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Mons Calpe vs St Joseph S Fc Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 17:30
Final 3-2
Mons Calpe
Mons Calpe
Vs
11%
19%
70%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
St Joseph S Fc
St Joseph S Fc
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

St Joseph S FC are the clear favourites in this Premier Division match against Mons Calpe, with a 70.5% chance of an away win according to the model. This is largely due to Mons Calpe's struggles at home, particularly against teams with similar strength, where they have scored and conceded an average of 2.14 goals each. In contrast, St Joseph S FC have shown resilience away from home, scoring 1.33 goals and conceding just 0.5 goals per game against similar opponents.

The model predicts a high-scoring match with an expected total of 3.2 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2 in favour of St Joseph S FC, with a 11.2% probability. The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goal total, which it has correctly predicted in this match. The home win percentage is 11%, the draw percentage is 19%, and the away win percentage is 70%. The model's selection for an away win has a 70.5% probability, while the Over 1.5 goal total has an 84.1% chance of occurring.

Results analysis

Mons Calpe's 3-2 win over St Joseph S Fc was a major upset, as the home side extended their run of inconsistency with a second consecutive win after coming off a defeat. The win extends their run of not losing consecutive matches. The pre-match favourite, St Joseph S Fc, failed to come through, with the model's selection of an Away win proving incorrect at 70.5%. Another selection, Over 1.5, hit at 84.1%, while the model's call of Away win was wrong.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mons Calpe win✓ Hit
10.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc win✗ Miss
70.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Mons CalpeMons Calpe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W11D30W21W21W03L20W31W12L32WA·GLA20/12H·HOU11/01A·LIO19/01A·LYN25/01H·EUR09/02A·LIN22/02H·COL04/03H·LIO22/03A·LIN05/04A·LYN12/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.571.641.502.561.62
vs Stronger (7)1.002.000.332.331.501.75
vs Similar (12)2.331.672.331.502.331.83
vs Weaker (11)2.641.181.601.003.501.33
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W41W40W60W40W01L70W01L10W00DA·EUR09/01A·LIN14/01A·GLA17/01H·HOU25/01A·LIO07/02H·LYN21/02A·EUR03/03A·LIN21/03H·LYN04/04A·EUR11/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.400.633.470.873.330.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.001.400.502.501.330.67
vs Weaker (25)3.880.483.920.623.830.33
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 3.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.2%
1-2
9.5%
0-3
8.9%
1-1
8.8%
0-1
8.6%
1-3
7.6%
0-4
5.3%
0-0
4.8%
Mons Calpe goals ↓
St Joseph S Fc goals →
01234
04.8%8.6%11%8.9%5.3%
12.6%8.8%9.5%7.6%4.5%
21.4%3.4%4.1%3.2%1.9%
30.4%1.0%1.2%0.9%0.5%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mons Calpe goals (down), columns = St Joseph S Fc goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Mons Calpe is 0.37 points worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 2.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Mons Calpe is 1.22 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 3.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Mons Calpe is 0.67 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 0.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Mons CalpeMons Calpe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W21W10W01L10W21W01L10WA·GLA20/12H·HOU11/01A·LIO19/01A·LYN25/01H·EUR09/02A·LIN22/02H·COL04/03H·LIO22/03A·LIN05/04A·LYN12/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.700.710.641.120.75
vs Stronger (7)0.570.860.331.000.750.75
vs Similar (12)1.000.831.170.830.830.83
vs Weaker (11)1.090.450.400.201.670.67
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W20W10W30W00D10W00D00D00DA·EUR09/01A·LIN14/01A·GLA17/01H·HOU25/01A·LIO07/02H·LYN21/02A·EUR03/03A·LIN21/03H·LYN04/04A·EUR11/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.231.530.331.330.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.600.200.000.501.000.00
vs Weaker (25)1.600.241.770.311.420.17
Clean sheet %80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.1%-------✓ Hit
Away win70.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
MAG (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
MC wins
2
Draws
4
SJS wins

Head-to-head

Mons Calpe vs St Joseph S Fc · H/A from MC
DateH/AGameScore
12/12/25HMC Vs St Joseph S Fc1-3
13/09/25ASt Joseph S Fc Vs MC1-3
15/12/24ASt Joseph S Fc Vs MC2-1
15/09/24HMC Vs St Joseph S Fc1-3
20/04/24HMC Vs St Joseph S Fc0-2
14/04/24ASt Joseph S Fc Vs MC1-2
16/01/24HMC Vs St Joseph S Fc1-1
16/12/22ASt Joseph S Fc Vs MC2-2

Mons CalpeMons Calpe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26ALynx Vs MC2-3
05/04/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs MC2-1
22/03/26HMC Vs Lions Gibraltar3-1
04/03/26HMC Vs College 19752-0
22/02/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs MC3-0
09/02/26HMC Vs Europa Point2-1
25/01/26ALynx Vs MC1-2
19/01/26ALions Gibraltar Vs MC0-3
11/01/26HMC Vs Hound Dogs1-1
20/12/25AGlacis United Vs MC0-4

St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AEuropa Vs SJS0-0
04/04/26HSJS Vs Lynx1-0
21/03/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs SJS1-0
03/03/26AEuropa Point Vs SJS0-7
21/02/26HSJS Vs Lynx0-1
07/02/26ALions Gibraltar Vs SJS0-4
25/01/26HSJS Vs Hound Dogs6-0
17/01/26AGlacis United Vs SJS0-4
14/01/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs SJS1-4
09/01/26AEuropa Vs SJS0-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Mons Calpe
Mons Calpe
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.34
HomeLDWWW1.27
AwayWWLLW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals3.643.154.17
Over 1.5 %94%88%100%
Over 2.5 %78%62%96%
Over 3.5 %48%38%58%
Scored1.761.462.08
Conceded1.881.692.08
BTTS56%46%67%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---
St Joseph S Fc
St Joseph S Fc
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD2.42
HomeWWWLW2.28
AwayWWWLD2.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%72%80%
AVG goals3.643.563.72
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %70%76%64%
Over 3.5 %56%48%64%
Scored2.982.723.24
Conceded0.660.840.48
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet48%40%56%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC2772
85%
2.7
8917+72
3.9
93%
81%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.30.6
-
2St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc2763
74%
2.3
9617+79
4.2
81%
74%
70%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0013.60.6
-
3EuropaEuropa2756
67%
2.1
5321+32
2.7
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Mons CalpeMons Calpe2753
63%
2.0
6335+28
3.6
93%
78%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
5Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar2743
48%
1.6
5344+9
3.6
89%
70%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
6LynxLynx2734
37%
1.3
3845-7
3.1
70%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7MagpiesMagpies2228
36%
1.3
2532-7
2.6
68%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
8Europa PointEuropa Point2222
32%
1.0
3161-30
4.2
86%
82%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.8
-
9Manchester 62Manchester 622217
23%
0.8
2879-51
4.9
86%
82%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.6
-
10College 1975College 19752214
14%
0.6
1545-30
2.7
68%
36%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
11Glacis UnitedGlacis United2212
14%
0.5
1857-39
3.4
86%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
12Hound DogsHound Dogs228
5%
0.4
1066-56
3.5
91%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →

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