Motor Lublin enter the cup tie after a 0-2 loss to Piast Gliwice, their last five results showing a slump with two defeats. Legia Warszawa, on the other hand, have gone unbeaten in five outings, keeping a clean sheet in a 1-1 draw with Śląsk Wrocław. The model therefore picks an away win with a 51% probability, followed by a draw at 26% and a home win at 22%. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% chance. Motor Lublin average home scoring is 0.8 goals and conceding 1.2 against stronger opposition, while Legia average away scoring and conceding are both 1.11 against weaker opponents. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1% with a 7% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (99.0% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (97.1% with a 7% edge), Home under 2.5 goals (94.8% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (94.0% with an 8% edge), Away +2 handicap (93.2% with a 3% edge) and Under 4.5 (91.7% with a 10% edge).
Results analysis
Motor Lublin’s win over Legia Warszawa stunned the model’s pre-match favourite, the away win, which had a 51% chance. The final score was 3-0, a home victory that the model’s prediction proved wrong. The upset followed Motor Lublin’s recent form, coming off a win, while Legia came off a defeat. The model’s selections largely held: Under 7.5, Under 6.5, Home under 3.5 goals, Under 5.5, Away under 3.5 goals, and Under 4.5 all hit, each with probabilities of 99.7%, 99.1%, 99.0%, 97.1%, 94.0% and 91.7% respectively. The Home under 2.5 goals and Away +2 handicap missed, with 94.8% and 93.2% probabilities.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Motor Lublin win✓ Hit
22.4%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.28
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.60
1xBet
4.57
Marathonbet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.69
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.96
Dafabet
3.90
Betfair
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
Legia Warszawa win✗ Miss
51.4%
Avg Implied 54.4% · @ 1.66
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.82
Dafabet
1.68
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Motor Lublin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.57
1.31
1.31
1.43
1.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
2.00
0.80
1.20
1.00
3.33
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.41
1.55
1.36
1.55
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Legia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Legia Warszawa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
1.75
0.88
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.10
1.60
0.60
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
1.05
2.00
1.00
1.11
1.11
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
@ 1.21+1.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
@ 3.84-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.68-2.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
@ 2.03+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.1%
@ 2.72-3.7%
Under 3.5
69.9%
@ 1.39+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.85
BetVictor
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Unibet
2.70
Under
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.7%
@ 1.69-0.1%
No
45.3%
@ 2.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Unibet
1.67
No
BetVictor
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.75+6.2%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.24+3.8%
0-1
9.6%@ 7.01+3.5%
0-2
9.2%@ 7.79+3.7%
0-0
7.4%@ 11.65+3.8%
2-1
6.0%@ 12.64+2.7%
1-3
5.5%@ 11.15+1.7%
1-0
5.5%@ 12.65+2.1%
Motor Lublin goals ↓
Legia Warszawa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
9.6%
9.2%
5.2%
2.2%
1
5.5%
13%
9.7%
5.5%
2.4%
2
3.5%
6.0%
5.1%
2.9%
1.3%
3
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motor Lublin goals (down), columns = Legia Warszawa goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Avia Świdnik
2.50
Korona Kielce
2.33
Polonia Bytom
2.25
Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.20
Stal Stalowa Wola
2.00
Jastrzębie
2.00
Hutnik Kraków
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.00
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
2.00
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.50
Odra Opole
1.50
Widzew Łódź
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.50
Miedz Legnica
1.50
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.33
Świt Skolwin
1.33
Lechia Gdansk
1.33
ŁKS Łódź II
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Wieczysta Kraków
1.00
Nieciecza
1.00
Polonia Warszawa
1.00
Wisla Plock
1.00
Chrobry Głogów
1.00
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Legia Warszawa
1.00
Widzew II
0.94
Chemik Bydgoszcz
0.94
Śląsk Wrocław II
0.94
Sokół Ostróda
0.94
Górnik Polkowice
0.94
Górnik Zabrze II
0.94
Luzino
0.94
Wisła Płock II
0.94
Sokół Kleczew
0.94
Kluczevia Stargard
0.94
Lechia Zielona Góra
0.94
Wigry Suwałki
0.94
Kluczbork
0.94
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.94
Podhale Nowy Targ
0.94
Unia Skierniewice
0.54
Znicz Pruszków
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.50
ŁKS Łódź
0.50
Pogon Szczecin
0.50
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.00
Resovia Rzeszów
0.00
Kalisz
0.00
Beskid
0.00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
0.00
Korona Kielce II
0.00
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
0.00
Polonia Środa
0.00
Tychy 71
0.00
Górnik Łęczna
0.00
Stal Rzeszów
0.00
Ruch Chorzów
0.00
Stal Mielec
0.00
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.00
Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa are level in average points per game (both 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
4.25
Chrobry Głogów
3.00
Avia Świdnik
2.75
Cracovia Krakow
2.50
Stal Stalowa Wola
2.00
Chojniczanka Chojnice
2.00
Nieciecza
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
2.00
Wisla Plock
2.00
Miedz Legnica
2.00
Świt Skolwin
1.67
Korona Kielce
1.67
Jastrzębie
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.50
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.50
Hutnik Kraków
1.33
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Widzew II
1.03
Chemik Bydgoszcz
1.03
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.03
Sokół Ostróda
1.03
Górnik Polkowice
1.03
Górnik Zabrze II
1.03
Luzino
1.03
Wisła Płock II
1.03
Sokół Kleczew
1.03
Kluczevia Stargard
1.03
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.03
Wigry Suwałki
1.03
Kluczbork
1.03
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.03
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.03
Resovia Rzeszów
1.00
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.00
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.00
Polonia Środa
1.00
ŁKS Łódź II
1.00
Piast Gliwice
1.00
Wisla Krakow
1.00
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
Ruch Chorzów
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Stal Mielec
1.00
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Legia Warszawa
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
0.59
Znicz Pruszków
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.50
Pogon Szczecin
0.50
Warta Poznań
0.50
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.00
Kalisz
0.00
Beskid
0.00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
0.00
Korona Kielce II
0.00
Zaglebie Lubin
0.00
Tychy 71
0.00
Motor Lublin
0.00
Wieczysta Kraków
0.00
Stal Rzeszów
0.00
Polonia Warszawa
0.00
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.00
Radomiak Radom
0.00
Motor Lublin is 1.00 goals worse than Legia Warszawa in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zaglebie Lubin
0.00
Motor Lublin
0.00
Wieczysta Kraków
0.00
Polonia Warszawa
0.00
Radomiak Radom
0.00
Hutnik Kraków
0.33
Korona Kielce
0.33
Jastrzębie
0.50
Warta Poznań
0.50
Olimpia Grudziądz
0.67
Piast Gliwice
0.67
Widzew Łódź
0.75
Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.80
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.00
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.00
Korona Kielce II
1.00
Avia Świdnik
1.00
ŁKS Łódź II
1.00
Stal Rzeszów
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Arka Gdynia
1.00
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.00
Pogon Szczecin
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Legia Warszawa
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.25
Wisla Krakow
1.33
Lechia Gdansk
1.33
Podbeskidzie
1.50
Miedz Legnica
1.50
Widzew II
1.58
Chemik Bydgoszcz
1.58
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.58
Sokół Ostróda
1.58
Górnik Polkowice
1.58
Górnik Zabrze II
1.58
Luzino
1.58
Wisła Płock II
1.58
Sokół Kleczew
1.58
Kluczevia Stargard
1.58
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.58
Wigry Suwałki
1.58
Kluczbork
1.58
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.58
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.58
Świt Skolwin
1.67
Resovia Rzeszów
2.00
Kalisz
2.00
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
2.00
Tychy 71
2.00
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Cracovia Krakow
2.00
Nieciecza
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.00
Wisla Plock
2.00
Pogoń Siedlce
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
2.50
Unia Skierniewice
2.77
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
3.00
Beskid
3.00
Polonia Środa
3.00
Ruch Chorzów
3.00
Chrobry Głogów
3.00
Górnik Łęczna
5.00
Motor Lublin is 1.00 goals better than Legia Warszawa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Motor Lublin or Draw✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied 45.2% · @ 2.01
Edge
+4.2%
22%
26%
51%
covers Motor Lublin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Motor Lublin or Legia Warszawa✓ Hit
70.9%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.20
Edge
-4.9%
22%
26%
51%
covers Motor Lublin + Legia Warszawa
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Draw or Legia Warszawa✗ Miss
79.8%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.15
Edge
+0.7%
22%
26%
51%
covers Draw + Legia Warszawa
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.46-6.4%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.48+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
20.3%
@ 3.21-8.4%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.29+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.00
Under
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
5.2%
@ 8.00-6.4%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.05+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.00
Under
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Motor Lublin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 22.00-3.3%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
29.00
Bet365
15.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Legia Warszawa over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.7%
@ 1.13-4.1%
Under
23.3%
@ 4.77+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.30
Legia Warszawa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.8%
@ 1.69-11.9%
Under
57.2%
@ 2.04+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.05
Unibet
1.96
Legia Warszawa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 3.25-10.3%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.29+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Under
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.23
Legia Warszawa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 6.50-8.4%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.09+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Bet365
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.08
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Motor Lublin, so a minus line means Motor Lublin give that many goals of a start and Legia Warszawa receive them. At -1, Motor Lublin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Motor Lublin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Motor Lublin)Actual: Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin -2
1.6%
@ 26.00-2.0%
Draw -2
5.2%
@ 15.00-1.1%
Legia Warszawa +2
93.2%
@ 1.05+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
26.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
1.05
Handicap -1 (Motor Lublin)Actual: Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin -1
6.8%
@ 8.88-3.0%
Draw -1
13.5%
@ 5.30-2.9%
Legia Warszawa +1
79.8%
@ 1.17+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.14
Handicap +1 (Motor Lublin)Actual: Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin +1
49.4%
@ 2.04+6.7%
Draw +1
24.5%
@ 3.49-0.4%
Legia Warszawa -1
26.1%
@ 2.68-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.92
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.00
Away
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.50
Handicap +2 (Motor Lublin)Actual: Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin +2
73.9%
@ 1.36+9.9%
Draw +2
15.8%
@ 4.55-3.3%
Legia Warszawa -2
10.3%
@ 5.15-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.29
Draw
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
3.90
Away
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Unibet
4.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motor Lublin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.75
0.62
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
0.40
0.80
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.73
0.91
0.55
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Legia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Legia Warszawa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.69
0.44
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.70
0.40
0.20
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.47
0.90
0.50
0.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
William Hil
3.20
1xBet
3.12
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.65
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.80
1xBet
5.50
Under
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.36
Under
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Under
1xBet
1.04
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Legia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
1.92
Legia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Under
1xBet
1.19
Legia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motor Lublin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.40
0.40
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.68
0.64
0.82
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Legia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Legia Warszawa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
1.06
0.44
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.40
1.20
0.40
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.58
1.10
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Under
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.68
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.30
Under
1xBet
1.08
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Legia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.30
Legia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.10
Under
1xBet
1.32
Legia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Under
1xBet
1.04
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.05
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
93.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
91.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.23
-
-
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.3%
1.34
1xBet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+13.2%
-
Draw or Away
79.8%
1.15
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
79.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
79.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+8.4%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.5%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-4.1%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
73.9%
1.36
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.29
-
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.8%
1.60
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
-
-
-
+14.1%
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.9%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-4.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motor Lublin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Karol Czubak50%
Makan Aïko17%
Mbaye Ndiaye17%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Christopher Simon0%
Filip Luberecki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ivo Rodrigues33%
Paskal Meyer33%
Tin Plavotić25%
Marek Kristián Bartoš20%
Bartosz Bereszyński17%
Makan Aïko17%
Fábio Ronaldo17%
Mbaye Ndiaye17%
Christopher Simon17%
Filip Luberecki17%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Thomas Santos0%
Karol Czubak0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivo Rodrigues67%
Mbaye Ndiaye33%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Karol Czubak0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Makan Aïko0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Christopher Simon0%
Filip Luberecki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Karol Czubak67%
Mbaye Ndiaye50%
Christopher Simon17%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Makan Aïko0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Filip Luberecki0%
Legia Warszawa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafał Adamski60%
Łukasz Zjawiński50%
Michal Ševčík33%
Bartosz Kapustka17%
Rúben Vinagre17%
Rafał Augustyniak17%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Damian Szymański0%
Mileta Rajović0%
Paweł Wszołek0%
Kamil Piątkowski0%
Ottó Hindrich0%
Henrique Arreiol0%
Wojciech Urbański0%
Jakub Żewłakow0%
Robert Deziel Jr.0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rafał Adamski20%
Wojciech Urbański20%
Bartosz Kapustka17%
Paweł Wszołek17%
Robert Deziel Jr.17%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Damian Szymański0%
Mileta Rajović0%
Rúben Vinagre0%
Rafał Augustyniak0%
Kamil Piątkowski0%
Łukasz Zjawiński0%
Michal Ševčík0%
Ottó Hindrich0%
Henrique Arreiol0%
Jakub Żewłakow0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Paweł Wszołek67%
Rúben Vinagre17%
Rafał Augustyniak17%
Kamil Piątkowski17%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Damian Szymański0%
Bartosz Kapustka0%
Mileta Rajović0%
Rafał Adamski0%
Łukasz Zjawiński0%
Michal Ševčík0%
Ottó Hindrich0%
Henrique Arreiol0%
Wojciech Urbański0%
Jakub Żewłakow0%
Robert Deziel Jr.0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Łukasz Zjawiński33%
Rafał Adamski20%
Bartosz Kapustka17%
Mileta Rajović17%
Rafał Augustyniak17%
Kamil Piątkowski17%
Arkadiusz Reca0%
Damian Szymański0%
Rúben Vinagre0%
Paweł Wszołek0%
Michal Ševčík0%
Ottó Hindrich0%
Henrique Arreiol0%
Wojciech Urbański0%
Jakub Żewłakow0%
Robert Deziel Jr.0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (29)
€43m
LG (20)
€22m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Motor Lublin's squad is €1m less valuable than Legia Warszawa's (€19m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LG (8)
€15m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa have a similar attack value (both €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
LG (3)
€5m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
PG (1)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Motor Lublin's midfield is €1m less valuable than Legia Warszawa's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (11)
€15m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
PG (10)
€4m
LG (9)
€3m
SW (8)
€2m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa have a similar defence value (both €6m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lech Poznan
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
Raków Częstochowa