This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.93
2.60
0.87
1.80
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.71
2.75
1.25
0.33
2.33
vs Weaker (23)
2.35
0.70
2.55
0.73
2.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
7.6%
2-1 ✓
7.4%
0-2
7.3%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
5.6%
Moreirense goals ↓
FC Porto goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
8.4%
7.3%
3.7%
1.4%
1
6.7%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.9%
7.4%
5.6%
2.8%
1.1%
3
2.0%
3.1%
2.3%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = FC Porto goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.71
Sporting CP
2.43
Rebordosa
2.40
Alverca
2.33
Santa Clara
2.33
Anadia
2.33
SC Braga
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
Amarante
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
Moura
2.00
Varzim
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Torreense
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Chaves
2.00
Operário
2.00
Leixoes
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Moreirense
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
Farense
2.00
Vila Real
1.75
Brito
1.75
Cinfães
1.75
Lusitânia
1.75
O Elvas
1.60
FC Porto
1.50
Pêro Pinheiro
1.50
Pevidem
1.50
Sertanense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Pombal
1.50
Alcains
1.50
Régua
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Aliança de Gandra
1.50
Sandinenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Atlético Arcos
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Academica
1.50
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Vieira
1.50
CF Benfica
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Guarda
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Amora
1.50
Arronches e Benfica
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Gondomar
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Caldas
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Rio Ave
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Ovarense
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Joane
1.00
Estoril
1.00
Leça
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
União de Coimbra
0.50
Estrela
0.50
Coimbrões
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Madalena
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Oliveira de Frades
0.00
Maia Lidador
0.00
Pedras Salgadas
0.00
Velense
0.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
0.00
Cardielense
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Portel
0.00
Monção
0.00
Ginásio Figueirense
0.00
Estarreja
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Nacional
0.00
Vizela
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Resende (Portugal)
0.00
Juventude Gaula
0.00
Tocha
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Praia Milfontes
0.00
Fabril Barreiro
0.00
Lagos
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
0.00
Vila Cortez
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Vieirense
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Gavionenses
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
Feirense
0.00
São Roque (Açores)
0.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
0.00
FC Barreirense
0.00
Ferreiras
0.00
Dumiense
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Boavista
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Trofense
0.00
O Grandolense
0.00
Abrantes e Benfica
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
Moreirense is 0.50 points better than FC Porto in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estarreja
4.00
Benfica
3.29
Comércio Indústria
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Amarante
3.00
Alverca
2.67
Anadia
2.67
Alcains
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
CF Benfica
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Guarda
2.50
Vilaverdense
2.50
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
Farense
2.33
Cinfães
2.25
Sporting CP
2.14
FC Porto
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Coimbrões
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Sertanense
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
AVS
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Vila Cortez
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Leça
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
FC Barreirense
2.00
Dumiense
2.00
Moura
1.67
Varzim
1.67
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
SC Braga
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Pombal
1.50
Régua
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Arronches e Benfica
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
Machico
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Moreirense
1.33
GIL Vicente
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
O Elvas
1.20
Tirsense
1.14
Ovarense
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Maia Lidador
1.00
Pevidem
1.00
Velense
1.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
1.00
Cardielense
1.00
Monção
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Tondela
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Tocha
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Operário
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Fabril Barreiro
1.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
1.00
Aliança de Gandra
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Sandinenses
1.00
Atlético Arcos
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Vieirense
1.00
Academica
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Vieira
1.00
São Roque (Açores)
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
União de Coimbra
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Vila Real
0.75
Brito
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Pêro Pinheiro
0.50
Amora
0.50
Gondomar
0.50
Estrela
0.50
Sacavenense
0.00
Madalena
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Oliveira de Frades
0.00
Pedras Salgadas
0.00
Portel
0.00
Ginásio Figueirense
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Resende (Portugal)
0.00
Juventude Gaula
0.00
Joane
0.00
Praia Milfontes
0.00
Lagos
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Estoril
0.00
Gavionenses
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
0.00
Ferreiras
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Boavista
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Trofense
0.00
O Grandolense
0.00
Abrantes e Benfica
0.00
Moreirense is 0.67 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Marinhense
0.00
Joane
0.00
Operário
0.00
Estoril
0.00
Fátima
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Benfica
0.29
Santa Clara
0.33
Atlético CP
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Alpendorada
0.50
Brito
0.50
Academica
0.50
FC Serpa
0.50
Arronches e Benfica
0.50
Gondomar
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
FC Porto
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Moura
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Portel
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Torreense
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Arouca
1.00
Aliança de Gandra
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Louletano
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
Anadia
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Vieira
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Machico
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Alverca
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Pêro Pinheiro
1.50
Pevidem
1.50
AVS
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
Alcains
1.50
Régua
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Sandinenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
Atlético Arcos
1.50
Rio Ave
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Madalena
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Maia Lidador
2.00
Pedras Salgadas
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Sertanense
2.00
Velense
2.00
Cardielense
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Monção
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Fabril Barreiro
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
Leça
2.00
São Roque (Açores)
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Amarante
2.00
União de Coimbra
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Farense
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Abrantes e Benfica
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Pombal
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Guarda
2.50
Amora
2.50
Vilaverdense
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Coimbrões
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Oliveira de Frades
3.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
3.00
Resende (Portugal)
3.00
Juventude Gaula
3.00
Lagos
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Gavionenses
3.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
3.00
FC Barreirense
3.00
Ferreiras
3.00
Dumiense
3.00
Trofense
3.00
O Grandolense
3.00
CF Benfica
3.50
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Vizela
4.00
Tocha
4.00
Vila Cortez
4.00
Vieirense
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Estrela
4.00
Ginásio Figueirense
5.00
Estarreja
5.00
Praia Milfontes
5.00
Valpaços
5.00
Moreirense and FC Porto are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 3.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 16.9 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto
For 5.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 8.5 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.7
8.9
4.6
4.2
5.0
28.1
27.0
29.1
vs Stronger (10)
8.8
10.0
7.6
4.8
6.0
3.6
26.0
27.2
24.8
vs Similar (32)
9.4
9.3
9.5
4.6
3.7
5.4
29.0
27.7
30.2
vs Weaker (8)
9.4
10.8
8.0
4.2
3.5
5.0
27.1
24.0
30.2
% over line
35%
33%
36%
62%
54%
69%
84%
79%
88%
% under line
65%
67%
64%
38%
46%
31%
16%
21%
12%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.9
9.2
6.1
6.0
6.2
27.8
26.8
28.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
8.3
10.0
6.2
5.8
5.3
6.4
28.1
24.8
32.0
vs Weaker (39)
10.7
11.2
10.1
6.2
6.2
6.2
27.7
27.4
28.1
% over line
61%
65%
57%
82%
85%
79%
84%
81%
87%
% under line
39%
35%
43%
18%
15%
21%
16%
19%
13%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.7
Nacional
11.5
Guimaraes
11.5
Feirense
11.2
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
10.9
AVS
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Portimonense
10.8
Estrela
10.7
Rio Ave
10.7
Benfica
10.6
Estoril
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Torreense
10.5
Penafiel
10.4
União de Leiria
10.3
Academico Viseu
10.2
Chaves
10.2
FC Porto
10.2
Arouca
10.0
Mafra
10.0
SC Braga
9.9
Casa Pia
9.9
Famalicao
9.9
Vizela
9.8
Leixoes
9.8
Pacos Ferreira
9.7
Maritimo
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Boavista
9.3
Moreirense
9.3
Sporting CP
8.9
GIL Vicente
8.8
Santa Clara
8.6
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
FC Porto
6.3
Santa Clara
6.3
Famalicao
6.1
Boavista
6.0
Guimaraes
5.9
Chaves
5.8
Maritimo
5.8
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Arouca
5.6
Oliveirense
5.5
Estoril
5.4
SC Covilha
5.4
Rio Ave
5.4
AVS
5.4
Penafiel
5.4
Leixoes
5.3
Portimonense
5.3
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Nacional
5.2
União de Leiria
5.2
Vizela
5.1
SC Braga
5.0
Tondela
5.0
Torreense
5.0
Estrela
4.9
Moreirense
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
Farense
4.7
Benfica
4.7
Feirense
4.7
Sporting CP
4.7
GIL Vicente
4.7
Academico Viseu
4.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
4.5
Casa Pia
4.4
Mafra
4.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
30.8
Pacos Ferreira
29.6
Rio Ave
29.3
Santa Clara
29.1
Vilaverdense
28.5
Leixoes
28.3
SC Covilha
28.2
Moreirense
28.0
Boavista
27.9
FC Porto
27.8
Nacional
27.6
Guimaraes
27.2
Chaves
27.2
Maritimo
27.1
Farense
26.9
Casa Pia
26.7
AVS
26.6
Oliveirense
26.6
Vizela
26.4
GIL Vicente
26.4
Arouca
26.3
Estoril
26.2
Estrela
26.1
Portimonense
25.9
Tondela
25.7
Penafiel
25.6
Torreense
25.1
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Feirense
24.8
União de Leiria
24.5
SC Braga
24.3
Mafra
24.2
Sporting CP
24.0
Academico Viseu
23.6
Benfica
22.0
Alverca
12.9
Felgueiras 1932
11.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.3%
Under 9.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.6%
Under 3.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
73.0%
Under 21.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Moreirense or Draw✓ Hit
57.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
28%
42%
covers Moreirense + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moreirense or FC Porto✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
28%
42%
covers Moreirense + FC Porto
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Porto✗ Miss
70.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
28%
42%
covers Draw + FC Porto
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Moreirense over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.0%
Under
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Moreirense, so a minus line means Moreirense give that many goals of a start and FC Porto receive them. At -1, Moreirense must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Moreirense win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Moreirense)Actual: FC Porto
Moreirense -2
4.3%
Draw -2
8.8%
FC Porto +2
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Moreirense)Actual: Draw
Moreirense -1
13.1%
Draw -1
16.8%
FC Porto +1
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Moreirense)Actual: Moreirense
Moreirense +1
57.5%
Draw +1
20.8%
FC Porto -1
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Moreirense)Actual: Moreirense
Moreirense +2
78.4%
Draw +2
13.1%
FC Porto -2
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.29
0.64
0.27
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.00
0.47
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.57
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
0.91
0.39
0.82
0.45
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.52
0.64
0.36
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.50
1.60
0.40
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.14
1.25
0.75
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.43
0.30
1.73
0.27
1.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yan Maranhão38%
Gabrielzinho17%
Guilherme Schettine17%
Luís Asué16%
Alan16%
Cedric Teguia15%
Bernardo Martins13%
Madson de Souza Silva11%
Joel Jorquera8%
Ivo Rodrigues8%
Dinis Pinto7%
Lawrence Ofori4%
Maracás3%
Rúben Ramos Ismael3%
Sidnei Tavares3%
Godfried Frimpong3%
Marcelo3%
Kewin0%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Jeremy Antonisse0%
Fabiano Silva0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Leonardo Buta0%
Michel Augusto0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Pedro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Michel Augusto40%
Dinis Pinto30%
Leonardo Buta29%
Yan Maranhão25%
Sidnei Tavares24%
Bernardo Martins23%
Marcelo21%
Maracás21%
Rúben Ramos Ismael21%
Godfried Frimpong20%
Gilberto Batista20%
Alan19%
Pedro Santos19%
Fabiano Silva18%
Ivo Rodrigues15%
Kewin14%
Guilherme Schettine13%
Cedric Teguia8%
Jeremy Antonisse7%
Gabrielzinho6%
Madson de Souza Silva5%
Lawrence Ofori4%
Luís Asué3%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan19%
Guilherme Schettine13%
Godfried Frimpong10%
Bernardo Martins10%
Luís Asué10%
Ivo Rodrigues8%
Cedric Teguia8%
Gabrielzinho6%
Madson de Souza Silva5%
Lawrence Ofori4%
Dinis Pinto4%
Maracás3%
Rúben Ramos Ismael3%
Sidnei Tavares3%
Kewin0%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Marcelo0%
Jeremy Antonisse0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Fabiano Silva0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Leonardo Buta0%
Yan Maranhão0%
Michel Augusto0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Pedro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luís Asué23%
Guilherme Schettine17%
Madson de Souza Silva11%
Alan10%
Cedric Teguia8%
Gabrielzinho6%
Dinis Pinto4%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Maracás0%
Kewin0%
Carlos Ponck0%
Caio0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
Godfried Frimpong0%
Bernardo Martins0%
Marcelo0%
Rúben Ramos Ismael0%
Jeremy Antonisse0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Fabiano Silva0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Sidnei Tavares0%
Leonardo Buta0%
Yan Maranhão0%
Michel Augusto0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Pedro Santos0%
FC Porto
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samu Omorodion48%
Rodrigo Mora31%
Wenderson Galeno30%
Nico González24%
Iván Jaime15%
Fábio Vieira14%
Francisco Moura11%
Danny Namaso11%
Pepê10%
Deniz Gül10%
Iván Marcano9%
Otávio8%
Tiago Djaló7%
Gonçalo Borges6%
André Franco5%
Nehuén Pérez3%
Stephen Eustaquio3%
Diogo Costa0%
Fran Navarro0%
Marko Grujić0%
Cláudio Ramos0%
João Mário0%
Zé Pedro0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Alan Varela0%
Vasco Sousa0%
Martim Fernandes0%
Tomás Pérez0%
William Gomes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nehuén Pérez40%
Nico González40%
Cláudio Ramos33%
Otávio31%
Tomás Pérez29%
Alan Varela25%
Fábio Vieira22%
Gonçalo Borges21%
Stephen Eustaquio21%
Tiago Djaló20%
André Franco20%
João Mário17%
Martim Fernandes16%
Samu Omorodion15%
Wenderson Galeno15%
Danny Namaso14%
Zé Pedro12%
Pepê12%
Francisco Moura11%
William Gomes11%
Rodrigo Mora10%
Iván Jaime8%
Vasco Sousa7%
Deniz Gül5%
Diogo Costa0%
Iván Marcano0%
Fran Navarro0%
Marko Grujić0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Francisco Moura25%
Nico González20%
Fábio Vieira14%
João Mário14%
Rodrigo Mora14%
Martim Fernandes13%
Pepê10%
Gonçalo Borges9%
Iván Jaime8%
Samu Omorodion8%
Nehuén Pérez6%
Alan Varela5%
Wenderson Galeno4%
Danny Namaso3%
Stephen Eustaquio3%
Diogo Costa0%
Iván Marcano0%
Fran Navarro0%
Tiago Djaló0%
Marko Grujić0%
Cláudio Ramos0%
Zé Pedro0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
André Franco0%
Otávio0%
Vasco Sousa0%
Deniz Gül0%
Tomás Pérez0%
William Gomes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samu Omorodion35%
Wenderson Galeno26%
Iván Jaime15%
Fábio Vieira14%
Nico González12%
Danny Namaso8%
Vasco Sousa7%
Rodrigo Mora7%
Gonçalo Borges6%
Pepê5%
João Mário3%
Francisco Moura3%
Alan Varela2%
Nehuén Pérez0%
Diogo Costa0%
Iván Marcano0%
Fran Navarro0%
Tiago Djaló0%
Marko Grujić0%
Stephen Eustaquio0%
Cláudio Ramos0%
Zé Pedro0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
André Franco0%
Otávio0%
Martim Fernandes0%
Deniz Gül0%
Tomás Pérez0%
William Gomes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AMA (6)
€1m
Moreirense's squad is €445m less valuable than FC Porto's (€22m vs €467m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Moreirense's attack is €210m less valuable than FC Porto's (€5m vs €214m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Moreirense's midfield is €96m less valuable than FC Porto's (€8m vs €105m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Moreirense's defence is €138m less valuable than FC Porto's (€9m vs €148m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Estoril
Casa Pia
Arouca
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Nacional
AVS
Estrela
Farense
Boavista
Vizela