This match is expected to be a one-sided affair, with SC Braga heavily favoured to win. The away team's recent form has been impressive, having won two of their last five matches, and they're coming off a 1-0 victory over Dinamo Minsk. Moreirense, on the other hand, are struggling, having drawn and lost their last two matches.
The model predicts an away win with a 58% probability, with a 17% chance of a Moreirense win and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, occurring 11.9% of the time.
Moreirense's home form has been poor, scoring an average of 0.33 goals and conceding 2.5 goals per match against stronger opponents. SC Braga's away form has been strong, scoring 1.58 goals and conceding 1.25 goals per match against weaker opponents.
The model's selections are Over 21.5 fouls (83.3%), Over 1.5 goals (76.7% with a 5% edge), Over 3.5 cards (71%), and Under 3.5 (70.9%). The home win percentage is 17%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 58%.
In a stunning upset, Moreirense drew with SC Braga 2-2, spoiling the pre-match favourite's chances. SC Braga were the model's selection, with a pre-match probability of 59% to win. However, the model's call was incorrect, as Moreirense's recent form, including a draw against SC Braga, hinted at a possible draw. The model's selection of SC Braga to win did not come through. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed well, with "Over 21.5 fouls" (83.3%), "Over 1.5" (75.1%), and "Over 3.5 cards" (71.0%) all hitting, while "Under 3.5" (72.7%) missed.
Moreirense| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.53 | 0.93 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 2.75 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.18 | 1.09 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
SC Braga| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.13 | 2.19 | 0.94 | 1.57 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.86 | 1.29 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.95 | 0.89 | 2.44 | 0.78 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| SC Braga goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.2% | 12% | 12% | 6.9% | 3.1% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 12% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| 2 | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Moreirense
SC Braga
Moreirense| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.1 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 29.4 | 29.1 | 29.8 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 9.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 27.8 | 28.0 | 27.6 |
| vs Similar (37) | 7.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 30.0 | 29.3 | 30.7 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 30.0 | 30.0 | - |
| % over line | 31% | 32% | 29% | 68% | 64% | 72% | 96% | 92% | 100% |
| % under line | 69% | 68% | 71% | 32% | 36% | 28% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
SC Braga| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 24.2 | 23.9 | 24.4 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 26.0 | 26.7 | 25.3 |
| vs Similar (13) | 8.2 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 25.9 | 25.1 | 26.8 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 22.8 | 22.6 | 23.1 |
| % over line | 38% | 26% | 50% | 64% | 68% | 60% | 69% | 65% | 73% |
| % under line | 62% | 74% | 50% | 36% | 32% | 40% | 31% | 35% | 27% |
Moreirense| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
SC Braga| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.47 | 1.31 | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 1.11 | 0.26 | 1.44 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Moreirense| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.12 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
SC Braga| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 0.84 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75.1% | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.7% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/02/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/08/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/02/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 09/09/23 | H | 2-3 | |
| 30/01/22 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/08/21 | H | 2-3 |
Moreirense| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
SC Braga| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/07/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 07/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Porto | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 11.0 | 75% | 1.7 | 33% | 22.5 | 75% | 467 | 214 | 105 | 148 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5.2 | 0% | 4.2 | 50% | 24.0 | 50% | 414 | 146 | 91 | 176 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 62% |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 8.5 | 25% | 4.8 | 50% | 19.0 | 25% | 28 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.0 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.5 | 100% | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 48% |
| 5 | Benfica | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 25.3 | 100% | 357 | 172 | 77 | 108 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 7.7 | 0% | 4.3 | 67% | 24.7 | 100% | 29 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50% |
| 7 | Maritimo | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 7.0 | 0% | 4.5 | 50% | 26.2 | 75% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Estrela | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.7 | 67% | 23.3 | 67% | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 9 | SC Braga | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 32.0 | 100% | 165 | 41 | 56 | 68 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 63% |
| 10 | Nacional | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 8.2 | 25% | 4.2 | 50% | 25.5 | 75% | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 11 | Moreirense | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 6.3 | 0% | 5.3 | 100% | 28.3 | 67% | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 12 | Guimaraes | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 6.0 | 0% | 6.0 | 75% | 26.0 | 75% | 46 | 22 | 11 | 12 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 8.2 | 25% | 3.0 | 33% | 19.8 | 50% | 37 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 14 | Famalicao | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 28.2 | 100% | 57 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 15 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 7.2 | 25% | 4.5 | 75% | 28.8 | 100% | 16 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Alverca | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 50% | 20.8 | 75% | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.2 | 25% | 25.5 | 100% | 42 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 53% |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 2.8 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 75% | 27.0 | 100% | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 41% |