
12Hound DogsHound Dogs228
5%
0.4
1066-56
3.5
91%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →

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