Pythia gives Montpellier a 54% win probability against Clermont Foot in the France: Ligue 2 on 2026-05-02, with 25% for the draw and 21% for Clermont Foot. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Over 23.5 fouls (86%), Over 1.5 (80%).
Results analysis
Montpellier finished 1-2 against Clermont Foot (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 54% home win, 25% draw and 21% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Over 23.5 fouls (86%), Over 1.5 (80%), Over 2.5 cards (78%), Under 5.5 cards (76%), Over 25.5 fouls (75%). Missed: Under 11.5 corners (78%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Montpellier win✗ Miss
54.0%
Avg Implied 54.8% · @ 1.67
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.64
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Clermont Foot win✓ Hit
21.0%
Avg Implied 20.0% · @ 4.57
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Montpellier
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.87
1.67
1.13
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.46
0.71
2.00
1.00
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Clermont Foot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clermont Foot
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
1.07
1.20
1.13
1.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.41
1.27
1.18
1.09
1.64
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.7%
@ 1.89+6.5%
Under 2.5
44.3%
@ 1.83-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.1%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.0%
1-2 ✓
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
Montpellier goals ↓
Clermont Foot goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.8%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
1
8.9%
12%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.6%
6.0%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.6%
2.8%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Montpellier goals (down), columns = Clermont Foot goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Le Mans
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.75
Red Star
1.67
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Bastia
0.82
Amiens
0.75
Rouen
0.50
Montpellier is 0.42 points better than Clermont Foot in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estac Troyes
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
Le Mans
1.39
Red Star
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Amiens
1.14
Clermont Foot
1.11
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Bastia
0.76
Rouen
0.50
Montpellier is 0.08 goals better than Clermont Foot in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Le Mans
0.86
Montpellier
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.94
Rouen
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Bastia
1.26
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
PAU
1.81
Amiens
1.92
Montpellier is 0.39 goals better than Clermont Foot in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
Estac Troyes
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Bastia
50%
Le Mans
49%
Amiens
47%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Rouen
43%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Montpellier is 2.1 percentage points better than Clermont Foot in terms of average possession (52% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Montpellier
For 4.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 14.4 · Total 30.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clermont Foot
For 3.8 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 15.6 · Total 28.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montpellier
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.4
4.1
4.2
4.1
28.6
29.5
27.8
vs Stronger (18)
9.8
9.7
10.0
4.1
4.2
3.9
27.5
27.6
27.4
vs Similar (29)
10.1
9.4
10.9
4.3
4.4
4.2
29.6
30.9
28.3
vs Weaker (3)
6.3
6.0
7.0
3.3
3.0
4.0
26.7
28.0
24.0
% over line
50%
48%
52%
64%
56%
72%
98%
96%
100%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
36%
44%
28%
2%
4%
0%
This opponent (Clermont Foot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clermont Foot
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.2
9.2
4.0
4.5
3.6
26.8
26.7
26.9
vs Stronger (5)
8.0
7.0
8.7
3.4
4.0
3.0
25.0
24.5
25.3
vs Similar (37)
9.6
9.6
9.7
4.1
4.7
3.5
26.8
27.0
26.7
vs Weaker (8)
7.9
8.5
7.2
4.1
3.8
4.5
27.6
26.2
29.0
% over line
46%
42%
50%
58%
67%
50%
84%
88%
81%
% under line
54%
58%
50%
42%
33%
50%
16%
12%
19%
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Amiens
10.5
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.1
Montpellier
9.8
Grenoble
9.7
PAU
9.6
Nancy
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
Reims
9.3
Le Mans
9.2
Clermont Foot
9.2
Guingamp
9.1
Rouen
8.9
Bastia
8.8
Boulogne
8.6
Annecy
8.4
Dunkerque
8.4
Estac Troyes
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.3
Red Star
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
5.4
PAU
4.7
Guingamp
4.6
Boulogne
4.6
Le Mans
4.6
Annecy
4.3
Reims
4.3
Rodez
4.3
Amiens
4.2
Nancy
4.2
Laval
4.1
Montpellier
4.1
Clermont Foot
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Dunkerque
4.1
Saint Etienne
4.0
RED Star FC 93
3.7
Grenoble
3.7
Red Star
3.5
Rouen
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annecy
29.1
Nancy
29.0
Bastia
28.9
Montpellier
28.6
Guingamp
28.5
Amiens
28.5
Laval
28.3
Boulogne
28.3
Le Mans
28.1
Estac Troyes
27.6
Rouen
27.2
Clermont Foot
26.8
Red Star
26.7
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Dunkerque
26.6
Grenoble
26.3
PAU
26.1
Saint Etienne
26.1
Rodez
25.9
Reims
24.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.8%
Under 9.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.8%
Under 21.5
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Montpellier
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.42
0.75
0.58
0.42
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Clermont Foot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clermont Foot
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.40
0.40
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.77
0.45
0.55
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clermont Foot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clermont Foot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clermont Foot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
France: Ligue 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →