Morton vs Ayr Utd Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Ayr Utd, a 30% chance for Morton and a 27% chance of a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game, yet the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability. Both sides have similar form against comparable opposition: Morton averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded at home, while Ayr Utd averages 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded on the road.

The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 82.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.9% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 78.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.6%, Over 8.5 corners at 73.7% and Under 23.5 fouls at 70.2%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.

Both teams have recently drawn their last matches, each 1-1, and are coming off a draw in their recent five-game runs. The predicted outcome points to a close contest with Ayr Utd slightly ahead, but the 1-1 scoreline remains the most probable result.

The pre-match favourite, Ayr Utd, failed to deliver as the model had predicted an away win at 43%. Instead, Morton secured a 3-1 home victory, extending their streak of losses but ending a recent draw. The model’s call was incorrect. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which hit at 79.9%. The final score of 3-1 matched the home team’s win, while the model’s prediction of an away win proved wrong. Both sides had come off draws in their last matches, yet Morton turned the tide to win. The outcome confirms the model’s pick missed the mark, but its Over 1.5 selection proved accurate.