PythiaFootballBETA
Jagiellonia's recent form has been impressive, with four consecutive wins, but they suffered a defeat in their last outing against Widzew Łódź. Meanwhile, Motor Lublin has been struggling, with two straight defeats in their last five matches, including a 1-3 loss to Pogon Szczecin.
The model predicts an away win for Jagiellonia, with a 46% probability, while Motor Lublin has a 26% chance of winning at home and a 28% chance of drawing. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 13.4% of the time.
Motor Lublin has averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against stronger opponents, while Jagiellonia has averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded away against weaker opponents.
The model's selections are Over 1.5 with a 74.4% probability, Under 3.5 with a 73.7% probability and a 9% edge, and Over 21.5 fouls with a 72% probability. The home win percentage is 26%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 46%.
Motor Lublin's 1-2 defeat extends their run of inconsistent form, having suffered two consecutive losses. The actual result of Away win confirms the model's call, which was correct. The model had predicted Away win with a 46% probability. The model's selection, Away win, proved correct.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 74.4%. Under 3.5 also hit, with a 73.7% probability. However, Over 21.5 fouls missed, with a 72% probability.
Motor Lublin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.75 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.68 | 1.36 | 1.73 | 1.45 | 1.64 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Jagiellonia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.12 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.35 | 1.06 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
| Jagiellonia goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.7% | 10% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 13% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Motor LublinJagielloniaMotor Lublin| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 25.6 | 24.8 | 26.4 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 9.1 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 24.6 | 23.0 | 26.6 |
| vs Similar (37) | 10.7 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 25.7 | 25.3 | 26.1 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 10.5 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 29.0 | 26.0 | 32.0 |
| % over line | 60% | 58% | 62% | 60% | 54% | 65% | 86% | 83% | 88% |
| % under line | 40% | 42% | 38% | 40% | 46% | 35% | 14% | 17% | 12% |
Jagiellonia| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 26.8 | 27.2 | 26.3 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (17) | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 27.7 | 29.9 | 24.6 |
| vs Weaker (32) | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 26.3 | 25.4 | 27.3 |
| % over line | 50% | 46% | 55% | 56% | 50% | 62% | 72% | 71% | 73% |
| % under line | 50% | 54% | 45% | 44% | 50% | 38% | 28% | 29% | 27% |
Motor Lublin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 1.12 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.68 | 1.00 | 0.64 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Jagiellonia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.71 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | -3.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.7% | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.44 | +8.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 71.4% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | +4.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 70.2% | 1.41 | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | +5.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/02/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 25/09/24 | H | 0-2 |
Motor Lublin| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Jagiellonia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Legia Warszawa | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 25% | 2.3 | 0% | 29.5 | 75% | 40 | 12 | 7 | 21 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 52% |
| 2 |  Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 9.3 | 33% | 6.3 | 67% | 27.7 | 100% | 29 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 3 |  Lech Poznan | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 25.0 | 67% | 53 | 21 | 8 | 23 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 58% |
| 4 |  Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 2.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 8.7 | 33% | 2.7 | 0% | 23.3 | 33% | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 5 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 50% | 25.0 | 67% | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 40% |
| 6 |  Wisla Krakow | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 25% | 12.5 | 75% | 4.2 | 50% | 25.0 | 75% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 8.7 | 33% | 3.7 | 33% | 26.0 | 67% | 62 | 43 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 8 |  Widzew Łódź | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 12.2 | 75% | 5.0 | 75% | 29.0 | 100% | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 9 |  Cracovia Krakow | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 22.0 | 50% | 33 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 10 |  Korona Kielce | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 11.3 | 33% | 2.0 | 0% | 32.3 | 100% | 16 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 11 |  Wisla Plock | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.3 | 67% | 4.0 | 67% | 26.7 | 100% | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 12 |  Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 23.5 | 75% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 5.8 | 0% | 4.0 | 50% | 21.5 | 50% | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 51% |
| 14 |  GKS Katowice | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.7 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 8.7 | 67% | 6.0 | 100% | 25.7 | 100% | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 15 |  Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 9.0 | 33% | 4.7 | 33% | 26.3 | 33% | 12 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | - |
| 16 |  Piast Gliwice | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 12.2 | 50% | 2.0 | 0% | 25.2 | 50% | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 56% |
| 17 |  Radomiak Radom | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 7.0 | 25% | 7.5 | 75% | 29.5 | 100% | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 51% |
| 18 |  Raków Częstochowa | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 9.3 | 33% | 2.7 | 33% | 25.0 | 100% | 48 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 54% |