This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.47
1.20
1.40
1.33
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.62
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.41
1.29
1.14
1.50
1.60
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.40
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.3%
2-0 ✓
8.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
Moreirense goals ↓
Tondela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.3%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.2%
8.7%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.7%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moreirense goals (down), columns = Tondela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Moreirense is 0.50 points better than Tondela in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Moreirense is 0.03 goals worse than Tondela in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Moreirense is 0.29 goals better than Tondela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Moreirense
For 6.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.3 · Against 13.9 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tondela
For 6.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.7 · Against 19.5 · Total 37.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.9
9.0
5.1
5.6
4.7
32.0
33.0
31.1
vs Stronger (13)
10.5
10.3
10.7
5.4
5.5
5.3
30.6
33.7
28.0
vs Similar (18)
9.8
11.0
8.6
4.8
5.2
4.3
29.7
30.0
29.4
vs Weaker (19)
9.7
11.1
8.1
5.3
5.9
4.6
35.2
35.2
35.2
% over line
48%
60%
36%
68%
72%
64%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
52%
40%
64%
32%
28%
36%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.3
11.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
33.1
30.5
35.7
vs Stronger (15)
11.4
10.0
13.0
5.5
6.1
4.7
31.3
30.2
32.6
vs Similar (28)
10.4
9.7
11.1
5.2
4.8
5.6
33.8
30.2
37.0
vs Weaker (7)
12.1
13.0
11.0
4.6
3.5
6.0
34.0
32.0
36.7
% over line
66%
60%
72%
70%
60%
80%
94%
88%
100%
% under line
34%
40%
28%
30%
40%
20%
6%
12%
0%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Santa Clara
11.5
Sporting CP
11.2
Boavista
11.0
Benfica
11.0
Tondela
11.0
Aves
10.9
Chaves
10.8
Guimaraes
10.5
Feirense
10.4
Rio Ave
10.3
FC Porto
10.2
SC Braga
10.0
Moreirense
9.9
Portimonense
9.7
Maritimo
9.5
Setubal
9.4
Belenenses
9.4
Nacional
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
6.1
Boavista
5.9
Sporting CP
5.7
Feirense
5.7
Setubal
5.6
Tondela
5.2
Moreirense
5.1
Santa Clara
5.1
Portimonense
5.0
Maritimo
5.0
Benfica
4.9
Nacional
4.8
FC Porto
4.8
Aves
4.8
Chaves
4.6
Belenenses
4.6
SC Braga
4.5
Guimaraes
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
37.7
Feirense
36.5
Rio Ave
34.9
Boavista
34.4
Tondela
33.1
Guimaraes
32.5
Nacional
32.2
FC Porto
32.2
Maritimo
32.1
Aves
32.0
Moreirense
32.0
SC Braga
32.0
Santa Clara
31.7
Portimonense
31.6
Sporting CP
31.3
Belenenses
31.3
Chaves
31.3
Benfica
30.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
67.4%
Under 9.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
82.9%
Under 3.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
99.2%
Under 21.5
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.29
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.25
0.60
0.20
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (10)
0.30
0.30
0.43
0.29
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.53
0.60
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.88
0.71
0.57
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.33
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.71
0.64
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.88
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.92
0.80
0.40
0.71
1.29
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.70
0.71
0.57
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.80
1.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Tondela · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Pedro Henryque15%
Bebeto12%
Emmanuel Maviram10%
João Silva8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Cicero6%
Makan Aïko6%
Rodrigo Conceição5%
Jordan Siebatcheu5%
Sphephelo Sithole4%
Joe Hodge4%
Tiago Manso4%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Hugo Félix0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rémy Vita50%
Brayan Medina36%
Cicero33%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka30%
Tiago Manso25%
Miro25%
João Afonso23%
Sphephelo Sithole23%
Pedro Henryque21%
Rodrigo Conceição20%
Emmanuel Maviram20%
Christian Marques19%
Rony Lopes19%
Bebeto17%
Afonso Rodrigues14%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Joe Hodge12%
Makan Aïko11%
Juan Rodríguez10%
João Silva8%
Moudjatovic8%
Ivan Cavaleiro8%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Bernardo Fontes6%
Hélder Tavares5%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
André Ceitil0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Yarlen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Makan Aïko11%
Rony Lopes6%
Pedro Henryque6%
Cicero6%
Emmanuel Maviram5%
Brayan Medina4%
Joe Hodge4%
Hugo Félix4%
Tiago Manso4%
Jordan Siebatcheu0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Yefrei Rodriguez0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Henryque30%
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Makan Aïko6%
Juan Rodríguez3%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Cicero0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Tiago Manso0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Joe Hodge0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
Moreirense's squad is €12m more valuable than Tondela's (€22m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
Moreirense's attack is €2m more valuable than Tondela's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
Moreirense's midfield is €7m more valuable than Tondela's (€8m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
Moreirense's defence is €3m more valuable than Tondela's (€9m vs €6m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Chaves
Nacional
Feirense