Morton’s home form shows a modest 1.43 goals per game and a 1.21 average conceded, while Ayr Utd, on the road, averages 1.64 scored and 1.79 conceded against similar opposition. The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an expected 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.6% probability, and the model’s favourite result is an away win. Home win probability sits at 30%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 46%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 86%, Under 25.5 fouls at 85.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.1%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.8%, and Over 8.5 corners at 72.9%. Both sides entered the match after a draw, each 1-1 against the other, hinting at a tightly contested but potentially open game.
Results analysis
The upset was a home win, 3-0, overturning the pre-match favourite, the away win, which the model had given a 46% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 3-0 saw Morton dominate, extending their recent run of a draw and four losses. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 86% probability, hit, as the match produced three goals. The most likely total of three goals, with a 22% chance, also materialised. The predicted 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 outcomes were missed. In short, the home side defied expectations, the model’s favourite failed, but the over-goal pick proved correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Morton win✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied 42.9% · @ 2.15
Edge
-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.40
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd win✗ Miss
46.3%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.08
Edge
+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.20
1.38
1.19
1.14
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.40
1.00
1.00
1.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.16
1.43
1.21
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayr Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.70
0.93
1.57
1.62
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.73
0.92
1.67
1.64
1.79
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.6%
@ 1.86+15.3%
Under 2.5
34.4%
@ 1.88-15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
5.7%
0-1
5.5%
0-0
4.4%
Morton goals ↓
Ayr Utd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
5.5%
6.1%
3.8%
1.8%
1
4.1%
11%
9.1%
5.7%
2.7%
2
3.8%
7.1%
6.7%
4.2%
2.0%
3
1.9%
3.5%
3.3%
2.1%
1.0%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morton goals (down), columns = Ayr Utd goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Morton is 0.13 points better than Ayr Utd in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Morton is 0.28 goals worse than Ayr Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Morton is 0.59 goals better than Ayr Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Morton
For 4.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ayr Utd
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
10.9
13.1
1.6
1.5
1.6
21.4
21.5
21.3
vs Stronger (7)
9.2
7.0
11.5
3.9
3.7
4.0
21.8
23.0
20.5
vs Similar (43)
12.9
12.2
13.8
1.2
1.3
1.1
21.3
21.0
21.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
80%
62%
100%
22%
23%
21%
27%
38%
14%
% under line
20%
38%
0%
78%
77%
79%
73%
62%
86%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayr Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queens Park
11.4
Arbroath
11.3
Morton
11.1
Dunfermline
10.9
Ayr
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.7
Montrose
10.3
Raith Rvs
10.1
Inverness CT
10.1
Partick
10.0
Airdrie United
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Montrose
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.1
Morton
4.1
Dundee Utd
3.8
Arbroath
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Partick
3.4
Airdrie United
3.2
Ayr
3.2
Queens Park
3.1
Inverness CT
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.9
Dundee Utd
22.4
Morton
21.8
Arbroath
21.1
Partick
20.4
Dunfermline
19.4
Raith Rvs
19.2
Inverness CT
19.2
Ayr
18.6
Queens Park
18.4
Airdrie United
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.2%
Under 9.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
41.6%
Under 21.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.50
0.69
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.60
0.50
0.64
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayr Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.65
0.50
0.58
1.07
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.56
0.93
0.57
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayr Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.36
1.00
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
1.08
0.42
1.08
0.57
1.07
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Morton's squad is €1m less valuable than Ayr Utd's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Morton and Ayr Utd have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Morton and Ayr Utd have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (13)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Morton and Ayr Utd have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundee Utd
Partick
Raith Rovers
Airdrie United
Inverness CT
Dunfermline
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Arbroath
Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
Montrose