This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Aves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.63
1.47
1.20
1.00
2.07
vs Stronger (19)
0.79
1.63
1.00
1.22
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (11)
2.00
1.64
2.17
1.17
1.80
2.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0 ✓
10.9%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.2%
Moreirense goals ↓
Aves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.5%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.2%
5.1%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = Aves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Moreirense is 0.47 points better than Aves in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Moreirense is 0.12 goals better than Aves in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Moreirense is 0.15 goals better than Aves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 6.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.2 · Against 15.5 · Total 33.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Aves
For 6.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 13.9 · Total 31.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.2
9.4
5.0
5.4
4.6
32.0
34.0
30.1
vs Stronger (13)
11.2
10.0
12.1
4.9
4.8
5.0
30.8
34.8
27.9
vs Similar (18)
9.9
11.4
8.4
4.7
5.1
4.2
28.2
30.4
25.9
vs Weaker (19)
10.1
11.6
8.3
5.4
6.0
4.8
36.5
36.8
36.1
% over line
53%
67%
40%
66%
68%
64%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
47%
33%
60%
34%
32%
36%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Aves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
10.5
10.8
10.2
4.7
5.0
4.3
31.9
32.3
31.5
vs Stronger (30)
10.9
11.0
10.7
4.4
4.8
3.8
31.8
31.9
31.7
vs Similar (19)
10.0
10.5
9.6
5.1
5.2
5.0
32.0
33.0
31.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
60%
62%
69%
72%
67%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
39%
40%
38%
31%
28%
33%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Santa Clara
12.2
Sporting CP
11.1
Chaves
11.0
Boavista
10.9
Benfica
10.8
Tondela
10.8
Feirense
10.6
Aves
10.5
Guimaraes
10.5
FC Porto
10.3
Moreirense
10.3
Rio Ave
10.2
SC Braga
10.2
Portimonense
9.8
Belenenses
9.7
Maritimo
9.4
Setubal
9.2
Nacional
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
5.9
Boavista
5.8
Feirense
5.6
Santa Clara
5.3
Sporting CP
5.3
Setubal
5.2
Nacional
5.2
Moreirense
5.1
Tondela
5.1
Benfica
4.9
FC Porto
4.8
Maritimo
4.8
Portimonense
4.8
Aves
4.7
SC Braga
4.6
Belenenses
4.6
Chaves
4.5
Guimaraes
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
36.8
Feirense
35.8
Rio Ave
34.2
Boavista
33.6
Tondela
32.3
Santa Clara
32.2
Guimaraes
32.1
Moreirense
32.0
Nacional
32.0
FC Porto
31.9
Aves
31.9
Maritimo
31.7
SC Braga
31.4
Belenenses
31.3
Portimonense
31.2
Chaves
31.1
Sporting CP
30.9
Benfica
30.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.8%
Under 9.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
78.8%
Under 3.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.2%
Under 21.5
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.33
0.60
0.20
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.30
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Aves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.87
0.53
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (19)
0.42
0.74
0.56
0.78
0.30
0.70
vs Similar (11)
1.36
0.45
1.33
0.17
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.53
0.67
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.88
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.92
0.60
0.60
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.80
0.62
0.62
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Aves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
0.89
0.44
0.44
0.30
1.30
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.18
0.83
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
Feirense