The model favours an away win, with Benfica expected to triumph 58% of the time, a draw 27%, and a home win 15%. The average goal tally sits at 2.3, so a two-goal match is most likely, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-1 for Benfica, with a 15.2% chance. Moreirense, playing at home against a stronger side, averages one goal scored and two conceded, while Benfica, on the road to a weaker opponent, scores 1.75 and concedes only 0.67. Recent form hints at a shift: Moreirense are coming off a win, whereas Benfica are on a four-game winning streak. The model’s selections include a very high probability for over 19.5 fouls (99.2%), over 21.5 fouls (97.7%), over 23.5 fouls (94.6%), over 2.5 cards (92.8%), over 25.5 fouls (88.9%), over 3.5 cards (82.8%), under 3.5 (80.5%) and over 8.5 corners (75.8%). Each pick is listed with its exact percentage, and no other outcome is given a win probability.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Benfica secured a 0-4 victory over Moreirense, extending their four-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite was an away win, assigned a 58% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The most likely scoreline of 0-1 fell short, but the 0-2 outcome, with a 12.9% chance, came through. The suggested selections performed admirably: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 99.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.7%, Over 23.5 fouls at 94.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 92.8%, Over 25.5 fouls at 88.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 82.8%, Under 3.5 missed at 80.5%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 75.8%. The final score matched the model’s overall expectation of an away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Moreirense win✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Benfica win✓ Hit
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.23
1.21
0.93
1.06
1.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.86
1.00
2.00
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
3.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
0.93
3.07
1.13
1.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.83
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.71
0.96
3.67
1.25
1.75
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.7%
Under 2.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.5%
Under 3.5
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.7%
No
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.2%
0-2
12.9%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
11.4%
1-2
8.9%
0-3
6.8%
1-0
6.0%
1-3
4.7%
Moreirense goals ↓
Benfica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
15%
13%
6.8%
2.7%
1
6.0%
12%
8.9%
4.7%
1.9%
2
2.4%
3.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
3
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = Benfica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Moreirense is 1.03 points worse than Benfica in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 2.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Moreirense is 1.88 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 3.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Moreirense is 0.38 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 5.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 16.3 · Total 31.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
For 6.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 15.0 · Total 31.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
11.1
9.2
5.0
5.5
4.6
32.0
32.3
31.6
vs Stronger (11)
10.5
10.0
10.7
5.3
5.2
5.3
28.6
29.8
28.0
vs Similar (20)
10.0
11.5
8.5
4.6
5.0
4.2
30.4
30.2
30.6
vs Weaker (19)
10.1
11.1
8.8
5.4
6.0
4.5
35.6
35.2
36.1
% over line
50%
60%
40%
64%
68%
60%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
36%
32%
40%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.2
10.0
5.1
4.8
5.5
30.2
30.6
29.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
10.2
10.8
9.8
7.0
7.5
6.5
34.0
34.8
33.2
vs Weaker (42)
10.7
11.3
10.0
4.8
4.2
5.3
29.5
29.8
29.2
% over line
56%
64%
48%
86%
76%
96%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
44%
36%
52%
14%
24%
4%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Santa Clara
11.7
Sporting CP
11.5
Tondela
11.4
Boavista
11.1
Chaves
11.0
Aves
10.9
Benfica
10.6
Guimaraes
10.6
Rio Ave
10.6
Feirense
10.3
SC Braga
10.2
FC Porto
10.2
Moreirense
10.1
Portimonense
10.0
Setubal
9.8
Nacional
9.6
Maritimo
9.6
Belenenses
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
6.3
Sporting CP
5.9
Boavista
5.9
Setubal
5.8
Feirense
5.3
Benfica
5.1
Nacional
5.1
Tondela
5.1
Santa Clara
5.1
Maritimo
5.1
Moreirense
5.0
Portimonense
5.0
Chaves
5.0
Aves
4.8
FC Porto
4.6
SC Braga
4.6
Belenenses
4.4
Guimaraes
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
37.6
Feirense
36.9
Rio Ave
35.2
Boavista
34.6
Tondela
33.0
Guimaraes
32.7
Aves
32.6
FC Porto
32.2
Santa Clara
32.1
Nacional
32.0
Moreirense
32.0
Portimonense
32.0
Sporting CP
31.7
Maritimo
31.7
Chaves
31.6
SC Braga
31.4
Belenenses
30.9
Benfica
30.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.8%
Under 9.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.8%
Under 3.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.7%
Under 21.5
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.57
0.36
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
0.50
0.50
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.67
0.17
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.20
0.53
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.21
0.54
1.50
0.67
0.92
0.42
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.64
0.57
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.69
0.83
0.33
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.70
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.43
1.87
0.60
0.87
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (24)
1.50
0.42
2.17
0.58
0.83
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Benfica · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis100%
Gianluca Prestianni67%
Clément Lenglet33%
Rafa Silva33%
Jhon Durán33%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tomás Araújo33%
Georgiy Sudakov33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Vangelis Pavlidis0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Gianluca Prestianni0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Bah33%
Leandro Barreiro33%
Vangelis Pavlidis33%
Enzo Barrenechea33%
Tomás Araújo33%
Gianluca Prestianni33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Prestianni100%
Vangelis Pavlidis67%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
Moreirense's squad is €335m less valuable than Benfica's (€22m vs €357m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
Moreirense's attack is €167m less valuable than Benfica's (€5m vs €172m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
Moreirense's midfield is €68m less valuable than Benfica's (€8m vs €77m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
Moreirense's defence is €99m less valuable than Benfica's (€9m vs €108m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
Feirense