Mons Calpe are tipped to win this Gibraltar Premier Division clash, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 25% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of a Lynx victory. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals on average, but the model predicts a 1-1 scoreline as the most likely result, with a 11.5% probability. Mons Calpe’s home form shows they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against similar opposition, while Lynx, playing away, averages 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 5.5 (90.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.8%), Home +2 handicap (88.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.7%) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.8%). Mons Calpe’s recent form shows a 5-match sequence of LLWWL, still after two straight defeats, while Lynx’s last five were LDLLL, coming off a 0-2 loss to Magpies.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mons Calpe win
47.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lynx win
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.50
1.79
1.43
2.50
1.56
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.29
1.33
2.67
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.73
2.00
1.43
2.12
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
3.12
0.38
1.75
0.50
4.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lynx
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.67
1.29
1.93
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.36
0.50
3.75
1.43
1.57
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.75
1.50
1.83
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.43
1.75
0.25
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.2%
No
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
6.9%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
5.5%
Mons Calpe goals ↓
Lynx goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
4.8%
3.9%
1.7%
0.6%
1
6.9%
12%
6.9%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.4%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.3%
5.7%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.9%
2.5%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mons Calpe goals (down), columns = Lynx goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Mons Calpe is 0.70 points better than Lynx in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Mons Calpe is 0.93 goals better than Lynx in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Mons Calpe is 0.37 goals better than Lynx in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mons Calpe or Draw
72.8%
Avg Implied -
48%
25%
27%
covers Mons Calpe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe or Lynx
74.8%
Avg Implied -
48%
25%
27%
covers Mons Calpe + Lynx
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lynx
52.3%
Avg Implied -
48%
25%
27%
covers Draw + Lynx
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5
Over
83.5%
Under
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 3.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 0.5
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mons Calpe, so a minus line means Mons Calpe give that many goals of a start and Lynx receive them. At -1, Mons Calpe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mons Calpe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe -2
12.0%
Draw -2
14.8%
Lynx +2
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe -1
26.8%
Draw -1
20.9%
Lynx +1
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe +1
72.8%
Draw +1
15.1%
Lynx -1
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mons Calpe)
Mons Calpe +2
87.9%
Draw +2
8.0%
Lynx -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.79
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.71
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.12
0.50
0.00
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lynx
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.50
0.79
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.91
0.25
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.08
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mons Calpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.00
0.79
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
0.67
1.33
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.93
1.00
0.71
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lynx
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.79
1.14
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.45
0.25
2.75
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Lynx have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Lynx have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Lynx have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Mons Calpe and Lynx have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Glacis United
Europa Point