This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.46
1.08
1.43
1.00
1.50
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.20
1.40
1.20
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
8% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
0-0 ✓
5.5%
Moreirense goals ↓
Estrela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
4.6%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
1
7.1%
11%
6.7%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.6%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.6%
5.9%
3.8%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.1%
2.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = Estrela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Moreirense is 0.47 points better than Estrela in terms of average points per game (2.32 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Moreirense is 0.65 goals better than Estrela in terms of goals scored per game (2.26 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Moreirense is 0.09 goals worse than Estrela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Moreirense is 0.8 percentage points worse than Estrela in terms of average possession (53% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 4.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 13.9 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estrela
For 5.7 · Against 8.0 · Total 13.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 15.3 · Total 30.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.3
5.5
5.8
5.2
29.0
29.4
28.7
vs Stronger (9)
9.3
8.2
10.2
7.2
9.0
5.8
29.6
32.0
27.6
vs Similar (30)
10.0
10.1
10.0
5.7
5.4
6.1
28.9
29.0
28.8
vs Weaker (11)
9.5
7.0
12.0
3.5
4.5
3.0
28.8
27.3
30.3
% over line
59%
50%
67%
76%
79%
73%
98%
100%
95%
% under line
41%
50%
33%
24%
21%
27%
2%
0%
5%
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
13.7
14.0
13.0
1.4
1.7
1.0
30.3
28.5
34.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
15.0
15.0
-
0.5
1.0
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
vs Weaker (3)
13.0
13.0
13.0
4.3
3.5
6.0
32.0
30.0
34.0
% over line
100%
100%
100%
23%
29%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
77%
71%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
13.7
SC Covilha
11.8
FC Porto B
11.8
Leixoes
11.8
Academico Viseu
11.8
Trofense
11.5
Oliveirense
11.4
Nacional
11.0
Farense
10.8
Belenenses
10.4
Moreirense
10.1
Feirense
10.0
Torreense
9.8
Tondela
9.8
Penafiel
9.2
Benfica B
8.6
Vilafranquense
8.2
Mafra
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torreense
7.8
Oliveirense
7.2
Vilafranquense
7.2
Academico Viseu
6.8
Moreirense
6.6
Trofense
6.5
Leixoes
6.4
Benfica B
6.4
Penafiel
6.2
Belenenses
6.2
FC Porto B
6.2
Mafra
6.2
Tondela
6.0
SC Covilha
6.0
Estrela
6.0
Farense
5.7
Nacional
5.4
Feirense
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torreense
36.8
Feirense
35.6
Vilafranquense
34.6
Oliveirense
33.6
Penafiel
33.5
Farense
33.0
FC Porto B
32.2
Nacional
31.4
Belenenses
30.9
Trofense
30.8
Leixoes
30.6
Mafra
30.6
Estrela
30.3
Tondela
30.1
Moreirense
28.9
SC Covilha
27.0
Academico Viseu
27.0
Benfica B
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.2%
Under 9.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
91.4%
Under 3.5
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.8%
Under 21.5
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.20
0.73
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.72
1.30
0.50
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
1.67
1.00
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.23
0.71
0.29
0.67
0.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.56
0.60
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.75
1.33
0.33
1.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.85
0.71
0.71
0.83
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Estrela · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leandro Antonetti100%
Abraham Marcus67%
Ianis Stoica33%
Bénito33%
Rafa Soares0%
Luan Patrick0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Eddy Doué0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eddy Doué67%
Luan Patrick33%
Leandro Antonetti33%
Bénito33%
Rafa Soares0%
Ianis Stoica0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rafa Soares33%
Ianis Stoica33%
Robinho33%
Eddy Doué33%
Luan Patrick0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Max Scholze0%
Bénito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Antonetti67%
Rafa Soares0%
Ianis Stoica0%
Luan Patrick0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Bénito0%
Eddy Doué0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
OLI (7)
€1m
Moreirense's squad is €2m more valuable than Estrela's (€22m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Moreirense's attack is €1m less valuable than Estrela's (€5m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
MOR (8)
€8m
FPB (6)
€7m
NAC (8)
€5m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Moreirense's midfield is €6m more valuable than Estrela's (€8m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
EST (11)
€11m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
Moreirense's defence is €2m less valuable than Estrela's (€9m vs €11m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Farense
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Mafra
Feirense
Vilafranquense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Tondela
Leixoes
Penafiel
Nacional
Benfica B
Belenenses
Trofense
SC Covilha
Vilaverdense