Moreirense vs Maritimo Result & Analysis

Moreirense are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 52% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Marítimo win. The model’s pick is a home win and the expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most likely total of 2 goals (28% probability). The single most probable scoreline is 1-0, a 13.8% chance that Moreirense will edge the game by a single goal. Moreirense’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Marítimo’s away record is 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 94.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 89.2%, Over 25.5 fouls at 89.2%, Under 3.5 at 80.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 76.4% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.4%. Moreirense’s recent form, a win over Casa Pia, and Marítimo’s recent defeat to Arouca set the stage for a tight contest.

The win for Moreirense extends their recent run, as they came off a 1-0 victory over Casa Pia. The model’s pre-match favourite, a home win at 52% probability, proved correct, with the final score 1-0 confirming the actual result. The most likely total of 2 goals, at 28% confidence, fell short of the 1-0 outcome. The model’s selections performed impressively: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 99.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 94.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 89.2%, Over 25.5 fouls at 89.2%, Under 3.5 at 80.3%, while Over 3.5 cards at 76.4% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.4% missed. Overall, the predictions largely came through.