This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
0.93
1.29
1.62
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.42
0.92
1.33
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.8%
@ 1.86+12.5%
Under 2.5
37.2%
@ 1.88-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.6%
Under 3.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.3%
No
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
5.4%
0-2
5.3%
1-0
5.2%
2-0
5.0%
Morton goals ↓
Ayr goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
5.4%
5.3%
2.9%
1.2%
1
5.2%
11%
8.4%
4.6%
1.9%
2
5.0%
8.2%
6.7%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.7%
4.4%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morton goals (down), columns = Ayr goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Morton is 0.13 points better than Ayr in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Morton is 0.28 goals worse than Ayr in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Morton is 0.59 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Morton
For 4.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Ayr
For 5.1 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 8.3 · Total 18.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
10.9
13.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
vs Stronger (6)
8.3
7.0
11.0
4.0
3.7
4.3
22.3
23.0
21.0
vs Similar (44)
12.9
12.2
13.8
1.2
1.3
1.1
21.3
21.0
21.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
79%
62%
100%
22%
23%
21%
29%
38%
17%
% under line
21%
38%
0%
78%
77%
79%
71%
62%
83%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.5
10.2
3.2
3.3
3.0
18.6
19.7
17.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
10.6
11.2
10.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
18.9
19.9
18.0
vs Weaker (10)
11.7
13.2
10.7
2.9
3.8
2.3
17.1
19.0
15.8
% over line
60%
67%
54%
34%
42%
27%
28%
33%
23%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
66%
58%
73%
72%
67%
77%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queens Park
11.4
Arbroath
11.3
Morton
11.1
Dunfermline
10.9
Ayr
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.7
Montrose
10.3
Raith Rvs
10.1
Inverness CT
10.1
Partick
10.0
Airdrie United
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Montrose
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.1
Morton
4.1
Dundee Utd
3.8
Arbroath
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Partick
3.4
Airdrie United
3.2
Ayr
3.2
Queens Park
3.1
Inverness CT
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.9
Dundee Utd
22.4
Morton
21.8
Arbroath
21.1
Partick
20.4
Dunfermline
19.4
Raith Rvs
19.2
Inverness CT
19.2
Ayr
18.6
Queens Park
18.4
Airdrie United
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.3%
Under 9.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.9%
Under 3.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
29.5%
Under 21.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.50
0.69
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.60
0.50
0.64
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.57
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.54
0.50
0.50
1.17
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.56
0.93
0.57
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Ayr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.36
0.79
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.88
0.42
0.83
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Morton
Dundee Utd
Partick
Raith Rovers
Airdrie United
Inverness CT
Dunfermline
Ayr Utd
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Arbroath
Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
Montrose