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Montrose vs Stenhousemuir Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Montrose
Montrose
Vs
29%
29%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Scotland: League One
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Montrose a 29% win probability against Stenhousemuir in the Scotland: League One on 2026-05-02, with 29% for the draw and 42% for Stenhousemuir. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (74%), Over 1.5 (74%), Over 21.5 fouls (71%).

Results analysis

Montrose finished 0-2 against Stenhousemuir (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 29% home win, 29% draw and 42% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (74%), Over 1.5 (74%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (71%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Montrose win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.08
Edge
+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.72
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir win✓ Hit
41.7%
Avg Implied 53.8% · @ 1.67
Edge
-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MontroseMontrose

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D11D13L54W11D10W23L13L02L22DA·HAM28/02H·KEL03/03A·INV07/03H·ALL14/03A·PET21/03H·EAS04/04H·COV07/04A·KEL11/04H·HAM18/04A·QUE25/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.831.571.931.251.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.521.811.702.001.361.64
vs Weaker (9)1.111.891.251.751.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W11D10W20W22D30W11D02L10WH·COV28/02A·HAM03/03A·QUE07/03A·PET14/03H·KEL21/03A·EAS28/03H·HAM04/04H·INV11/04A·COV18/04H·ALL25/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.772.000.640.940.88
vs Stronger (30)1.430.772.000.640.940.88
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.1%
@ 1.71-6.6%
Under 2.5
52.9%
@ 1.98+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.7%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.8%
0-2 ✓
7.7%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.1%
Montrose goals ↓
Stenhousemuir goals →
01234
09.0%9.7%7.7%3.6%1.3%
17.6%14%8.8%4.1%1.5%
25.1%7.2%5.1%2.4%0.8%
32.0%2.8%1.9%0.9%0.3%
40.6%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Montrose goals (down), columns = Stenhousemuir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Inverness CT
2.06
Stenhousemuir
1.86
Hamilton
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.50
Alloa
1.47
Clyde
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Kelty Hearts
0.81
Spartans
0.50
Forfar
0.00
Montrose is 0.69 points worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Clyde
1.75
Inverness CT
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.61
Hamilton
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Alloa
1.39
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
0.94
Kelty Hearts
0.92
Spartans
0.50
Montrose is 0.06 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
0.67
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Alloa
1.06
Hamilton
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.31
Spartans
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Kelty Hearts
1.72
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Forfar
2.50
Montrose is 1.11 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MontroseMontrose

For 4.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.3

🚩 Corners

19022514246510446424552710419611141069717A·QUEH·HAMA·KELH·COVH·EASA·PETH·ALLA·INVH·KELA·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

70411323133422234114142466472A·QUEH·HAMA·KELH·COVH·EASA·PETH·ALLA·INVH·KELA·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.7

⚠️ Fouls

36019143821151113712219141110161311161333113624193025262429A·QUEH·HAMA·KELH·COVH·EASA·PETH·ALLA·INVH·KELA·HAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

For 5.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

140713454441047411838459879814112111214H·ALLA·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

7025125516423134222675076474H·ALLA·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 28.2

⚠️ Fouls

38015911171315111810112018171819101315111124282829213835292822H·ALLA·COVH·INVH·HAMA·EASH·KELA·PETA·QUEA·HAMH·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MontroseMontrose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.58.68.43.83.83.822.421.523.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (31)8.08.08.04.14.14.223.923.624.1
vs Weaker (19)9.29.49.03.23.43.020.118.421.9
% over line30%32%28%62%60%64%56%52%60%
% under line70%68%72%38%40%36%44%48%40%
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.68.88.34.74.74.825.525.525.5
vs Stronger (47)8.68.88.54.74.64.725.725.825.6
vs Similar (1)7.0-7.03.0-3.025.0-25.0
vs Weaker (2)8.010.06.07.58.07.022.020.024.0
% over line38%36%39%70%69%71%73%68%78%
% under line62%64%61%30%31%29%27%32%22%
This opponent (Montrose) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.4
East Fife
9.7
Alloa
9.7
Clyde
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.5
Inverness CT
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.1
Forfar
8.8
Peterhead
8.8
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Queen of Sth
8.6
Montrose
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.1
Queen of Sth
4.9
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Forfar
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Alloa
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Montrose
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Inverness CT
3.5
Hamilton
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
Stenhousemuir
25.3
Forfar
24.1
Queen of Sth
23.8
East Fife
23.0
Alloa
22.6
Montrose
22.4
Kelty Hearts
22.3
Clyde
22.1
Inverness CT
21.7
Hamilton
21.0
Cove Rangers
20.9
Spartans
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
38.8%
Under 9.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.2%
Under 3.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
71.0%
Under 21.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls71.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Montrose and Stenhousemuir have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
HAM (0)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Montrose and Stenhousemuir have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Montrose and Stenhousemuir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Montrose and Stenhousemuir have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Montrose vs Stenhousemuir · H/A from MON
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26AStenhousemuir Vs MON2-2
13/12/25HMON Vs Stenhousemuir3-0
04/10/25AStenhousemuir Vs MON3-1
29/03/25AStenhousemuir Vs MON2-3
01/02/25HMON Vs Stenhousemuir0-3
16/11/24AStenhousemuir Vs MON1-0
14/09/24HMON Vs Stenhousemuir3-0
23/03/19HMON Vs Stenhousemuir2-0

MontroseMontrose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AQueen of Sth Vs MON2-2
18/04/26HMON Vs Hamilton0-2
11/04/26AKelty Hearts Vs MON3-1
07/04/26HMON Vs Cove Rangers2-3
04/04/26HMON Vs East Fife1-0
21/03/26APeterhead Vs MON1-1
14/03/26HMON Vs Alloa5-4
07/03/26AInverness CT Vs MON3-1
03/03/26HMON Vs Kelty Hearts1-1
28/02/26AHamilton Vs MON1-1

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HSTE Vs Alloa1-0
18/04/26ACove Rangers Vs STE2-0
11/04/26HSTE Vs Inverness CT1-1
04/04/26HSTE Vs Hamilton3-0
28/03/26AEast Fife Vs STE2-2
21/03/26HSTE Vs Kelty Hearts2-0
14/03/26APeterhead Vs STE0-1
07/03/26AQueen of Sth Vs STE1-1
03/03/26AHamilton Vs STE0-1
28/02/26HSTE Vs Cove Rangers1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Montrose
Montrose
Scotland: League One
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD1.14
HomeDWWLL1.28
AwayDLDLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals3.163.283.04
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %40%36%44%
Scored1.341.361.32
Conceded1.821.921.72
BTTS66%56%76%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners8.468.568.36
Cards3.783.803.76
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
Scotland: League One
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.64
HomeWWWDW1.85
AwayWDWDL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals2.382.582.17
Over 1.5 %70%73%67%
Over 2.5 %42%50%33%
Over 3.5 %28%35%21%
Scored1.321.621.00
Conceded1.060.961.17
BTTS46%54%38%
Clean Sheet42%46%38%
Corners8.588.848.30
Cards4.944.924.96

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Inverness CTInverness CT3674
58%
2.1
6024+36
2.3
72%
39%
25%
9.1
39%
3.5
47%
22.2
53%
0
0001.70.7
-
2StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3667
50%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
64%
33%
22%
8.6
39%
5.2
81%
27.0
81%
0
0001.40.8
-
3
H
Hamilton		3655
44%
1.5
5442+12
2.7
75%
58%
33%
9.7
44%
3.2
42%
20.4
39%
0
0001.51.2
-
4
QO
Queen of Sth		3654
39%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
92%
53%
33%
8.9
33%
5.2
75%
24.3
67%
0
0001.61.3
-
5
A
Alloa		3653
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
67%
44%
22%
9.4
42%
4.5
61%
23.4
64%
0
0001.41.1
-
6PeterheadPeterhead3643
33%
1.2
4864-16
3.1
92%
67%
42%
9.5
44%
5.0
78%
27.9
86%
0
0001.31.8
-
7MontroseMontrose3642
31%
1.2
4867-19
3.2
89%
61%
39%
8.6
31%
3.7
61%
23.7
69%
0
0001.31.9
-
8Cove RangersCove Rangers3638
25%
1.1
4144-3
2.4
69%
39%
22%
9.4
44%
3.5
47%
22.3
53%
0
0001.11.2
-
9East FifeEast Fife3636
25%
1.0
3461-27
2.6
78%
50%
22%
9.6
47%
3.4
50%
22.8
56%
0
0000.91.7
-
10Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3629
17%
0.8
3362-29
2.6
86%
50%
22%
9.4
42%
4.7
75%
23.8
61%
1
1000.91.7
-
11Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical410
75%
2.5
106+4
4.0
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.5
-
12ClydeClyde45
25%
1.2
76+1
3.2
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
13SpartansSpartans21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
14ForfarForfar20
0%
0.0
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
Scotland: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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