This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Clara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.73
2.00
2.17
1.40
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.50
2.00
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
1.60
2.33
1.67
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
18% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-1 ✓
10.7%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
6.2%
Moreirense goals ↓
Santa Clara goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.1%
2.8%
0.8%
1
9.9%
15%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.2%
7.3%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.3%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = Santa Clara goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Moreirense is 0.29 points better than Santa Clara in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Moreirense is 0.12 goals worse than Santa Clara in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Moreirense is 0.03 goals better than Santa Clara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 4.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.7 · Against 15.2 · Total 32.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Santa Clara
For 6.7 · Against 6.4 · Total 13.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 12.2 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.1
9.3
4.5
4.6
4.3
31.9
33.9
29.9
vs Stronger (14)
11.2
10.0
12.1
4.6
4.1
5.0
30.8
34.8
27.9
vs Similar (17)
9.3
11.0
7.6
4.0
4.5
3.6
27.7
29.9
25.5
vs Weaker (19)
10.2
11.9
8.4
4.8
5.1
4.6
36.6
37.0
36.1
% over line
53%
68%
39%
60%
60%
60%
96%
100%
91%
% under line
47%
32%
61%
40%
40%
40%
4%
0%
9%
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Clara
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
12.8
12.3
13.4
4.5
5.5
3.4
28.3
27.7
29.0
vs Stronger (2)
9.5
9.5
-
5.5
5.5
-
19.0
19.0
-
vs Similar (4)
13.2
14.0
13.0
4.2
8.0
3.0
27.5
34.0
25.3
vs Weaker (5)
13.8
13.7
14.0
4.4
4.7
4.0
32.6
31.3
34.5
% over line
91%
83%
100%
55%
83%
20%
82%
67%
100%
% under line
9%
17%
0%
45%
17%
80%
18%
33%
0%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Santa Clara
12.8
Sporting CP
11.1
Chaves
11.0
Tondela
10.9
Benfica
10.8
Feirense
10.8
Boavista
10.7
Aves
10.6
Guimaraes
10.4
FC Porto
10.4
SC Braga
10.3
Moreirense
10.2
Rio Ave
10.2
Portimonense
9.9
Belenenses
9.8
Maritimo
9.5
Setubal
9.2
Nacional
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
5.9
Feirense
5.6
Boavista
5.6
Sporting CP
5.2
Setubal
5.1
Tondela
5.0
Moreirense
5.0
Nacional
4.9
FC Porto
4.9
Benfica
4.8
Aves
4.8
Belenenses
4.7
SC Braga
4.6
Chaves
4.6
Portimonense
4.6
Maritimo
4.6
Santa Clara
4.5
Guimaraes
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
36.5
Feirense
35.6
Rio Ave
33.9
Boavista
33.2
Guimaraes
32.0
Tondela
31.9
Moreirense
31.9
Aves
31.7
Belenenses
31.5
SC Braga
31.4
Maritimo
31.4
FC Porto
31.3
Sporting CP
31.2
Portimonense
31.2
Nacional
30.5
Chaves
30.5
Benfica
29.8
Santa Clara
28.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
73.5%
Under 9.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.5%
Under 3.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.1%
Under 21.5
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.47
0.40
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.89
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.45
0.38
0.38
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Clara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.55
0.50
0.83
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.67
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
64% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.60
0.67
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.89
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.73
0.75
0.62
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Clara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.09
1.18
1.50
1.33
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
3.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.20
1.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Santa Clara · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gonçalo Paciência75%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Sorriso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Lopes50%
Daniel Borges33%
Emanuel Fernandes33%
Guilherme Romão25%
Pedro Pacheco25%
Sorriso25%
Gonçalo Paciência0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Calila25%
Welinton Torrao25%
Sorriso25%
Gonçalo Paciência0%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Paciência75%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Sorriso0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
Moreirense's squad is €5m less valuable than Santa Clara's (€22m vs €27m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
Moreirense's attack is €4m less valuable than Santa Clara's (€5m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
Moreirense's midfield is €3m more valuable than Santa Clara's (€8m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
Moreirense's defence is €3m less valuable than Santa Clara's (€9m vs €12m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Portimonense
Maritimo
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
Feirense